Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
$message = 'The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
$stackFrame = (int) 1
$trace = [
	(int) 0 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ServerRequest.php',
		'line' => (int) 2421,
		'function' => 'deprecationWarning',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => 'The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead.'
		]
	],
	(int) 1 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php',
		'line' => (int) 73,
		'function' => 'offsetGet',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ServerRequest',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => 'catslug'
		]
	],
	(int) 2 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/Controller.php',
		'line' => (int) 610,
		'function' => 'printArticle',
		'class' => 'App\Controller\ArtileDetailController',
		'object' => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	],
	(int) 3 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php',
		'line' => (int) 120,
		'function' => 'invokeAction',
		'class' => 'Cake\Controller\Controller',
		'object' => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	],
	(int) 4 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php',
		'line' => (int) 94,
		'function' => '_invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 5 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/BaseApplication.php',
		'line' => (int) 235,
		'function' => 'dispatch',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 6 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\BaseApplication',
		'object' => object(App\Application) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 7 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 162,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 8 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 9 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 88,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 10 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 11 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 96,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 12 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 13 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 51,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 14 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Server.php',
		'line' => (int) 98,
		'function' => 'run',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\MiddlewareQueue) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 15 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/webroot/index.php',
		'line' => (int) 39,
		'function' => 'run',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Server',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Server) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	]
]
$frame = [
	'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php',
	'line' => (int) 73,
	'function' => 'offsetGet',
	'class' => 'Cake\Http\ServerRequest',
	'object' => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {
		trustProxy => false
		[protected] params => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] data => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] query => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] cookies => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] _environment => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] url => 'news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615/print'
		[protected] base => ''
		[protected] webroot => '/'
		[protected] here => '/news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615/print'
		[protected] trustedProxies => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] _input => null
		[protected] _detectors => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] _detectorCache => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] stream => object(Zend\Diactoros\PhpInputStream) {}
		[protected] uri => object(Zend\Diactoros\Uri) {}
		[protected] session => object(Cake\Http\Session) {}
		[protected] attributes => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] emulatedAttributes => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] uploadedFiles => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] protocol => null
		[protected] requestTarget => null
		[private] deprecatedProperties => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
	},
	'type' => '->',
	'args' => [
		(int) 0 => 'catslug'
	]
]
deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
$message = 'The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
$stackFrame = (int) 1
$trace = [
	(int) 0 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ServerRequest.php',
		'line' => (int) 2421,
		'function' => 'deprecationWarning',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => 'The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead.'
		]
	],
	(int) 1 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php',
		'line' => (int) 74,
		'function' => 'offsetGet',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ServerRequest',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => 'artileslug'
		]
	],
	(int) 2 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Controller/Controller.php',
		'line' => (int) 610,
		'function' => 'printArticle',
		'class' => 'App\Controller\ArtileDetailController',
		'object' => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	],
	(int) 3 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php',
		'line' => (int) 120,
		'function' => 'invokeAction',
		'class' => 'Cake\Controller\Controller',
		'object' => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	],
	(int) 4 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php',
		'line' => (int) 94,
		'function' => '_invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(App\Controller\ArtileDetailController) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 5 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/BaseApplication.php',
		'line' => (int) 235,
		'function' => 'dispatch',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 6 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\BaseApplication',
		'object' => object(App\Application) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 7 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 162,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 8 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 9 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 88,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 10 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 11 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php',
		'line' => (int) 96,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 12 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 65,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware',
		'object' => object(Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 13 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Runner.php',
		'line' => (int) 51,
		'function' => '__invoke',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 14 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Http/Server.php',
		'line' => (int) 98,
		'function' => 'run',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Runner',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Runner) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => [
			(int) 0 => object(Cake\Http\MiddlewareQueue) {},
			(int) 1 => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {},
			(int) 2 => object(Cake\Http\Response) {}
		]
	],
	(int) 15 => [
		'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/webroot/index.php',
		'line' => (int) 39,
		'function' => 'run',
		'class' => 'Cake\Http\Server',
		'object' => object(Cake\Http\Server) {},
		'type' => '->',
		'args' => []
	]
]
$frame = [
	'file' => '/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php',
	'line' => (int) 74,
	'function' => 'offsetGet',
	'class' => 'Cake\Http\ServerRequest',
	'object' => object(Cake\Http\ServerRequest) {
		trustProxy => false
		[protected] params => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] data => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] query => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] cookies => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] _environment => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] url => 'news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615/print'
		[protected] base => ''
		[protected] webroot => '/'
		[protected] here => '/news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615/print'
		[protected] trustedProxies => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] _input => null
		[protected] _detectors => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] _detectorCache => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] stream => object(Zend\Diactoros\PhpInputStream) {}
		[protected] uri => object(Zend\Diactoros\Uri) {}
		[protected] session => object(Cake\Http\Session) {}
		[protected] attributes => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] emulatedAttributes => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
		[protected] uploadedFiles => [[maximum depth reached]]
		[protected] protocol => null
		[protected] requestTarget => null
		[private] deprecatedProperties => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
	},
	'type' => '->',
	'args' => [
		(int) 0 => 'artileslug'
	]
]
deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
$response = object(Cake\Http\Response) {

	'status' => (int) 200,
	'contentType' => 'text/html',
	'headers' => [
		'Content-Type' => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
	],
	'file' => null,
	'fileRange' => [],
	'cookies' => object(Cake\Http\Cookie\CookieCollection) {},
	'cacheDirectives' => [],
	'body' => '<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN"
        "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<head>
    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
</span></span></code>
<span class="code-highlight"><code><span style="color: #000000">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;link&nbsp;rel="canonical"&nbsp;href="<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">Configure</span><span style="color: #007700">::</span><span style="color: #0000BB">read</span><span style="color: #007700">(</span><span style="color: #DD0000">'SITE_URL'</span><span style="color: #007700">);&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$urlPrefix</span><span style="color: #007700">;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">category</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">slug</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>/<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">seo_url</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>.html"/&gt;
</span></code></span>
<code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">meta&nbsp;http</span><span style="color: #007700">-</span><span style="color: #0000BB">equiv</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"Content-Type"&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">content</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"text/html;&nbsp;charset=utf-8"</span><span style="color: #007700">/&gt;
</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
$dataForView = [
	&#039;article_current&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
		&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
		&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
		&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
		&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
		&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
		&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
		&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;
	
	},
	&#039;articleid&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;metaKeywords&#039; =&gt; &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;,
	&#039;metaDesc&#039; =&gt; &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;English&#039;,
	&#039;SITE_URL&#039; =&gt; &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;,
	&#039;site_title&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change&#039;,
	&#039;adminprix&#039; =&gt; &#039;admin&#039;
]
$article_current = object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
	&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
	&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
	&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
	&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
	&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
	&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
		(int) 0 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 1 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 2 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 3 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 4 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 5 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 6 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 7 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {}
	],
	&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
	&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
		&#039;*&#039; =&gt; true,
		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; false
	],
	&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;

}
$articleid = (int) 35508
$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;
$metaDesc = &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
$lang = &#039;English&#039;
$SITE_URL = &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;
$site_title = &#039;im4change&#039;
$adminprix = &#039;admin&#039;</pre><pre class="stack-trace">include - APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8
Cake\View\View::_evaluate() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1413
Cake\View\View::_render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1374
Cake\View\View::renderLayout() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 927
Cake\View\View::render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 885
Cake\Controller\Controller::render() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 791
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 126
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51</pre></div></pre>news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615.html"/>
    <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/>
    <link href="https://im4change.in/css/control.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"
          media="all"/>
    <title>NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector | Im4change.org</title>
    <meta name="description" content="
&nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first..."/>
    <script src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-1.10.2.js"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-migrate.min.js"></script>
    <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript">

        $(document).ready(function () {
            var img = $("img")[0]; // Get my img elem
            var pic_real_width, pic_real_height;
            $("<img/>") // Make in memory copy of image to avoid css issues
                .attr("src", $(img).attr("src"))
                .load(function () {
                    pic_real_width = this.width;   // Note: $(this).width() will not
                    pic_real_height = this.height; // work for in memory images.
                });
        });
    </script>
    <style type="text/css">
        @media screen {
            div.divFooter {
                display: block;
            }
        }

        @media print {
            .printbutton {
                display: none !important;
            }
        }
    </style>
</head>
<body>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="98%" align="center">
    <tr>
        <td class="top_bg">
            <div class="divFooter">
                <img src="https://im4change.in/images/logo1.jpg" height="59" border="0"
                     alt="Resource centre on India's rural distress" style="padding-top:14px;"/>
            </div>

        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td id="topspace">&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr id="topspace">
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-bottom:1px solid #000; padding-top:10px;" class="printbutton">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td width="100%">
            <h1 class="news_headlines" style="font-style:normal">
                <strong>Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector</strong></h1>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td width="100%" style="font-family:Arial, 'Segoe Script', 'Segoe UI', sans-serif, serif"><font size="3">
                <div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br /><br />The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> </div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br /><br />It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br /><br />The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br /><br />Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br /><br /></div><div align="justify">The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">According to the <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg" title="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w" title="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3" title="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br /><br />It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release" title="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong><em><br />References</em></strong><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div>Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br /><a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br /><br />Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br /><br />First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br /><br />Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /><br />Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br /><strong><br />Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-top:1px solid #000; border-bottom:1px solid #000;padding-top:10px;">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table></body>
</html>'

}
$maxBufferLength = (int) 8192
$file = '/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php'
$line = (int) 853
$message = 'Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853'
Cake\Http\ResponseEmitter::emit() - CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48
Cake\Http\Server::emit() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 141
[main] - ROOT/webroot/index.php, line 39

Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 148]
Code Context
            $response->getStatusCode(),

            ($reasonPhrase ? ' ' . $reasonPhrase : '')

        ));
$response = object(Cake\Http\Response) {

	'status' => (int) 200,
	'contentType' => 'text/html',
	'headers' => [
		'Content-Type' => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
	],
	'file' => null,
	'fileRange' => [],
	'cookies' => object(Cake\Http\Cookie\CookieCollection) {},
	'cacheDirectives' => [],
	'body' => '<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN"
        "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<head>
    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
</span></span></code>
<span class="code-highlight"><code><span style="color: #000000">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;link&nbsp;rel="canonical"&nbsp;href="<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">Configure</span><span style="color: #007700">::</span><span style="color: #0000BB">read</span><span style="color: #007700">(</span><span style="color: #DD0000">'SITE_URL'</span><span style="color: #007700">);&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$urlPrefix</span><span style="color: #007700">;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">category</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">slug</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>/<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">seo_url</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>.html"/&gt;
</span></code></span>
<code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">meta&nbsp;http</span><span style="color: #007700">-</span><span style="color: #0000BB">equiv</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"Content-Type"&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">content</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"text/html;&nbsp;charset=utf-8"</span><span style="color: #007700">/&gt;
</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
$dataForView = [
	&#039;article_current&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
		&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
		&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
		&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
		&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
		&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
		&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
		&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;
	
	},
	&#039;articleid&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;metaKeywords&#039; =&gt; &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;,
	&#039;metaDesc&#039; =&gt; &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;English&#039;,
	&#039;SITE_URL&#039; =&gt; &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;,
	&#039;site_title&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change&#039;,
	&#039;adminprix&#039; =&gt; &#039;admin&#039;
]
$article_current = object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
	&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
	&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
	&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
	&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
	&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
	&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
		(int) 0 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 1 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 2 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 3 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 4 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 5 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 6 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 7 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {}
	],
	&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
	&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
		&#039;*&#039; =&gt; true,
		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; false
	],
	&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;

}
$articleid = (int) 35508
$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;
$metaDesc = &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
$lang = &#039;English&#039;
$SITE_URL = &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;
$site_title = &#039;im4change&#039;
$adminprix = &#039;admin&#039;</pre><pre class="stack-trace">include - APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8
Cake\View\View::_evaluate() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1413
Cake\View\View::_render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1374
Cake\View\View::renderLayout() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 927
Cake\View\View::render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 885
Cake\Controller\Controller::render() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 791
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 126
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51</pre></div></pre>news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615.html"/>
    <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/>
    <link href="https://im4change.in/css/control.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"
          media="all"/>
    <title>NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector | Im4change.org</title>
    <meta name="description" content="
&nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first..."/>
    <script src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-1.10.2.js"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-migrate.min.js"></script>
    <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript">

        $(document).ready(function () {
            var img = $("img")[0]; // Get my img elem
            var pic_real_width, pic_real_height;
            $("<img/>") // Make in memory copy of image to avoid css issues
                .attr("src", $(img).attr("src"))
                .load(function () {
                    pic_real_width = this.width;   // Note: $(this).width() will not
                    pic_real_height = this.height; // work for in memory images.
                });
        });
    </script>
    <style type="text/css">
        @media screen {
            div.divFooter {
                display: block;
            }
        }

        @media print {
            .printbutton {
                display: none !important;
            }
        }
    </style>
</head>
<body>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="98%" align="center">
    <tr>
        <td class="top_bg">
            <div class="divFooter">
                <img src="https://im4change.in/images/logo1.jpg" height="59" border="0"
                     alt="Resource centre on India's rural distress" style="padding-top:14px;"/>
            </div>

        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td id="topspace">&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr id="topspace">
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-bottom:1px solid #000; padding-top:10px;" class="printbutton">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td width="100%">
            <h1 class="news_headlines" style="font-style:normal">
                <strong>Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector</strong></h1>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td width="100%" style="font-family:Arial, 'Segoe Script', 'Segoe UI', sans-serif, serif"><font size="3">
                <div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br /><br />The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> </div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br /><br />It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br /><br />The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br /><br />Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br /><br /></div><div align="justify">The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">According to the <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg" title="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w" title="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3" title="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br /><br />It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release" title="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong><em><br />References</em></strong><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div>Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br /><a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br /><br />Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br /><br />First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br /><br />Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /><br />Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br /><strong><br />Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-top:1px solid #000; border-bottom:1px solid #000;padding-top:10px;">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table></body>
</html>'

}
$reasonPhrase = 'OK'
header - [internal], line ??
Cake\Http\ResponseEmitter::emitStatusLine() - CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 148
Cake\Http\ResponseEmitter::emit() - CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 54
Cake\Http\Server::emit() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 141
[main] - ROOT/webroot/index.php, line 39

Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 181]
Code Context
                    $value

                ), $first);

                $first = false;
$response = object(Cake\Http\Response) {

	'status' => (int) 200,
	'contentType' => 'text/html',
	'headers' => [
		'Content-Type' => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		]
	],
	'file' => null,
	'fileRange' => [],
	'cookies' => object(Cake\Http\Cookie\CookieCollection) {},
	'cacheDirectives' => [],
	'body' => '<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN"
        "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<head>
    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
</span></span></code>
<span class="code-highlight"><code><span style="color: #000000">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;link&nbsp;rel="canonical"&nbsp;href="<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">Configure</span><span style="color: #007700">::</span><span style="color: #0000BB">read</span><span style="color: #007700">(</span><span style="color: #DD0000">'SITE_URL'</span><span style="color: #007700">);&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$urlPrefix</span><span style="color: #007700">;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">category</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">slug</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>/<span style="color: #0000BB">&lt;?php&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">echo&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">$article_current</span><span style="color: #007700">-&gt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">seo_url</span><span style="color: #007700">;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">?&gt;</span>.html"/&gt;
</span></code></span>
<code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">meta&nbsp;http</span><span style="color: #007700">-</span><span style="color: #0000BB">equiv</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"Content-Type"&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">content</span><span style="color: #007700">=</span><span style="color: #DD0000">"text/html;&nbsp;charset=utf-8"</span><span style="color: #007700">/&gt;
</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f09dfb400f2-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
$dataForView = [
	&#039;article_current&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
		&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
		&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
		&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
		&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
		&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
		&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
		&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
		&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
		&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
		&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
		&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [[maximum depth reached]],
		&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;
	
	},
	&#039;articleid&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;metaKeywords&#039; =&gt; &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;,
	&#039;metaDesc&#039; =&gt; &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;English&#039;,
	&#039;SITE_URL&#039; =&gt; &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;,
	&#039;site_title&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change&#039;,
	&#039;adminprix&#039; =&gt; &#039;admin&#039;
]
$article_current = object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 35508,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;article_img&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;article_img_thumb&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg&#039;,
	&#039;status&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;show_on_home&#039; =&gt; (int) 1,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;EN&#039;,
	&#039;category_id&#039; =&gt; (int) 4,
	&#039;tag_keyword&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;seo_url&#039; =&gt; &#039;agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615&#039;,
	&#039;meta_title&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_keywords&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;meta_description&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;noindex&#039; =&gt; (int) 0,
	&#039;publish_date&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
	&#039;most_visit_section_id&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;article_big_img&#039; =&gt; null,
	&#039;liveid&#039; =&gt; (int) 4683615,
	&#039;created&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;modified&#039; =&gt; object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	&#039;edate&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;tags&#039; =&gt; [
		(int) 0 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 1 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 2 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 3 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 4 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 5 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 6 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 7 =&gt; object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {}
	],
	&#039;category&#039; =&gt; object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
	&#039;[new]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[accessible]&#039; =&gt; [
		&#039;*&#039; =&gt; true,
		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; false
	],
	&#039;[dirty]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[original]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[virtual]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[hasErrors]&#039; =&gt; false,
	&#039;[errors]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[invalid]&#039; =&gt; [],
	&#039;[repository]&#039; =&gt; &#039;Articles&#039;

}
$articleid = (int) 35508
$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI&#039;
$metaDesc = &#039;
&amp;nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&amp;agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price &lt;em&gt;(at 2011-12 prices)&lt;/em&gt; of the &#039;Agriculture, forestry &amp;amp; fishing&#039; sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 &lt;em&gt;(please consult table-1)&lt;/em&gt;. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops for 2017-18 and targets based on &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; sowings &lt;em&gt;(please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth &quot; width=&quot;381&quot; height=&quot;204&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source:&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In its &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;press release&lt;/a&gt; dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production &lt;em&gt;(as in August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &amp;quot;eye estimate&amp;quot; by state governments &lt;em&gt;(by August 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crops as in August 2017 &lt;em&gt;(and not as in December, 2017)&lt;/em&gt;, says the agriculture ministry&amp;rsquo;s press release.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The agriculture ministry&#039;s press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and hence lower &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season &lt;em&gt;(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)&lt;/em&gt; and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season &lt;em&gt;(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)&lt;/em&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season&lt;/a&gt; Report&lt;/em&gt; by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Apart from &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; production due to a rise in area coverage under &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops till 5th January, 2018 &lt;em&gt;(which is 58.6 million hectare)&lt;/em&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;first advance estimates&lt;/a&gt; in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp;amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&amp;rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &amp;lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&amp;rsquo; sector&#039;s GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The critical question is: If the DES &lt;em&gt;(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)&lt;/em&gt;, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg&quot;&gt;final estimates&lt;/a&gt; of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2EosE6w&quot;&gt;February next year&lt;/a&gt;, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate &lt;a href=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot; title=&quot;http://bit.ly/2FifHN3&quot;&gt;clarification&lt;/a&gt; on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;predicted by the CSO&lt;/a&gt; (under MoSPI)? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 &lt;em&gt;(much later than February, 2019)&lt;/em&gt;, if the present trend or cycle of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot; title=&quot;http://mospi.gov.in/press-release&quot;&gt;press releases&lt;/a&gt; by MoSPI continues. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;References&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456&lt;/a&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;Horticulture Production 2017-18&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp;amp; Farmers Welfare, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- &lt;em&gt;Kharif&lt;/em&gt; &amp;amp; &lt;em&gt;Rabi&lt;/em&gt;, Arthapedia, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&amp;nbsp; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
$lang = &#039;English&#039;
$SITE_URL = &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;
$site_title = &#039;im4change&#039;
$adminprix = &#039;admin&#039;</pre><pre class="stack-trace">include - APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8
Cake\View\View::_evaluate() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1413
Cake\View\View::_render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1374
Cake\View\View::renderLayout() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 927
Cake\View\View::render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 885
Cake\Controller\Controller::render() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 791
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 126
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51</pre></div></pre>news-alerts-57/agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615.html"/>
    <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/>
    <link href="https://im4change.in/css/control.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"
          media="all"/>
    <title>NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector | Im4change.org</title>
    <meta name="description" content="
&nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first..."/>
    <script src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-1.10.2.js"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="https://im4change.in/js/jquery-migrate.min.js"></script>
    <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript">

        $(document).ready(function () {
            var img = $("img")[0]; // Get my img elem
            var pic_real_width, pic_real_height;
            $("<img/>") // Make in memory copy of image to avoid css issues
                .attr("src", $(img).attr("src"))
                .load(function () {
                    pic_real_width = this.width;   // Note: $(this).width() will not
                    pic_real_height = this.height; // work for in memory images.
                });
        });
    </script>
    <style type="text/css">
        @media screen {
            div.divFooter {
                display: block;
            }
        }

        @media print {
            .printbutton {
                display: none !important;
            }
        }
    </style>
</head>
<body>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="98%" align="center">
    <tr>
        <td class="top_bg">
            <div class="divFooter">
                <img src="https://im4change.in/images/logo1.jpg" height="59" border="0"
                     alt="Resource centre on India's rural distress" style="padding-top:14px;"/>
            </div>

        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td id="topspace">&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr id="topspace">
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-bottom:1px solid #000; padding-top:10px;" class="printbutton">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td width="100%">
            <h1 class="news_headlines" style="font-style:normal">
                <strong>Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector</strong></h1>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td width="100%" style="font-family:Arial, 'Segoe Script', 'Segoe UI', sans-serif, serif"><font size="3">
                <div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br /><br />The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> </div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br /><br />It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br /><br />The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br /><br />Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br /><br /></div><div align="justify">The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">According to the <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg" title="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w" title="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3" title="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br /><br />It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release" title="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong><em><br />References</em></strong><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div>Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br /><a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br /><br />Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br /><br />First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br /><br />Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /><br />Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br /><strong><br />Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>&nbsp;</td>
    </tr>

    <tr>
        <td height="50" style="border-top:1px solid #000; border-bottom:1px solid #000;padding-top:10px;">
            <form><input type="button" value=" Print this page "
                         onclick="window.print();return false;"/></form>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table></body>
</html>'

}
$cookies = []
$values = [
	(int) 0 => 'text/html; charset=UTF-8'
]
$name = 'Content-Type'
$first = true
$value = 'text/html; charset=UTF-8'
header - [internal], line ??
Cake\Http\ResponseEmitter::emitHeaders() - CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 181
Cake\Http\ResponseEmitter::emit() - CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 55
Cake\Http\Server::emit() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 141
[main] - ROOT/webroot/index.php, line 39

<head>

    <link rel="canonical" href="<?php echo Configure::read('SITE_URL'); ?><?php echo $urlPrefix;?><?php echo $article_current->category->slug; ?>/<?php echo $article_current->seo_url; ?>.html"/>

    <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/>

$viewFile = '/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp'
$dataForView = [
	'article_current' => object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

		'id' => (int) 35508,
		'title' => 'Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector',
		'subheading' => '',
		'description' => '<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br />
<br />
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong>
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> 
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br />
<br />
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br />
<br />
In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br />
<br />
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br />
<br />
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br />
<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
According to the <em><a href="tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br />
<br />
The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br />
<br />
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br />
<br />
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<strong><em><br />
References</em></strong><br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br />
<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br />
<br />
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br />
<br />
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;
<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access
&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br />
<br />
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
<br />
<strong><br />
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong>
</div>',
		'credit_writer' => '',
		'article_img' => 'im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg',
		'article_img_thumb' => 'im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg',
		'status' => (int) 1,
		'show_on_home' => (int) 1,
		'lang' => 'EN',
		'category_id' => (int) 4,
		'tag_keyword' => '',
		'seo_url' => 'agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615',
		'meta_title' => null,
		'meta_keywords' => null,
		'meta_description' => null,
		'noindex' => (int) 0,
		'publish_date' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
		'most_visit_section_id' => null,
		'article_big_img' => null,
		'liveid' => (int) 4683615,
		'created' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		'modified' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
		'edate' => '',
		'tags' => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		'category' => object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
		'[new]' => false,
		'[accessible]' => [
			[maximum depth reached]
		],
		'[dirty]' => [[maximum depth reached]],
		'[original]' => [[maximum depth reached]],
		'[virtual]' => [[maximum depth reached]],
		'[hasErrors]' => false,
		'[errors]' => [[maximum depth reached]],
		'[invalid]' => [[maximum depth reached]],
		'[repository]' => 'Articles'
	
	},
	'articleid' => (int) 35508,
	'metaTitle' => 'NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector',
	'metaKeywords' => 'Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI',
	'metaDesc' => '
&nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...',
	'disp' => '<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br /><br />The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> </div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br /><br />It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br /><br />The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br /><br />Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br /><br /></div><div align="justify">The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">According to the <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg" title="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w" title="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3" title="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br /><br />It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release" title="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong><em><br />References</em></strong><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div>Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br /><a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br /><br />Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br /><br />First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br /><br />Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /><br />Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br /><strong><br />Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>',
	'lang' => 'English',
	'SITE_URL' => 'https://im4change.in/',
	'site_title' => 'im4change',
	'adminprix' => 'admin'
]
$article_current = object(App\Model\Entity\Article) {

	'id' => (int) 35508,
	'title' => 'Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector',
	'subheading' => '',
	'description' => '<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br />
<br />
The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong>
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> 
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br />
<br />
It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br />
<br />
In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br />
<br />
The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br />
<br />
Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br />
<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
According to the <em><a href="tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br />
<br />
The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br />
<br />
Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br />
<br />
It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<strong><em><br />
References</em></strong><br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, 
released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry 
of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br />
<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br />
<br />
Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br />
<br />
First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;
<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="../news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access
&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
<br />
Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br />
<br />
Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="../latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br />
<br />
<strong><br />
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong>
</div>',
	'credit_writer' => '',
	'article_img' => 'im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg',
	'article_img_thumb' => 'im4change_84Image_Farm.jpg',
	'status' => (int) 1,
	'show_on_home' => (int) 1,
	'lang' => 'EN',
	'category_id' => (int) 4,
	'tag_keyword' => '',
	'seo_url' => 'agriculture-ministry-differs-with-cso-over-estimated-growth-of-farm-sector-4683615',
	'meta_title' => null,
	'meta_keywords' => null,
	'meta_description' => null,
	'noindex' => (int) 0,
	'publish_date' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenDate) {},
	'most_visit_section_id' => null,
	'article_big_img' => null,
	'liveid' => (int) 4683615,
	'created' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	'modified' => object(Cake\I18n\FrozenTime) {},
	'edate' => '',
	'tags' => [
		(int) 0 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 1 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 2 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 3 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 4 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 5 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 6 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {},
		(int) 7 => object(Cake\ORM\Entity) {}
	],
	'category' => object(App\Model\Entity\Category) {},
	'[new]' => false,
	'[accessible]' => [
		'*' => true,
		'id' => false
	],
	'[dirty]' => [],
	'[original]' => [],
	'[virtual]' => [],
	'[hasErrors]' => false,
	'[errors]' => [],
	'[invalid]' => [],
	'[repository]' => 'Articles'

}
$articleid = (int) 35508
$metaTitle = 'NEWS ALERTS | Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector'
$metaKeywords = 'Horticulture,foodgrain production,Gross Value Added (GVA),Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture,Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,Central Statistics Office (CSO),CSO,MoSPI'
$metaDesc = '
&nbsp;


The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The first...'
$disp = '<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-&agrave;-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).<br /><br />The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price <em>(at 2011-12 prices)</em> of the 'Agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 <em>(please consult table-1)</em>. Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major <em>kharif</em> crops for 2017-18 and targets based on <em>rabi</em> sowings <em>(please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access)</em>. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong>Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore&nbsp;</strong></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_13.jpg" alt="Table 1 Agricultural GVA growth " width="381" height="204" /><br />&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source:</strong>&nbsp;Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access</em> </div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of <em>kharif</em> foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used.<br /><br />It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />In its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">press release</a> dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production <em>(as in August 2017)</em>, which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in <em>kharif</em> production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. <br /><br />The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely &quot;eye estimate&quot; by state governments <em>(by August 2017)</em>, says the press note of the agriculture ministry.<br /><br />Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different <em>kharif</em> crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as in August 2017 <em>(and not as in December, 2017)</em>, says the agriculture ministry&rsquo;s press release.<br /><br /></div><div align="justify">The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under <em>kharif </em>crops and hence lower <em>kharif </em>crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season <em>(104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July)</em> and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season <em>(87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September)</em>.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">According to the <em><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf">2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season</a> Report</em> by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Apart from <em>kharif</em> crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about <em>rabi</em> production due to a rise in area coverage under <em>rabi</em> crops till 5th January, 2018 <em>(which is 58.6 million hectare)</em>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">first advance estimates</a> in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits &amp; vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country&rsquo;s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018.<br /><br />Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire &lsquo;Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing&rsquo; sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">The critical question is: If the DES <em>(under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare)</em>, in the usual manner, is going to bring out the <a href="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg" title="http://bit.ly/2DdWpYg">final estimates</a> of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in <a href="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w" title="http://bit.ly/2EosE6w">February next year</a>, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate <a href="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3" title="http://bit.ly/2FifHN3">clarification</a> on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">predicted by the CSO</a> (under MoSPI)? <br /><br />It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 <em>(much later than February, 2019)</em>, if the present trend or cycle of <a href="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release" title="http://mospi.gov.in/press-release">press releases</a> by MoSPI continues. <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><strong><em><br />References</em></strong><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a> &nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a> to access<div align="justify">&nbsp;</div>Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,<br /><a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a> <br /><br />Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a> to access <br /><br />First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a> to access <br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- <em>Kharif</em> &amp; <em>Rabi</em>, Arthapedia, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a> to read more&nbsp; <br /><br />Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br />Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp;<br /><br />Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a> to access&nbsp; <br /><br /><strong><br />Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>'
$lang = 'English'
$SITE_URL = 'https://im4change.in/'
$site_title = 'im4change'
$adminprix = 'admin'

include - APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8
Cake\View\View::_evaluate() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1413
Cake\View\View::_render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 1374
Cake\View\View::renderLayout() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 927
Cake\View\View::render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 885
Cake\Controller\Controller::render() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 791
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 126
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51

Agriculture ministry differs with CSO over estimated growth of farm sector

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has contended that the growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) by the agrarian sector will not decline in 2017-18 vis-à-vis 2016-17 as has been predicted by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The first advance estimates of CSO show that the growth rate in GVA at basic price (at 2011-12 prices) of the 'Agriculture, forestry & fishing' sector is likely to dip from 4.9 percent to 2.1 percent between 2016-17 and 2017-18 (please consult table-1). Among other things, the press note dated 5th January, 2018 of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) makes it clear that the CSO has calculated the advance estimates by extrapolating the first advance estimates of production of major kharif crops for 2017-18 and targets based on rabi sowings (please click here to access).   Table 1: First advance estimates of GVA at basic price by economic activity (at 2011-12 prices), in Rs. crore      Source: Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, CSO, MoSPI, please click here to access   It must be noted that GVA is the difference between GDP and net indirect taxes.    The press note of MoSPI further mentions that the information, which has been furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC) of agriculture ministry, indicate that the production of kharif foodgrains during agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture) has been used. It should be noted that the first advance estimates of production of foodgrains for 2017-18 was released on 22nd September, 2017. However, the first advance estimates of horticulture crops for 2017-18 was released much later viz. on 2nd January, 2018. In its press release dated 7th January, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has clarified that the data on crop coverage and resultant estimated production (as in August 2017), which has been shared by its Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES) with the MoSPI, does not take into account the increased area coverage under kharif crops by December 2017 on account of improved south west monsoon rainfall in the subsequent months. Therefore, the concomitant increase in kharif production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops has been left out in the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO. The estimates by DES, which has been shared with MoSPI, are largely "eye estimate" by state governments (by August 2017), says the press note of the agriculture ministry. Due to delayed onset of south west monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall in the initial months of the entire monsoon period (June-September) in some places, the area coverage under different kharif crops as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year. So the first advance estimates of national income by the CSO actually reflects poorer foodgrain production owing to computation based on area coverage under kharif crops as in August 2017 (and not as in December, 2017), says the agriculture ministry’s press release. The agriculture ministry's press release mentions about the delay in onset of south west monsoons that caused lower area coverage under kharif crops and hence lower kharif crop production as of August 2017. However, a report entitled 2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole were more than the long period average (LPA) during first two months of the monsoon season (104 percent of LPA in June and 102 percent of LPA in July) and were less than LPA during the last two months of the season (87 percent of LPA in August and 88 percent of LPA in September).    According to the 2016 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report by IMD, the monthly south west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole was 89 percent of LPA in June, 107 percent of LPA in July, 91 percent of LPA in August and 97 percent of LPA in September.    Apart from kharif crop production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is also hopeful about rabi production due to a rise in area coverage under rabi crops till 5th January, 2018 (which is 58.6 million hectare). The first advance estimates in case of horticulture shows that as of December, 2017, area coverage under fruits & vegetables stands at 24.92 million hectare, as against the previous year final of 24.85 million hectare. The country’s horticulture output is expected to be 305.4 million tonnes in 2017-18 as compared to 300.6 million tonnes in the previous year, as per the first advance estimates released on 2nd January, 2018. Since the crop sector, which includes both agriculture and horticulture, account for nearly 60 percent of the entire ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector's GVA, so the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures of the agrarian sector are released.    The critical question is: If the DES (under the DAC, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare), in the usual manner, is going to bring out the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops for 2017-18 in February next year, why should the agriculture ministry release an immediate clarification on the expected growth rate in real GVA originating from the agrarian sector for 2017-18, which has been recently predicted by the CSO (under MoSPI)? It may be noted that the final estimates of the national income for the year 2017-18 would be released in May, 2019 (much later than February, 2019), if the present trend or cycle of press releases by MoSPI continues.   References   Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456     Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please click here to access   Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158 Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please click here to access First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, please click here to access    2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please click here to access    2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please click here to access   Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please click here to access  Cropping seasons of India- Kharif & Rabi, Arthapedia, please click here to read more  Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please click here to access  Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please click here to access  Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please click here to access  Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak