Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
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&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
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&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
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Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
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Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;English&#039;,
	&#039;SITE_URL&#039; =&gt; &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;,
	&#039;site_title&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change&#039;,
	&#039;adminprix&#039; =&gt; &#039;admin&#039;
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	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 31268,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
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However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
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In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
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In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
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It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
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As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
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Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
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&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
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Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
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First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
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Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
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Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Oilseeds,Wheat,Wheat Production,rice,Rice Cultivation,Pulse Production,Pulses,Agricultural Growth,foodgrain,foodgrain production,Food Security,drought&#039;
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br /><br />However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br /><br />In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br /><br />In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br /><br />It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br /><br /><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br /><em></em></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br /><br />The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br /><br />As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br /><br />As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br /><br />Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br /><br />The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br /><br />As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /></em><br />In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br /><br />Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br /><br />The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in" title="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br /><br />The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br /><br />It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><em>References<br /></em></strong><br />Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</div><div align="justify"><br />First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm" title="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br /><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf" title="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php" title="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php</a><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />&nbsp;<br />Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br />2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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$articleid = (int) 31268
$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Oilseeds,Wheat,Wheat Production,rice,Rice Cultivation,Pulse Production,Pulses,Agricultural Growth,foodgrain,foodgrain production,Food Security,drought&#039;
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br /><br />However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br /><br />In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br /><br />In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br /><br />It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br /><br /><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br /><em></em></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br /><br />The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br /><br />As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br /><br />As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br /><br />Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br /><br />The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br /><br />As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /></em><br />In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br /><br />Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br /><br />The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in" title="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br /><br />The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br /><br />It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><em>References<br /></em></strong><br />Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</div><div align="justify"><br />First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm" title="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br /><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf" title="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php" title="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php</a><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />&nbsp;<br />Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br />2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67ef9adf0ff11-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;lang&#039; =&gt; &#039;English&#039;,
	&#039;SITE_URL&#039; =&gt; &#039;https://im4change.in/&#039;,
	&#039;site_title&#039; =&gt; &#039;im4change&#039;,
	&#039;adminprix&#039; =&gt; &#039;admin&#039;
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	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 31268,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;
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However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;
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In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
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In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;
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It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;
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As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
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Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;
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&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;
References&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
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Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access
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First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
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Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
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Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;../india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;
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$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry&#039;
$metaKeywords = &#039;Oilseeds,Wheat,Wheat Production,rice,Rice Cultivation,Pulse Production,Pulses,Agricultural Growth,foodgrain,foodgrain production,Food Security,drought&#039;
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&amp;rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 1&quot; width=&quot;435&quot; height=&quot;303&quot; /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&amp;agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg&quot; alt=&quot;Chart 2&quot; width=&quot;434&quot; height=&quot;267&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Source: &lt;/strong&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html&quot;&gt;Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output&lt;/a&gt;, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in&quot;&gt;www.arthapedia.in&lt;/a&gt; (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering &lt;em&gt;kharif&lt;/em&gt; as well as &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops take into account firmed up figures on &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops and tentative figures on area coverage of &lt;em&gt;rabi &lt;/em&gt;crops. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for &lt;em&gt;rabi&lt;/em&gt; crops and better yield estimates of &lt;em&gt;kharif &lt;/em&gt;crops are released in April-May.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;3rd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf&quot; title=&quot;2nd advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp;amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf&quot; title=&quot;1st advance estimate 2015-16&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp;amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot; title=&quot;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&quot;&gt;http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp;amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot; title=&quot;http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC I&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC II&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf&quot; title=&quot;SC III&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please &lt;a href=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/india-focus.php&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Farmers&amp;rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access &lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to access&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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            <h1 class="news_headlines" style="font-style:normal">
                <strong>Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br /><br />However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br /><br />In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br /><br />In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br /><br />It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br /><br /><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br /><em></em></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br /><br />The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br /><br />As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br /><br />As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br /><br />Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br /><br />The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br /><br />As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /></em><br />In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br /><br />Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br /><br />The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in" title="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br /><br />The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br /><br />It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><em>References<br /></em></strong><br />Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</div><div align="justify"><br />First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm" title="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br /><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf" title="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php" title="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php</a><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />&nbsp;<br />Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br />2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>               </font>
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		'title' => 'Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry',
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		'description' => '<div align="justify">
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br />
<br />
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br />
<br />
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br />
<br />
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br />
<br />
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br />
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br />
<br />
<em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br />
<em>
</em>
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br />
<br />
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br />
<br />
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br />
<br />
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br />
<br />
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br />
<br />
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br />
<br />
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br />
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
</em><br />
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br />
<br />
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br />
<br />
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br />
<br />
The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br />
<br />
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br />
<br />
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br />
<br />
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
<strong><em>
References<br />
</em></strong><br />
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br />
<br />
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br />
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="../india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php<br />
</a><br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />
&nbsp;<br />
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong>
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	'metaTitle' => 'NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry',
	'metaKeywords' => 'Oilseeds,Wheat,Wheat Production,rice,Rice Cultivation,Pulse Production,Pulses,Agricultural Growth,foodgrain,foodgrain production,Food Security,drought',
	'metaDesc' => '
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...',
	'disp' => '<div align="justify">Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br /><br />However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br /><br />In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br /><br />In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br /><br />It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br /><br /><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br /><em></em></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br /><br />The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br /><br />As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br /><br />As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br /><br />Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br /><br />The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br /><br />As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /></em><br />In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br /><br />Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br /><br />The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in" title="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br /><br />The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br /><br />It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><em>References<br /></em></strong><br />Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</div><div align="justify"><br />First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm" title="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br /><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf" title="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php" title="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php</a><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />&nbsp;<br />Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br />2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>',
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	'title' => 'Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry',
	'subheading' => '',
	'description' => '<div align="justify">
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br />
<br />
However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br />
<br />
In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br />
<br />
In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br />
<br />
It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br />
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br />
<br />
<em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br />
<em>
</em>
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br />
<br />
The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br />
<br />
As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br />
<br />
As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br />
<br />
Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br />
<br />
The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br />
<br />
As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br />
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
</em><br />
In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br />
<br />
Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="../latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br />
<br />
The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br />
<br />
The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br />
<br />
The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br />
<br />
The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br />
<br />
It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
<strong><em>
References<br />
</em></strong><br />
Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br />
<br />
Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br />
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
<br />
Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="../india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php<br />
</a><br />
</div>
<div align="justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div align="justify">
Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />
&nbsp;<br />
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br />
<br />
Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="../news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong>
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$metaTitle = 'NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry'
$metaKeywords = 'Oilseeds,Wheat,Wheat Production,rice,Rice Cultivation,Pulse Production,Pulses,Agricultural Growth,foodgrain,foodgrain production,Food Security,drought'
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Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. 

However, if one were to believe a...'
$disp = '<div align="justify">Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. <br /><br />However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. <br /><br />In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).<br /><br />In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.<br /><br />It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court&rsquo;s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%201_4.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="435" height="303" /><br /><br /><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em><br /><em></em></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em>Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</em> <br /><br />The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-&agrave;-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-&agrave;-vis production in 2013-14. <br /><br />As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).<br /><br />As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year. &nbsp;<br /><br />Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. <br /><br />The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-&agrave;-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. <br /><br />As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts. &nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Chart%202_4.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="434" height="267" /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /></em><br />In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.<br /><br />Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/drought-fails-to-dampen-foodgrain-output-sayantan-bera-4679313.html">Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output</a>, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).<br /><br />The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in" title="http://www.arthapedia.in">www.arthapedia.in</a> (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.<br /><br />The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when <em>kharif </em>sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when <em>rabi </em>sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering <em>kharif</em> as well as <em>rabi </em>crops take into account firmed up figures on <em>kharif </em>area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of <em>kharif </em>crops and tentative figures on area coverage of <em>rabi </em>crops. <br /><br />The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for <em>rabi</em> crops and better yield estimates of <em>kharif </em>crops are released in April-May.<br /><br />It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify"><br /><strong><em>References<br /></em></strong><br />Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/3rd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="3rd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2nd%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16.pdf" title="2nd advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access</div><div align="justify"><br />First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics &amp; Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/1st%20advance%20estimate%20of%20agricultural%20production%202015-16_1.pdf" title="1st advance estimate 2015-16">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds &amp; Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, <a href="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm" title="http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm">http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm</a> <br /><br />Cropping seasons of India- Kharif &amp; Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please <a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Cropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%26_Rabi">click here</a> to access <br /><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20I.pdf" title="SC I">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20II.pdf" title="SC II">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify"><br />Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please <a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/SC%20III.pdf" title="SC III">click here</a> to access<br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please <a href="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf" title="http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Rainfed%20agriculture.pdf">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /></div><div align="justify">Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, <a href="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php" title="https://im4change.in/india-focus.php">http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php</a><br /></div><div align="justify">&nbsp;</div><div align="justify">Farmers&rsquo; prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/farmers-prospect-destroyed-by-erratic-rains-4678892.html">click here</a> to access <br />&nbsp;<br />Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/incentivize-pulses-production-to-check-spiralling-prices-4677621.html">click here</a> to access<br /><br />Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/deepening-agrarian-crisis-endangers-food-security-4676003.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br />2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please <a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/2015-is-likely-to-be-a-drought-year-4677253.html">click here</a> to access<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak</strong></div>'
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Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry

Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March. However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year. In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1). In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years. It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court’s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts. Source: Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access   Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-à-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-à-vis production in 2013-14. As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1). As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year.   Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span. The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-à-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes. As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts.     Source: Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data. Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016). The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year. The Arthapedia website www.arthapedia.in (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country. The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when kharif sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when rabi sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering kharif as well as rabi crops take into account firmed up figures on kharif area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of kharif crops and tentative figures on area coverage of rabi crops. The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for rabi crops and better yield estimates of kharif crops are released in April-May. It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.   References Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds & Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm Cropping seasons of India- Kharif & Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please click here to access Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please click here to access Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please click here to access Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please click here to access   Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please click here to access   Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php   Farmers’ prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access   Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access   2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access   Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak