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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

MDGs: A neglected agenda for inclusiveness

The India Country Report 2015 on Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) comes at a time when the Union Budget 2015-16 allegedly cut expenditure on several social sector schemes and programmes. This year's MDG country report says that India will fail to achieve two important targets pertaining to reducing hunger and maternal mortality by 2015, among others.

Released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the report says that India is not going to achieve target 2 (under MDG 1) i.e. halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. The country will also fail in reducing by three quarters, the Maternal Mortality Ratio, between 1990 and 2015 — target  6 (under MDG 5).

On achieving the other targets under the remaining MDGs, the report provides a mixed picture. Please check the chart below to get a bird's eyeview of the progress made by India in this respect.
 
MDGs 2015

The recent MDG country report says that India has already achieved the target 1 (under MDG 1) i.e. halving the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day between 1990 and 2015. It says that the country has already reduced poverty head count ratio from 47.8 percent  in 1990 to 21.9 percent in 2011-12. Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, the poverty gap ratio reduced both in rural and urban areas.

If one believes the Rangarajan Committee report's (published in 2014) estimate of head count ratio of 29.5 percent in 2011-12 instead of the Planning Commission's poverty ratio of 21.9 percent (based on Tendulkar Committee methodology) in the same year, then it can be said that India is yet to achieve target 1 (under MDG 1). Many would argue that with the tightening of budgetary allocations under the MGNREGA and other social sector schemes in recent years, the rate of decline in poverty ratio will taper off over the years. The allocation under the MGNREGA has been marginally increased to Rs 34,699 crore in 2015-16 as compared to last year's allocation. If the Ministry of Finance is able to garner some additional resources during the year from tax buoyancy, then the Finance Minister has promised to increase allocations to MGNREGA by Rs. 5,000 crore. This point has been criticized by civil society activists because the Government is bound to make adequate allocations under MGNREGA whatever be the expenses, given that it is a demand driven scheme.

The MDG report says that the country could not halve the proportion of hunger affected people between 1990 and 2015 – target 2 (under MDG 1). Based on the National Family Health Surveys, it has been said that the proportion of underweight children below 3 years declined from 43 percent in 1998-99 to 40 percent in 2005-06. The country report expects that at this rate of decline, the proportion of underweight children below 3 years is likely to reduce to 33% by 2015, thereby exhibiting that India will fall short of the target.  

Development economists have recently argued that India's fight against hunger and malnutrition will dampen due to axing of budgetary allocations under Integrated Child Development Service (ICDS) and Mid Day Meal Scheme (MDMS). With states sharing responsibilities of many of the erstwhile Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS) (being financially supported by states' increased share in overall tax revenue now), it is still not clear whether all the states will have at hand more net resources to spend for a particular scheme during a fiscal year, given the fact that direct financial support for certain schemes from the Centre has been quashed. India's inability to conduct the 4th Round of National Family Health Survey is a barrier to assess the current state of nutrition and food security among vulnerable sections of the society including children below 3 years in all states and UTs.   

On achieving target 3 (under MDG 2) i.e. ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling, the country is moderately on track, says the MDG report. Although the net enrollment ratio (NER) in primary education (age 6-10 years) increased from 84.5 percent in 2005-06 to 88.08 percent in 2013-14, India is unlikely to meet the target of universal achievement. Youth (15-24 years) literacy rate, however, is likely to reach 93.38 percent in 2015, which is quite close to the target of 100 percent youth literacy by MDG deadline. The indicator 'ratio of enrollment of Grade V to Grade I' has also been rising in recent years.

The emphasis of the MDG report is more on quantitative targets related to education and not on quality aspects.

The country report is optimistic about India achieving target 4 (under MDG 3) i.e. eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015. It says that in primary education, the Gender Parity Index (GPI) of Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) is 1.03 in 2013-14. In secondary education also the GPI of GER is 1 in 2013-14 and in tertiary level of  education, the GPI of GER is 0.89 in 2012-13. As per Census 2011, the ratio of female youth literacy rate to male youth literacy rate is 0.91 for India, which is likely to reach 1 by 2015.

Indicators used for measuring gender equality in education under the MDG framework measures only the quantitative aspect and not the qualitative aspect of gender disparity. The Annual Status of Education Report 2014 (released in January 2015) shows that in each age group, a higher proportion of boys go to private schools as compared to girls. For example, in 2014, in the age group 7-10 years, 35.6 percent of boys were enrolled in private schools as compared to 27.7 percent of girls. This happens in India since the family elders think that boys should get better quality of education (from private schools) vis-a-vis girls because boys become the main breadwinners when they grow up.

Due to sharp progress made in recent years, the country is moderately on track to achieve target 5 (under MDG 4) i.e. reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR). Although India will narrowly miss the target of reducing U5MR to 42 deaths per live births by 2015, it is noteworthy that the country has made impressive gains in reducing U5MR in recent years, says the report. Against the target of 27 infant deaths per 1000 live births by 2015, Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is likely to reach 39 by the deadline. However, the country report hopes that India will perform well to narrow the gap between achievement and target. India will, however, fail to achieve universal immunization by 2015, cautions the report.

As mentioned earlier, the country will fail to reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio — target 6 (under MDG 5). Against the target of 109 maternal deaths per 1 lakh live births by 2015, MMR is likely to reach 140 maternal deaths by 2015. India will fail to achieve the target of 100 percent births attended by skilled personnel by 2015.  

It needs to be mentioned here that in the recent years, the Union Government has moved away from the model of tax financed health allocations/ investment to insurance based health model. India is yet to see the success of various publicly financed health insurance schemes meant for the poor and women at the state-level in reducing the burden of out-of-pocket health expenditure.

As per the MDG country report, India is on track to achieve target 7 (under MDG 6) i.e. have stopped by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/ AIDS. The report says that the prevalence of HIV among pregnant women aged 15-24 years has been declining in recent years. Condom use at high-risk sex has been rising. The proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/ AIDS has shown improvement.

It has been, however, alleged that the Centre's new resource distribution plan (following the recommendatons of the 14th Finance Commission) will affect National Health Mission and AIDS prevention programmes.

As per the MDG report, India is moderately on track to achieve target 8 (under MDG 6) i.e. have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. The report says that the Annual Parasite Incidence (API) rate of malaria has consistently come down from 2.12 per thousand in 2001 to 0.72 per thousand in 2013, but slightly increased to 0.88 in 2014. Confirmed deaths due to malaria rose from 440 in 2013 to 578 in 2014. Both Tuberculosis Prevalence per lakh population and Tuberculosis Mortality per lakh population have come down over the years.

In a letter published in the Lancet medical journal during January 2015, health expert Mahaveer Golechha from Public Health Foundation of India (based in New Delhi) has explained that it would be difficult for India to eliminate tuberculosis as a public health problem by 2050 without sustained financial support, strong political will and stringent regulation. A World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2014 found that out of the nine million incident cases of tuberculosis estimated to have occurred in India during 2013, only 5.7 million were both detected and notified to national TB programmes (NTPs) or national surveillance systems giving a case detection rate of 64 percent. The WHO report says that this leaves a gap of approximately 3.3 million people with tuberculosis who were "missed", either because they were not diagnosed or because they were diagnosed but not reported. The emerging multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) crisis is a new challenge for India.   

The MDG country report says that India is moderately on track to achieve target 9 (under MDG 7) i.e. integrate the principle of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources. During 2011-13, there has been an increase in total forest cover of the country. However, CO2 emission (in million tonnes) has increased over the recent years. Similarly, per capita energy consumption has increased in recent years.

Activists working on the ground may contradict the claim that everything is well in the area of environment. Land acquisition, soil erosion and pollution are major problems faced by the country today.

The country is on track to achieve access to safe drinking water but not on track to achieve access to basic sanitation – target 10 (under MDG 7), says the report. During 2012, 87.8 percent Indian households had access to improved source of drinking water. However, 43.4 percent households had no latrine facilities in 2012.

It has been alleged that the data on sanitation is ridden with manipulations. There is a stark difference between the number of toilets as reported by Government documents and what exists in reality.

On the target 11 (under MDG 7) i.e. by 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers, the report says that the pattern is not statistically discernible.

From the National Sample Survey 69th Round, we come to know that a total of 33,510 slums were estimated to be present in the urban areas of India. At the national level, only 24 percent of slums benefited from welfare schemes such as Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), Rajiv Awas Yojana (RAY), or any other scheme run by the Central Government or State Government or any local body. The proportion benefiting from such schemes was 32 percent among notified and 18 percent among non-notified slums.

The 2015 MDG country report finds that India is on track to achieve target 18 (under MDG 8) i.e. in cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially informations and communications. The overall teledensity has grown tremendously and is at 76 percent as on 31 July 2014. The internet subscribers per 100 population accessing internet through wireline and wireless connections has increased from 16.15 in June 2013 to 20.83 in June 2014.

It is worth noting that the country's MDG framework is based on United Nations Development Group’s (UNDG) MDG 2003 framework, and it includes all the eight goals, 12 out of the 18 targets (target 1-11 and target 18), which are relevant for India and related 35 indicators. The MDGs originated from the Millennium Declaration adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations in September 2000. Once the MDGs expire at the end of 2015, they will be replaced by Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to set the course of future international development.

Note

Head count ratio (HCR) is the proportion of a population that exists, or lives, below the 'poverty line'.

Poverty gap is the mean shortfall of the total population from the poverty line (counting the nonpoor as having zero shortfall), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. This measure reflects the depth of poverty as well as its incidence.

Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) is defined as enrolment of the official age-group for a given level of education expressed as a percentage of the corresponding population.

Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) is the total enrollment within a country in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population in the official age group corresponding to this level of education.

Under-5 Mortality Rate is the number of children who die by the age of five, per thousand live births per year.

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of deaths of infants under one year old per 1,000 live births.

Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) is the number of maternal deaths during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same time-period.

Annual Parasite Incidence (API) = (Confirmed cases during 1 year) divided by (population under surveillance) multiplied by 1000

Telephone density or teledensity is the number of telephone connections for every hundred individuals living within an area.

References:

MDG India Country Report 2015, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 

Of bold strokes and fine prints: An analysis of Union Budget 2015-16, Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability (CBGA), March 2015
 
Key Indicators of Urban Slums in India, NSS 69th Round, July 2012 to December 2012 

Doubts over Maharashtra's Nutritional Progress?

India's MDG Score Card: Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Rising burden of out-of-pocket health expenditure

Health expense is a major burden on rural citizenry
 
Missing toilets: Is India’s sanitation drive ‘In Deep Shit’?

MDG India Country Report 2014, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation 

Rangarajan Committee Report on Measurement of Poverty 2014

Press Note on Poverty Estimates, 2011-12, Planning Commission, July, 2013

Nehruvian budget in the corporate age -Jean Drèze, The Hindu, 5 March, 2015

Centre's new fund distribution plan dents flagship health,
AIDS programmes, Reuters, The Times of India, 3 March, 2015

Can India be tuberculosis-free by 2050?, The Lancet, Volume 385, No. 9965, p328–329, 24 January, 2015

Millennium Development Goals: A Mixed Report Card for India -Neeta Lal, IPS News, 14 February, 2015

24% of global missed TB cases in India: WHO -Kounteya Sinha, The Times of India, 24 October, 2014
 
Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi