Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
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		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
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	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. </div><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> </p><p align="justify">But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;</p><p align="justify">According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.</p><p align="justify">The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. </p><p align="justify">Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  </p><p align="justify">According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.</p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong><em>References:</em></strong></p><p align="justify">FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  </p><p align="justify">Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   </p><p align="justify">RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br /><a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> </p><p align="justify"><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> </p><p align="justify">What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br /><br />Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> </p><p align="justify">The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br /><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a></p><p align="justify">Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a> </p><p align="justify">UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html  </a></p><p align="justify">Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html </a></p><p align="justify">It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br /><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a></p><p align="justify">Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a> </p><p align="justify">A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html </a></p><p align="justify">Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html      </a></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf" title="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong></p>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67f545136605d-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67f545136605d-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f545136605d-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;
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	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
	&#039;metaKeywords&#039; =&gt; &#039;Food Security,vegetables,food prices,Inflation&#039;,
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 22164,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
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$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. </div><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> </p><p align="justify">But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;</p><p align="justify">According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.</p><p align="justify">The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. </p><p align="justify">Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  </p><p align="justify">According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.</p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong><em>References:</em></strong></p><p align="justify">FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  </p><p align="justify">Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   </p><p align="justify">RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br /><a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> </p><p align="justify"><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> </p><p align="justify">What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br /><br />Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> </p><p align="justify">The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br /><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a></p><p align="justify">Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a> </p><p align="justify">UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html  </a></p><p align="justify">Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html </a></p><p align="justify">It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br /><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a></p><p align="justify">Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a> </p><p align="justify">A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html </a></p><p align="justify">Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html      </a></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf" title="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong></p>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67f545136605d-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67f545136605d-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67f545136605d-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f545136605d-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
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		&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 22164,
		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
		&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
		&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
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	&#039;metaTitle&#039; =&gt; &#039;NEWS ALERTS | GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;id&#039; =&gt; (int) 22164,
	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;,
	&#039;subheading&#039; =&gt; &#039;&#039;,
	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. 
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;img src=&quot;tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; 
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      &lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
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$metaTitle = &#039;NEWS ALERTS | GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES&#039;
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp;amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 1)&lt;/strong&gt;. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 1&quot; width=&quot;769&quot; height=&quot;383&quot; /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent &lt;strong&gt;(see table 2)&lt;/strong&gt;, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG&quot; alt=&quot;Table 2&quot; width=&quot;766&quot; height=&quot;326&quot; /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI&#039;s Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&amp;quot;&lt;/em&gt;. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that &lt;em&gt;&amp;quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices &lt;/em&gt;(of diesel and electricity) &lt;em&gt;could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&amp;quot;. &lt;/em&gt;The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices &lt;em&gt;(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)&lt;/em&gt; have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;References:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;FAO World Food Situation, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot; title=&quot;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&quot;&gt;http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/&lt;/a&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, &lt;a href=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot; title=&quot;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&quot;&gt;http://eaindustry.nic.in/&lt;/a&gt;   &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&quot;&gt;http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot; title=&quot;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&quot;&gt;http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot; title=&quot;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&quot;&gt;http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what&lt;br /&gt;-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f&lt;br /&gt;all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf&quot;&gt;http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri&lt;br /&gt;ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h&lt;br /&gt;tml&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-&lt;br /&gt;highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227&lt;br /&gt;2.html  &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p&lt;br /&gt;rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220&lt;br /&gt;92.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-&lt;br /&gt;the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Rains, incomes &amp;amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes&lt;br /&gt;-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs&lt;br /&gt;hu-watts-21909.html&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi&lt;br /&gt;ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing&lt;br /&gt;-strange-21803.html &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, &lt;a href=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot; title=&quot;https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html&quot;&gt;http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri&lt;br /&gt;ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217&lt;br /&gt;04.html      &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, &lt;a href=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot; title=&quot;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&quot;&gt;http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. </div><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> </p><p align="justify">But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;</p><p align="justify">According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.</p><p align="justify">The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. </p><p align="justify">Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  </p><p align="justify">According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.</p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong><em>References:</em></strong></p><p align="justify">FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  </p><p align="justify">Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   </p><p align="justify">RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br /><a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> </p><p align="justify"><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> </p><p align="justify">What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br /><br />Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> </p><p align="justify">The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br /><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a></p><p align="justify">Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a> </p><p align="justify">UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html  </a></p><p align="justify">Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html </a></p><p align="justify">It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br /><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a></p><p align="justify">Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a> </p><p align="justify">A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html </a></p><p align="justify">Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html      </a></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf" title="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong></p>               </font>
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		'title' => 'GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES',
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		'description' => '<div align="justify">
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. 
</div>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
</p>
<p align="justify">
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
</p>
<p align="justify">
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em>
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<strong><em>References:</em></strong>
</p>
<p align="justify">
FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  
</p>
<p align="justify">
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   
</p>
<p align="justify">
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br />
<a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
<a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br />
<br />
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br />
<a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br />
<a href="../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong>
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...',
	'disp' => '<div align="justify">The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. </div><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> </p><p align="justify">But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;</p><p align="justify">According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.</p><p align="justify">The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. </p><p align="justify">Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  </p><p align="justify">According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.</p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong><em>References:</em></strong></p><p align="justify">FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  </p><p align="justify">Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   </p><p align="justify">RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br /><a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> </p><p align="justify"><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> </p><p align="justify">What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br /><br />Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> </p><p align="justify">The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br /><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a></p><p align="justify">Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a> </p><p align="justify">UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html  </a></p><p align="justify">Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html </a></p><p align="justify">It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br /><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a></p><p align="justify">Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a> </p><p align="justify">A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html </a></p><p align="justify">Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html      </a></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf" title="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong></p>',
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	'title' => 'GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES',
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	'description' => '<div align="justify">
The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. 
</div>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<br />
<img src="tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. 
</p>
<p align="justify">
Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  
</p>
<p align="justify">
According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em>
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<strong><em>References:</em></strong>
</p>
<p align="justify">
FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  
</p>
<p align="justify">
Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   
</p>
<p align="justify">
RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br />
<a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
<a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br />
<br />
Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br />
<a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html  </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br />
<a href="../latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html</a> 
</p>
<p align="justify">
A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="../latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html      </a>
</p>
<p align="justify">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p align="justify">
<strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong>
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$metaTitle = 'NEWS ALERTS | GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES'
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The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend...'
$disp = '<div align="justify">The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy &amp; palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent <strong>(see table 1)</strong>. </div><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%201_1.JPG" alt="Table 1" width="769" height="383" /> </p><p align="justify">But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent <strong>(see table 2)</strong>, much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><br /><img src="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Table%202_4.JPG" alt="Table 2" width="766" height="326" />&nbsp;</p><p align="justify">According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, <em>&quot;recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern&quot;</em>. Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies.</p><p align="justify">The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that <em>&quot;given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices </em>(of diesel and electricity) <em>could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings&quot;. </em>The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013.  On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. </p><p align="justify">Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices <em>(caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government)</em> have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition.  </p><p align="justify">According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.</p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><em>(A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).</em></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong><em>References:</em></strong></p><p align="justify">FAO World Food Situation, <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" title="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</a>  </p><p align="justify">Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, <a href="http://eaindustry.nic.in/" title="http://eaindustry.nic.in/">http://eaindustry.nic.in/</a>   </p><p align="justify">RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August)<br /><a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf" title="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf">http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf</a> </p><p align="justify"><a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx" title="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx">http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx</a> </p><p align="justify">What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece">http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what<br />-defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece</a> <br /><br />Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/food-prices-fall-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f<br />all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html</a> </p><p align="justify">The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013<br /><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf">http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf </a></p><p align="justify">Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/wholesale-price-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri<br />ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h<br />tml</a> </p><p align="justify">UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-22272.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss-<br />highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227<br />2.html  </a></p><p align="justify">Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/will-rising-prices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-22092.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p<br />rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220<br />92.html </a></p><p align="justify">It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013,<br /><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is-<br />the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html </a></p><p align="justify">Rains, incomes &amp; food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangshu-watts-21909.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes<br />-food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs<br />hu-watts-21909.html</a> </p><p align="justify">A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/a-food-security-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing-strange-21803.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi<br />ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing<br />-strange-21803.html </a></p><p align="justify">Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, <a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/vegetable-prices-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-21704.html">http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri<br />ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217<br />04.html      </a></p><p align="justify">&nbsp;</p><p align="justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf" title="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf">http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf</a> </strong></p>'
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GET READY FOR HIGHER FOOD PRICES

The declining trend in food price inflation globally may not hold true for inflationary trends faced domestically due to a weakening Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recently released FAO Food Price Index (nominal) has shown a declining trend in July for the third consecutive month owing to lower international prices for grains, soy & palm oil, meat, dairy and sugar. (See links below) Based on FAO Food Price Index, the global rate of inflation in food in July 2013 (over July 2012) touched a negative 3.3 percent (see table 1).   But price situation at home is not rosy. Strictly speaking, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cannot be compared to the FAO Food Price Index. If the restriction is dropped, the rate of inflation in July 2013 (over July last year) in terms of WPI of food articles is found to be 11.9 percent (see table 2), much higher than what is computed from the FAO Food Price Index. The month-on-month annual inflation rate in vegetable and cereal prices stood at 46.6 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, during July.    According to the RBI's Monthly Bulletin of August 2013, "recent currency depreciation and upward pressure on fuel prices due to geo-political uncertainties pose upside risks to inflation. Near double-digit consumer price inflation also remains a major concern". Brent crude oil spot price that was expected to average US$ 102 per barrel over the second half of 2013 rose to over US$ 108 in July 2013 due to the fear that political crisis in Egypt might spread to the rest of West Asia, thus, disrupting world crude supplies. The RBI Monthly Bulletin has further cautioned that "given the increase in global crude oil prices and rupee depreciation in recent weeks, further increases in administered prices (of diesel and electricity) could become inevitable which could lead to higher inflation readings". The policy of reducing the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies-OMCs has proved to be quite expensive for the end consumers. The decision of Coal India to revise upwards the prices of coal from May 28, 2013 has compelled several State Electricity Boards (SEBs) to revise their prices upwards in May 2013. On top of it, many economists fear that the newly enacted Food Security legislation may put extra burden on the exchequer and cause inflation in the coming days. Due to depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, the prices of imports (especially crude petroleum) have gone up, thereby, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Food prices too have skyrocketed since rising diesel prices (caused by revisions in administered prices by the Government) have affected transportation cost. Some economists have blamed the flood situation due to excessive rainfall for inflationary tendency that cut off many places from the rest of the country and damaged crops. Slow progress in infrastructure development (particularly highways) and their maintenance have taken a toll on our economy, blamed the Opposition. According to the RBI Monthly Bulletin (August), average inflation during first Quarter (Q1) of 2013-14 at 4.8 per cent remained significantly lower than the average inflation of 7.5 percent during Q1 of 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent during the year 2012-13. Rural wages, which were growing at over 20 per cent (y-o-y) during 2010-12, grew at a slower pace during 2012-13, but still remain in the high double digits. A significant pick-up in rural inflation in recent months contributed to a faster decline in real wage growth.   (A note of caution about measuring inflation based on the WPI is that it may not indicate the current price scenario. WPI data becomes public after a lag of almost 2 months).   References: FAO World Food Situation, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, http://eaindustry.nic.in/ RBI Monthly Bulletin 2013 (August) http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Bulletin/PDFs/06BUM080813S.pdf http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx What defines headline inflation?-CP Chandrasekhar, The Hindu, 28 July, 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/what -defines-headline-inflation/article4963593.ece Food prices fall for third consecutive month-UN agency, The United Nations, 8 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-prices-f all-for-third-consecutive-monthun-agency-22266.html The Fall of the Rupee-Prabhat Patnaik, 5 July, 2013 http://www.networkideas.org/news/jul2013/Fall_Rupee.pdf Wholesale price inflation likely edged up to 5 per cent in July, Reuters, The Economic Times, 12 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/wholesale-pri ce-inflation-likely-edged-up-to-5-per-cent-in-july-22294.h tml UPA may miss highway building target in poll year -Dipak Kumar Dash, The Times of India, 10 August, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/upa-may-miss- highway-building-target-in-poll-year-dipak-kumar-dash-2227 2.html Will rising prices hit poll result? UPA govt panics -Rajeev Deshpande, The Times of India, 25 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/will-rising-p rices-hit-poll-result-upa-govt-panics-rajeev-deshpande-220 92.html It really is the economy, stupid-Rukmini S, The Hindu, 22 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/it-really-is- the-economy-stupid-rukmini-s-22048.html Rains, incomes & food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India -Himangshu Watts, The Economic Times, 12 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/rains-incomes -food-good-monsoon-this-year-is-bad-news-for-india-himangs hu-watts-21909.html A food security ordinance that will stimulate food inflation is passing strange, The Times of India, 5 July, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/a-food-securi ty-ordinance-that-will-stimulate-food-inflation-is-passing -strange-21803.html Vegetable prices rise 50 per cent owing to bad weather -Madhvi Sally, The Economic Times, 26 June, 2013, http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/vegetable-pri ces-rise-50-per-cent-owing-to-bad-weather-madhvi-sally-217 04.html   Image Courtesy: Press Information Bureau, http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2010/jul/d2010071501.pdf