Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
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        चर्चा में.... | खेती किसानी की हालत : आखिर कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों का सच क्या है ?    </title>
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दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?


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                                                    <a  target="_blank" href="https://im4change.in/hindi/hunger/poverty-and-inequality.html"
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                                                    <a  target="_blank" href="https://im4change.in/hindi/environment/खेती-पर-असर-54.html"
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                                                    <a  target="_blank" href="https://im4change.in/hindi/law-and-justice/मानवाधिकार-56.html"
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		 Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Jan 25, 2018</span>
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दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?
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<p style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
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<p style="text-align: justify">
अगर ऊपर लिखी बात आपको किसी पहेली की तरह लग रही हो तो इस तथ्य पर गौर कीजिए-केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय के नये आंकड़े में अनुमान लगाया गया है कि कृषि-क्षेत्र में सकल मूल्य वर्धन(जीवीए) पिछले साल के मुकाबले कम होगा. लेकिन, कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय का आकलन है कि खेती-किसानी में जीवीए में गिरावट नहीं आयेगी.(जीवीए कहते हैं जीडीपी और निवल अप्रत्यक्ष करों के आपसी अंतर को)
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लेकिन सरकार के दो महकमों को एक ही क्षेत्र की एक-दूसरे से अलग तस्वीर क्योंकर दिख रही है. आखिर, गणना की उनकी पद्धति में क्या अन्तर है जो दोनों महकमे नतीजे एक-दूसरे से एकदम उलट सुना रहे हैं? इस सवाल के जवाब के लिए पहले तथ्यों पर गौर करें--
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<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने हाल में वित्त वर्ष 2017-18 के लिए सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) और सकल मूल्य वर्धन (जीवीए) के अग्रिम&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">अनुमान</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;जारी किए हैं. इस अनुमान के मुताबिक कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन में जीवीए की वृद्धि दर 2016-17 के 4.9 से घटकर  2017-18 में 2.1 प्रतिशत होने के आसार हैं.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने साल 2017-18 की मुख्य खरीफ फसलों के उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान तथा रबी की बुवाई के लक्ष्य को आधार बनाकर अपना आकलन पेश किया है- सांख्यिकी एवं कार्यक्रम क्रियान्वयन मंत्रालय की&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;से यह बात स्पष्ट हो जाती है.</span>
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</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति में स्पष्ट किया गया है कि सीएसओ ने फसलों से संबंधित आकलन के लिए कृषि-मंत्रालय के एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन विभाग से हासिल सूचनाओं का इस्तेमाल किया. विभाग की सूचनाओं से खरीफ के मौसम के दौरान उत्पादन के कम रहने के संकेत मिलते हैं. साल 2016-17 में खरीफ फसलों का उत्पादन 138-52 मिलियन टन रहा था जबकि इस कृषि-वर्ष(2017-18) में खरीफ के मौसम में फसलों का उत्पादन घटकर 134.67 मिलियन टन हो सकता है.</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति से यह भी जाहिर है कि सीएसओ ने पशुधन से संबंधित उत्पादन के आकलन के लिए दूध, अंडा, मांस तथा ऊन से संबंधित कृषि-विभाग के पशपालन महकमे के आंकड़ों का इस्तेमाल किया.</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">गौरतलब है कि 'कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन ' नाम से सरकारी दस्तावेजों में दर्ज की जाने वाली आर्थिक गतिविधि में फसल, पशुधन, वानिकी, मत्स्य पालन तथा जलीय कृषि(एक्वाकल्चर) को शामिल किया जाता है और जीवीए में फसलों की हिस्सेदारी 60 प्रतिशत, पशुधन की 20 प्रतिशत, वानिकी की 8.5 फीसद तथा मछली पालन और एक्वाकल्चर 5.5 प्रतिशत की है.</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">बताते चलें कि खाद्यान्न के उत्पादन से संबंधित प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान(2017-18) 22 सितंबर 2017 को जारी हुए थे जबकि बागवानी से संबंधित उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान 2 जनवरी 2018 को जारी हुए.और, इसी तथ्य के आधार पर कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ की आकलन से एकदम उलट तस्वीर पेश की है.</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">मंत्रालय के 7 जनवरी 2018 की&nbsp;</span><a href="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051" title="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;में कहा है कि सीएसओ के अग्रिम अनुमान डीईएस(डायरेक्टोरेट ऑफ इकॉनॉमिक्स एंड स्टैटिक्स) की सूचनाओं पर आधारित हैं. डीईएस ने &quot;खाद्यान्न, तिलहन और वाणिज्यिक फसलों के संबंध में खरीफ 2017-18 के दौरान बुवाई क्षेत्र  और उत्पादन से संबंधित आंकड़ों को साझा किया जो अगस्त, 2017 तक इस बारे में किये गए संकलन पर आधारित है. साथ में यह भी कहा गया है कि डीईएस के ये अनुमान मुख्&zwj;यत: राज्य सरकारों द्वारा व्&zwj;यक्&zwj;त किए गए अनुमानों पर आधारित हैं.&quot;</span>
</p>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">तो क्या डीईएस ने सीएसओ से जिन सूचनाओं का साझा किया वे विश्वसनीय नहीं है ? कृषि एवं किसान मंत्रालय की प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति कुछ ऐसा ही संकेत करती है.</span>
</p>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति के मुताबिक मानसून के शुरू होने में देरी की वजह से अगस्त 2017 तक फसलों की रोपाई-बुवाई का जो क्षेत्र दर्ज किया गया वह कम था लेकिन दिसंबर 2017 तक यह स्थिति बदली और फसलों का कवरेज एरिया बढ़ गया.</span>
</p>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">कृषि-मंत्रालय का तर्क है कि &quot;देश के कुछ हिस्सों में मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी के कारण अगस्त 2017 तक खरीफ में विभिन्न फसलों के क्षेत्र में कवरेज पिछले वर्ष से कम था. हालांकि, इसके बाद अच्छी बारिश से मंत्रालय को खरीफ के लक्ष्य के अनुसार क्षेत्र की कवरेज बढ़ाने में मदद मिली. मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी और पिछले वर्ष की तुलना में अपेक्षाकृत कम बारिश के बावजूद खरीफ के तहत एरिया कवरेज अंततः 106.55  मिलियन हेक्टेयर तक पहुंच गया है जबकि पांच वर्षों का औसत 105.86 मिलियन हेक्टेयर है.&quot;</span>
</p>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">मॉनसून की बाद के वक्त में सुधरी हुई स्थिति और फसलों के बढ़े हुए कवरेज एरिया के आधार पर कृषि मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ के जीवीए संबंधी अनुमान को नकार तो दिया है लेकिन एक सवाल बचा रह जाता है : अगर डीईएस यानि अर्थशास्त्र एवं सांख्यिकी निदेशालय(यह डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन के अंतर्गत है जो कृषि मंत्रालय का हिस्सा है) को परंपरा के हिसाब से 2019 की फरवरी में प्रमुख फसलों के उत्पादन का अंतिम अनुमान प्रकाशित करना ही है तो फिर कृषि-मंत्रालय को ऐसी क्या जरुरत आन पड़ी जो उसने कृषि-क्षेत्र के जीवीए की अपेक्षित बढ़वार के बारे में अपनी तरफ से बजट पेश होने के तुरंत पहले स्पष्टीकरण जारी करना जरुरी समझा ?&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
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इस कथा के विस्तार के लिए देखं निम्नलिखित लिंक्स--
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<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Press
release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of
Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January,
2018,&nbsp;<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
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<span>Press
Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5
January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a>&nbsp;to access</span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Press
release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and
production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press
Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a>&nbsp;<br />
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
&nbsp;
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<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and
2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
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<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22
September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
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<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>2017
Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>2016
Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Poor
south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert
from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Cropping seasons of India-&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Kharif</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Rabi</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">, Arthapedia, please&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to read
more&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan
Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN
Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">to access&nbsp;</span>
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<span>Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">खेती किसानी की हालत : आखिर कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों का सच क्या है ?</h1>
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दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?
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&nbsp;
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अगर ऊपर लिखी बात आपको किसी पहेली की तरह लग रही हो तो इस तथ्य पर गौर कीजिए-केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय के नये आंकड़े में अनुमान लगाया गया है कि कृषि-क्षेत्र में सकल मूल्य वर्धन(जीवीए) पिछले साल के मुकाबले कम होगा. लेकिन, कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय का आकलन है कि खेती-किसानी में जीवीए में गिरावट नहीं आयेगी.(जीवीए कहते हैं जीडीपी और निवल अप्रत्यक्ष करों के आपसी अंतर को)
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लेकिन सरकार के दो महकमों को एक ही क्षेत्र की एक-दूसरे से अलग तस्वीर क्योंकर दिख रही है. आखिर, गणना की उनकी पद्धति में क्या अन्तर है जो दोनों महकमे नतीजे एक-दूसरे से एकदम उलट सुना रहे हैं? इस सवाल के जवाब के लिए पहले तथ्यों पर गौर करें--
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<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने हाल में वित्त वर्ष 2017-18 के लिए सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) और सकल मूल्य वर्धन (जीवीए) के अग्रिम&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">अनुमान</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;जारी किए हैं. इस अनुमान के मुताबिक कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन में जीवीए की वृद्धि दर 2016-17 के 4.9 से घटकर  2017-18 में 2.1 प्रतिशत होने के आसार हैं.</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने साल 2017-18 की मुख्य खरीफ फसलों के उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान तथा रबी की बुवाई के लक्ष्य को आधार बनाकर अपना आकलन पेश किया है- सांख्यिकी एवं कार्यक्रम क्रियान्वयन मंत्रालय की&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;से यह बात स्पष्ट हो जाती है.</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति में स्पष्ट किया गया है कि सीएसओ ने फसलों से संबंधित आकलन के लिए कृषि-मंत्रालय के एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन विभाग से हासिल सूचनाओं का इस्तेमाल किया. विभाग की सूचनाओं से खरीफ के मौसम के दौरान उत्पादन के कम रहने के संकेत मिलते हैं. साल 2016-17 में खरीफ फसलों का उत्पादन 138-52 मिलियन टन रहा था जबकि इस कृषि-वर्ष(2017-18) में खरीफ के मौसम में फसलों का उत्पादन घटकर 134.67 मिलियन टन हो सकता है.</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति से यह भी जाहिर है कि सीएसओ ने पशुधन से संबंधित उत्पादन के आकलन के लिए दूध, अंडा, मांस तथा ऊन से संबंधित कृषि-विभाग के पशपालन महकमे के आंकड़ों का इस्तेमाल किया.</span>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">गौरतलब है कि 'कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन ' नाम से सरकारी दस्तावेजों में दर्ज की जाने वाली आर्थिक गतिविधि में फसल, पशुधन, वानिकी, मत्स्य पालन तथा जलीय कृषि(एक्वाकल्चर) को शामिल किया जाता है और जीवीए में फसलों की हिस्सेदारी 60 प्रतिशत, पशुधन की 20 प्रतिशत, वानिकी की 8.5 फीसद तथा मछली पालन और एक्वाकल्चर 5.5 प्रतिशत की है.</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">बताते चलें कि खाद्यान्न के उत्पादन से संबंधित प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान(2017-18) 22 सितंबर 2017 को जारी हुए थे जबकि बागवानी से संबंधित उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान 2 जनवरी 2018 को जारी हुए.और, इसी तथ्य के आधार पर कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ की आकलन से एकदम उलट तस्वीर पेश की है.</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">मंत्रालय के 7 जनवरी 2018 की&nbsp;</span><a href="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051" title="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;में कहा है कि सीएसओ के अग्रिम अनुमान डीईएस(डायरेक्टोरेट ऑफ इकॉनॉमिक्स एंड स्टैटिक्स) की सूचनाओं पर आधारित हैं. डीईएस ने &quot;खाद्यान्न, तिलहन और वाणिज्यिक फसलों के संबंध में खरीफ 2017-18 के दौरान बुवाई क्षेत्र  और उत्पादन से संबंधित आंकड़ों को साझा किया जो अगस्त, 2017 तक इस बारे में किये गए संकलन पर आधारित है. साथ में यह भी कहा गया है कि डीईएस के ये अनुमान मुख्&zwj;यत: राज्य सरकारों द्वारा व्&zwj;यक्&zwj;त किए गए अनुमानों पर आधारित हैं.&quot;</span>
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&nbsp;
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">तो क्या डीईएस ने सीएसओ से जिन सूचनाओं का साझा किया वे विश्वसनीय नहीं है ? कृषि एवं किसान मंत्रालय की प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति कुछ ऐसा ही संकेत करती है.</span>
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति के मुताबिक मानसून के शुरू होने में देरी की वजह से अगस्त 2017 तक फसलों की रोपाई-बुवाई का जो क्षेत्र दर्ज किया गया वह कम था लेकिन दिसंबर 2017 तक यह स्थिति बदली और फसलों का कवरेज एरिया बढ़ गया.</span>
</p>
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&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">कृषि-मंत्रालय का तर्क है कि &quot;देश के कुछ हिस्सों में मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी के कारण अगस्त 2017 तक खरीफ में विभिन्न फसलों के क्षेत्र में कवरेज पिछले वर्ष से कम था. हालांकि, इसके बाद अच्छी बारिश से मंत्रालय को खरीफ के लक्ष्य के अनुसार क्षेत्र की कवरेज बढ़ाने में मदद मिली. मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी और पिछले वर्ष की तुलना में अपेक्षाकृत कम बारिश के बावजूद खरीफ के तहत एरिया कवरेज अंततः 106.55  मिलियन हेक्टेयर तक पहुंच गया है जबकि पांच वर्षों का औसत 105.86 मिलियन हेक्टेयर है.&quot;</span>
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">मॉनसून की बाद के वक्त में सुधरी हुई स्थिति और फसलों के बढ़े हुए कवरेज एरिया के आधार पर कृषि मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ के जीवीए संबंधी अनुमान को नकार तो दिया है लेकिन एक सवाल बचा रह जाता है : अगर डीईएस यानि अर्थशास्त्र एवं सांख्यिकी निदेशालय(यह डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन के अंतर्गत है जो कृषि मंत्रालय का हिस्सा है) को परंपरा के हिसाब से 2019 की फरवरी में प्रमुख फसलों के उत्पादन का अंतिम अनुमान प्रकाशित करना ही है तो फिर कृषि-मंत्रालय को ऐसी क्या जरुरत आन पड़ी जो उसने कृषि-क्षेत्र के जीवीए की अपेक्षित बढ़वार के बारे में अपनी तरफ से बजट पेश होने के तुरंत पहले स्पष्टीकरण जारी करना जरुरी समझा ?&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
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<div style="text-align: justify">
इस कथा के विस्तार के लिए देखं निम्नलिखित लिंक्स--
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
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<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Press
release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of
Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January,
2018,&nbsp;<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Press
Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5
January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a>&nbsp;to access</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Press
release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and
production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press
Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a>&nbsp;<br />
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and
2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22
September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>2017
Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
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<span>2016
Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Poor
south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert
from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Cropping seasons of India-&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Kharif</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Rabi</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">, Arthapedia, please&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to read
more&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan
Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN
Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
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<span>Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business
Line, 7 January, 2018, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a>&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
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    <meta property="og:title" content="चर्चा में.... | खेती किसानी की हालत : आखिर कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों का सच क्या है ?" />
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दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?


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अगर ऊपर लिखी बात आपको किसी पहेली की तरह लग रही हो..." />
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दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?
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अगर ऊपर लिखी बात आपको किसी पहेली की तरह लग रही हो तो इस तथ्य पर गौर कीजिए-केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय के नये आंकड़े में अनुमान लगाया गया है कि कृषि-क्षेत्र में सकल मूल्य वर्धन(जीवीए) पिछले साल के मुकाबले कम होगा. लेकिन, कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय का आकलन है कि खेती-किसानी में जीवीए में गिरावट नहीं आयेगी.(जीवीए कहते हैं जीडीपी और निवल अप्रत्यक्ष करों के आपसी अंतर को)
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लेकिन सरकार के दो महकमों को एक ही क्षेत्र की एक-दूसरे से अलग तस्वीर क्योंकर दिख रही है. आखिर, गणना की उनकी पद्धति में क्या अन्तर है जो दोनों महकमे नतीजे एक-दूसरे से एकदम उलट सुना रहे हैं? इस सवाल के जवाब के लिए पहले तथ्यों पर गौर करें--
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<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने हाल में वित्त वर्ष 2017-18 के लिए सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) और सकल मूल्य वर्धन (जीवीए) के अग्रिम&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">अनुमान</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;जारी किए हैं. इस अनुमान के मुताबिक कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन में जीवीए की वृद्धि दर 2016-17 के 4.9 से घटकर  2017-18 में 2.1 प्रतिशत होने के आसार हैं.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने साल 2017-18 की मुख्य खरीफ फसलों के उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान तथा रबी की बुवाई के लक्ष्य को आधार बनाकर अपना आकलन पेश किया है- सांख्यिकी एवं कार्यक्रम क्रियान्वयन मंत्रालय की&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf">प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;से यह बात स्पष्ट हो जाती है.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति में स्पष्ट किया गया है कि सीएसओ ने फसलों से संबंधित आकलन के लिए कृषि-मंत्रालय के एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन विभाग से हासिल सूचनाओं का इस्तेमाल किया. विभाग की सूचनाओं से खरीफ के मौसम के दौरान उत्पादन के कम रहने के संकेत मिलते हैं. साल 2016-17 में खरीफ फसलों का उत्पादन 138-52 मिलियन टन रहा था जबकि इस कृषि-वर्ष(2017-18) में खरीफ के मौसम में फसलों का उत्पादन घटकर 134.67 मिलियन टन हो सकता है.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति से यह भी जाहिर है कि सीएसओ ने पशुधन से संबंधित उत्पादन के आकलन के लिए दूध, अंडा, मांस तथा ऊन से संबंधित कृषि-विभाग के पशपालन महकमे के आंकड़ों का इस्तेमाल किया.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">गौरतलब है कि 'कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन ' नाम से सरकारी दस्तावेजों में दर्ज की जाने वाली आर्थिक गतिविधि में फसल, पशुधन, वानिकी, मत्स्य पालन तथा जलीय कृषि(एक्वाकल्चर) को शामिल किया जाता है और जीवीए में फसलों की हिस्सेदारी 60 प्रतिशत, पशुधन की 20 प्रतिशत, वानिकी की 8.5 फीसद तथा मछली पालन और एक्वाकल्चर 5.5 प्रतिशत की है.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">बताते चलें कि खाद्यान्न के उत्पादन से संबंधित प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान(2017-18) 22 सितंबर 2017 को जारी हुए थे जबकि बागवानी से संबंधित उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान 2 जनवरी 2018 को जारी हुए.और, इसी तथ्य के आधार पर कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ की आकलन से एकदम उलट तस्वीर पेश की है.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">मंत्रालय के 7 जनवरी 2018 की&nbsp;</span><a href="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051" title="http://pibarchive.nic.in/newsite/hindirelease.aspx?relid=70051">प्रेस विज्ञप्ति</a><span style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;में कहा है कि सीएसओ के अग्रिम अनुमान डीईएस(डायरेक्टोरेट ऑफ इकॉनॉमिक्स एंड स्टैटिक्स) की सूचनाओं पर आधारित हैं. डीईएस ने &quot;खाद्यान्न, तिलहन और वाणिज्यिक फसलों के संबंध में खरीफ 2017-18 के दौरान बुवाई क्षेत्र  और उत्पादन से संबंधित आंकड़ों को साझा किया जो अगस्त, 2017 तक इस बारे में किये गए संकलन पर आधारित है. साथ में यह भी कहा गया है कि डीईएस के ये अनुमान मुख्&zwj;यत: राज्य सरकारों द्वारा व्&zwj;यक्&zwj;त किए गए अनुमानों पर आधारित हैं.&quot;</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">तो क्या डीईएस ने सीएसओ से जिन सूचनाओं का साझा किया वे विश्वसनीय नहीं है ? कृषि एवं किसान मंत्रालय की प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति कुछ ऐसा ही संकेत करती है.</span>
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<span style="text-align: justify">विज्ञप्ति के मुताबिक मानसून के शुरू होने में देरी की वजह से अगस्त 2017 तक फसलों की रोपाई-बुवाई का जो क्षेत्र दर्ज किया गया वह कम था लेकिन दिसंबर 2017 तक यह स्थिति बदली और फसलों का कवरेज एरिया बढ़ गया.</span>
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<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">कृषि-मंत्रालय का तर्क है कि &quot;देश के कुछ हिस्सों में मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी के कारण अगस्त 2017 तक खरीफ में विभिन्न फसलों के क्षेत्र में कवरेज पिछले वर्ष से कम था. हालांकि, इसके बाद अच्छी बारिश से मंत्रालय को खरीफ के लक्ष्य के अनुसार क्षेत्र की कवरेज बढ़ाने में मदद मिली. मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी और पिछले वर्ष की तुलना में अपेक्षाकृत कम बारिश के बावजूद खरीफ के तहत एरिया कवरेज अंततः 106.55  मिलियन हेक्टेयर तक पहुंच गया है जबकि पांच वर्षों का औसत 105.86 मिलियन हेक्टेयर है.&quot;</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p>
<span style="text-align: justify">मॉनसून की बाद के वक्त में सुधरी हुई स्थिति और फसलों के बढ़े हुए कवरेज एरिया के आधार पर कृषि मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ के जीवीए संबंधी अनुमान को नकार तो दिया है लेकिन एक सवाल बचा रह जाता है : अगर डीईएस यानि अर्थशास्त्र एवं सांख्यिकी निदेशालय(यह डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन के अंतर्गत है जो कृषि मंत्रालय का हिस्सा है) को परंपरा के हिसाब से 2019 की फरवरी में प्रमुख फसलों के उत्पादन का अंतिम अनुमान प्रकाशित करना ही है तो फिर कृषि-मंत्रालय को ऐसी क्या जरुरत आन पड़ी जो उसने कृषि-क्षेत्र के जीवीए की अपेक्षित बढ़वार के बारे में अपनी तरफ से बजट पेश होने के तुरंत पहले स्पष्टीकरण जारी करना जरुरी समझा ?&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
इस कथा के विस्तार के लिए देखं निम्नलिखित लिंक्स--
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Press
release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of
Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January,
2018,&nbsp;<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Press
Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5
January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Press%20note%20on%20First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20National%20Income%202017-18.pdf" title="Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18">click here</a>&nbsp;to access</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Press
release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and
production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press
Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare,</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158" title="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158">http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158</a>&nbsp;<br />
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
&nbsp;
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and
2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/Horticulture%20production%202017-18.pdf" title="Horticulture Production 2017-18">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22
September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf" title="http://www.im4change.orghttps://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce//uploaded/First%20Advance%20Estimates%20of%20Production%20of%20Foodgrains%20for%202017-18.pdf">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>2017
Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2017%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20End%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf" title="2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>2016
Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report" title="https://im4change.in/siteadmin/tinymce/uploaded/2016%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20end%20of%20season%20report.pdf" title="2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report">click here</a>&nbsp;to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Poor
south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert
from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="https://im4change.in/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/news-alerts/poor-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-sours-hope-for-good-foodgrain-output-4683156.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Cropping seasons of India-&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Kharif</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;</span><em style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt; outline: none"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0in">Rabi</span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">, Arthapedia, please&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi" title="http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php%3Ftitle%3DCropping_seasons_of_India-_Kharif_%2526_Rabi">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to read
more&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan
Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/agriculture-ministry-expects-upward-revision-of-farm-growth-rates-sayantan-bera-4683609.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN
Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please&nbsp;</span><a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/some-red-flags-in-the-economy-numbers-agriculture-is-the-most-alarming-rn-bhaskar-4683608.html">click here</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 10.5pt">to access&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>
<br />
</span>
</p>
<p style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial" class="MsoNormal">
<span>Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business
Line, 7 January, 2018, please&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="https://im4change.in/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html" title="http://www.im4change.org/latest-news-updates/bullish-agri-ministry-expects-higher-gva-growth-in-2017-18-4683602.html">click here</a>&nbsp;to
access&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>
</p>
<p>
&nbsp;
</p>
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<span>&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;
</div>
<p>
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खेती किसानी की हालत : आखिर कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों का सच क्या है ?

Published on Jan 25, 2018   Modified on Jan 25, 2018

दो मंत्रालय और दो तरह के आकलन, क्षेत्र मगर एक, खेती-किसानी का ! आकड़ों के विरोधाभास की ऐसी हालत में कोई वास्तविक स्थिति का किस तरह अनुमान लगाये ?   अगर ऊपर लिखी बात आपको किसी पहेली की तरह लग रही हो तो इस तथ्य पर गौर कीजिए-केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय के नये आंकड़े में अनुमान लगाया गया है कि कृषि-क्षेत्र में सकल मूल्य वर्धन(जीवीए) पिछले साल के मुकाबले कम होगा. लेकिन, कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय का आकलन है कि खेती-किसानी में जीवीए में गिरावट नहीं आयेगी.(जीवीए कहते हैं जीडीपी और निवल अप्रत्यक्ष करों के आपसी अंतर को)   लेकिन सरकार के दो महकमों को एक ही क्षेत्र की एक-दूसरे से अलग तस्वीर क्योंकर दिख रही है. आखिर, गणना की उनकी पद्धति में क्या अन्तर है जो दोनों महकमे नतीजे एक-दूसरे से एकदम उलट सुना रहे हैं? इस सवाल के जवाब के लिए पहले तथ्यों पर गौर करें--   केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने हाल में वित्त वर्ष 2017-18 के लिए सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) और सकल मूल्य वर्धन (जीवीए) के अग्रिम अनुमान जारी किए हैं. इस अनुमान के मुताबिक कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन में जीवीए की वृद्धि दर 2016-17 के 4.9 से घटकर 2017-18 में 2.1 प्रतिशत होने के आसार हैं.   केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय(सीएसओ) ने साल 2017-18 की मुख्य खरीफ फसलों के उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान तथा रबी की बुवाई के लक्ष्य को आधार बनाकर अपना आकलन पेश किया है- सांख्यिकी एवं कार्यक्रम क्रियान्वयन मंत्रालय की प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति से यह बात स्पष्ट हो जाती है.   विज्ञप्ति में स्पष्ट किया गया है कि सीएसओ ने फसलों से संबंधित आकलन के लिए कृषि-मंत्रालय के एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन विभाग से हासिल सूचनाओं का इस्तेमाल किया. विभाग की सूचनाओं से खरीफ के मौसम के दौरान उत्पादन के कम रहने के संकेत मिलते हैं. साल 2016-17 में खरीफ फसलों का उत्पादन 138-52 मिलियन टन रहा था जबकि इस कृषि-वर्ष(2017-18) में खरीफ के मौसम में फसलों का उत्पादन घटकर 134.67 मिलियन टन हो सकता है.   प्रेस विज्ञप्ति से यह भी जाहिर है कि सीएसओ ने पशुधन से संबंधित उत्पादन के आकलन के लिए दूध, अंडा, मांस तथा ऊन से संबंधित कृषि-विभाग के पशपालन महकमे के आंकड़ों का इस्तेमाल किया.   गौरतलब है कि 'कृषि, बागवानी और मछली पालन ' नाम से सरकारी दस्तावेजों में दर्ज की जाने वाली आर्थिक गतिविधि में फसल, पशुधन, वानिकी, मत्स्य पालन तथा जलीय कृषि(एक्वाकल्चर) को शामिल किया जाता है और जीवीए में फसलों की हिस्सेदारी 60 प्रतिशत, पशुधन की 20 प्रतिशत, वानिकी की 8.5 फीसद तथा मछली पालन और एक्वाकल्चर 5.5 प्रतिशत की है.   बताते चलें कि खाद्यान्न के उत्पादन से संबंधित प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान(2017-18) 22 सितंबर 2017 को जारी हुए थे जबकि बागवानी से संबंधित उत्पादन के प्रथम अग्रिम अनुमान 2 जनवरी 2018 को जारी हुए.और, इसी तथ्य के आधार पर कृषि एवं किसान कल्याण मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ की आकलन से एकदम उलट तस्वीर पेश की है.   मंत्रालय के 7 जनवरी 2018 की प्रेस विज्ञप्ति में कहा है कि सीएसओ के अग्रिम अनुमान डीईएस(डायरेक्टोरेट ऑफ इकॉनॉमिक्स एंड स्टैटिक्स) की सूचनाओं पर आधारित हैं. डीईएस ने "खाद्यान्न, तिलहन और वाणिज्यिक फसलों के संबंध में खरीफ 2017-18 के दौरान बुवाई क्षेत्र और उत्पादन से संबंधित आंकड़ों को साझा किया जो अगस्त, 2017 तक इस बारे में किये गए संकलन पर आधारित है. साथ में यह भी कहा गया है कि डीईएस के ये अनुमान मुख्‍यत: राज्य सरकारों द्वारा व्‍यक्‍त किए गए अनुमानों पर आधारित हैं."   तो क्या डीईएस ने सीएसओ से जिन सूचनाओं का साझा किया वे विश्वसनीय नहीं है ? कृषि एवं किसान मंत्रालय की प्रेस-विज्ञप्ति कुछ ऐसा ही संकेत करती है.   विज्ञप्ति के मुताबिक मानसून के शुरू होने में देरी की वजह से अगस्त 2017 तक फसलों की रोपाई-बुवाई का जो क्षेत्र दर्ज किया गया वह कम था लेकिन दिसंबर 2017 तक यह स्थिति बदली और फसलों का कवरेज एरिया बढ़ गया.   कृषि-मंत्रालय का तर्क है कि "देश के कुछ हिस्सों में मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी के कारण अगस्त 2017 तक खरीफ में विभिन्न फसलों के क्षेत्र में कवरेज पिछले वर्ष से कम था. हालांकि, इसके बाद अच्छी बारिश से मंत्रालय को खरीफ के लक्ष्य के अनुसार क्षेत्र की कवरेज बढ़ाने में मदद मिली. मानसून की शुरुआत में देरी और पिछले वर्ष की तुलना में अपेक्षाकृत कम बारिश के बावजूद खरीफ के तहत एरिया कवरेज अंततः 106.55 मिलियन हेक्टेयर तक पहुंच गया है जबकि पांच वर्षों का औसत 105.86 मिलियन हेक्टेयर है."   मॉनसून की बाद के वक्त में सुधरी हुई स्थिति और फसलों के बढ़े हुए कवरेज एरिया के आधार पर कृषि मंत्रालय ने सीएसओ के जीवीए संबंधी अनुमान को नकार तो दिया है लेकिन एक सवाल बचा रह जाता है : अगर डीईएस यानि अर्थशास्त्र एवं सांख्यिकी निदेशालय(यह डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ एग्रीकल्चर एंड को-ऑपरेशन के अंतर्गत है जो कृषि मंत्रालय का हिस्सा है) को परंपरा के हिसाब से 2019 की फरवरी में प्रमुख फसलों के उत्पादन का अंतिम अनुमान प्रकाशित करना ही है तो फिर कृषि-मंत्रालय को ऐसी क्या जरुरत आन पड़ी जो उसने कृषि-क्षेत्र के जीवीए की अपेक्षित बढ़वार के बारे में अपनी तरफ से बजट पेश होने के तुरंत पहले स्पष्टीकरण जारी करना जरुरी समझा ?    इस कथा के विस्तार के लिए देखं निम्नलिखित लिंक्स--     Press release: Strategy for High Agricultural Growth Rate, 2017-18 -Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Press Information Bureau, dated 7 January, 2018, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175456     Press Note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18, released on 5 January, 2018, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please click here to access   Press release: First Advance Estimate 2017-18 and Final estimate 2016-17 for area and production of Horticulture Crops, released on 2 January, 2018, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=175158    Area and Production of Horticulture Crops - All India 2016-17 (Final) and 2017-18 (First Advance Estimates), please click here to access  First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2017-18, released on 22 September, 2017, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, please click here to access    2017 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD, please click here to access     2016 Southwest Monsoon end of season report, IMD, please click here to access    Poor south west monsoon rainfall sours hope for good foodgrain output, News alert from Inclusive Media for Change, dated 10 November, 2017, please click here to access   Cropping seasons of India- Kharif & Rabi, Arthapedia, please click here to read more   Agriculture ministry expects upward revision of farm growth rates -Sayantan Bera, Livemint.com, 9 January, 2018, please click here to access   Some red flags in the economy numbers: Agriculture is the most alarming -RN Bhaskar, MoneyControl.com, 7 January, 2018, please click hereto access  Bullish Agri Ministry expects higher GVA growth in 2017-18, The Hindu Business Line, 7 January, 2018, please click here to access

Tagged with: जीवीए संकल मूल्य वर्धन किसानी की दशा आंकड़ों में विरोधाभास केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय कृषि मंत्रालय जीवीए संकल मूल्य वर्धन किसानी की दशा आंकड़ों में विरोधाभास केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय कृषि मंत्रालय

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"Session 2: Farmer Centric Digitalisation in Agriculture" in Exploring...

"Session 3: Future of Digitalisation in Agriculture" in Exploring...

• Public Spending on Agriculture in India (Source: Foundation for...
• Agrarian Change Seminar: 'Protests against the New Farm Laws...
• Webinar: Ramrao - The Story of India's Farm Crisis...
• Water and Agricultural Transformation in India: A Symbiotic Relationship...
• More...

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