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Agriculture | US input to help India meteorological department predict rains better

US input to help India meteorological department predict rains better

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published Published on Apr 20, 2012   modified Modified on Apr 20, 2012
Weather
As part of its efforts to forecast monsoon better, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will incorporate readings from one of the latest US climate forecast models that is being improved for Indian conditions.

IMD will release its monsoon forecast for this year in the middle of next week, while weather experts from South Asia gathered in Pune will come out with their forecast for the South Asian region on Friday.

Advanced countries base their seasonal climate forecast on dynamical models while IMD still uses statistical models. The met department has been criticised for its failure to predict some of the droughts in the last two decades.

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched a national Monsoon Mission last month to help IMD, an independent organisation under the ministry, shift to a dynamical model. As part of the mission, the ministry has signed an agreement with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States.

The Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, another independent organisation under the ministry, has been using the climate forecast system (CFS), a dynamical model of NOAA's National Centre for Environment Prediction for the last three years on an experimental basis.

It is trying to improve the model for Indian conditions. "We have been using the dynamical models on an experimental basis for the last three years. The dynamical models will be eventually operational at IMD," said the institute's director Prof BN Goswami.

"We have used the latest high-resolution version of CFS for monsoon prediction this year," he added. He was speaking at the inauguration of the two-day South Asian Climate Outlook Forum-3 being organised in Pune.

A senior IMD scientist said the department will come out with a monsoon forecast for the country between April 25 and April 27 based on the statistical model.

However, it will contain inputs from the CFS either as a separate section or as part of the main forecast. The Monsoon Mission aims to improve the CFS model for Indian conditions by combining research from multiple agencies.

"We have received 19 research proposals till now from across the country. After the cabinet's approval, we will soon begin accepting proposals from overseas," said Dr M Rajeevan, MoES.

Under the SASCOF aegis, meteorologists from across South Asia gather every year to develop a consensus on seasonal rainfall forecast with the support of the World Meteorological Organisation. Myanmar has become the new member of SASCOF that includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
 

The Economic Times, 20 April, 2012, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/us-input-to-help-india-meteorological-department-predict-rains-better/articleshow/12738743.cms


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