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Interviews | Sanjeev Sanyal, principal economic advisor, interviewed by Kamalika Ghosh (OutlookIndia.com)
Sanjeev Sanyal, principal economic advisor, interviewed by  Kamalika Ghosh (OutlookIndia.com)

Sanjeev Sanyal, principal economic advisor, interviewed by Kamalika Ghosh (OutlookIndia.com)

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published Published on Feb 7, 2022   modified Modified on Feb 9, 2022

-OutlookIndia.com

The principal economic advisor is confident of achieving GDP growth promised by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the budget but is also cautious that some external factors can derail the projections

Automobiles and two-wheelers are seeing muted sales not because of a low-demand situation afflicting the sector, but because there is a supply-side issue about chips, principal economic advisor to the government Sanjeev Sanyal told Outlook Business. He also said that the GDP growth projection of more than eight per cent made in the Economic Survey and 11 per cent in the budget are achievable going forward if there are no major disruptions. He argues that the government has fixed processes to help businesses and deregulated the economy in a major way, especially in the Covid-19 years. When all this is seen with the infrastructure push the government has been making in the last few years, the economy should enter an extended growth phase, as China did earlier, he says. 

Here are the edited excerpts:

* For FY23, the Economic Survey pegged growth at more than eight per cent, and the union budget pegged the nominal GDP growth of 11.1 per cent. How achievable are these projections?

Our assessment is more conservative than what the IMF [International Monetary Fund], World Bank, etc. think. I am very happy to be proved wrong. But, when you do budgeting, I think you need to be a little conservative. As far as our growth focus is concerned, my sense is that there will be some impact of the withdrawal of liquidity from the world and interest rates going up. We have allowed for that [in our estimates]. 

Also, energy prices are elevated, although ours is $70-75 range. Even that is quite high. I do not think that we will be in $90 for a prolonged period of time because there will be some impact of the withdrawal of liquidity. Nevertheless, it will fall and even though we have allowed for supply-side problems in chips and other things to resolve over the course of the year, the fact is that for much of the year it is disruptive. All of this put together, I think eight to eight-and-a-half per cent is a decent growth rate.

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Image Coutesy: OutlookIndia.com


OutlookIndia.com, 7 February, 2022, https://www.outlookindia.com/business/people-underestimate-structural-reforms-of-last-nine-years-they-will-give-india-china-like-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-news-121364?fbclid=IwAR2Du8uWaDHNu5rRQuaIuJpgcYWAVm0ldvBLBcWS6ey-oom


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