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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 10 times hotter in 90 years, says report by Jayanta Basu

10 times hotter in 90 years, says report by Jayanta Basu

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published Published on Nov 19, 2011   modified Modified on Nov 19, 2011

-The Telegraph


The world is likely to get 10 times hotter in the next 90 years, a report released today by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said.

The report links the rise in temperatures to the “high greenhouse gas emission scenario” caused by human activity. It says intense drought, heavy precipitation and intensity of tropical cyclones are also likely to increase.

Titled “Special Report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation”, it has looked at data over the last 50 years to make predictions till the year 2100.

Experts say the observations appear to be a “threatening signal” for countries dependent on agriculture, including India, because “consecutive dry days” and depletion of “soil moisture” are likely to increase in the next 90 years.

“For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world,” said Thomas Stocker, a co-chair of working group I, at the IPCC’s 34th session in Kampala, Uganda.

Working groups I and II have collaborated to prepare the report.

Although the report is “virtually certain” — 99-100 per cent probability — that hot days will become hotter and more frequent globally, it is measured about predicting other extreme events.

“The assessment (on more intense and longer droughts) assigns medium confidence due to lack of direct observation and lack of agreement in available scientific studies,” said Qin Dahe, a co-chair of IPCC working group I.

The report predicts the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially the same but it warns that “maximum wind speed” is likely to “increase”, though not in all places.

Small islands and coastal settlements are likely to be particularly vulnerable because of rise in sea levels and higher temperatures. It is likely — 66-100 per cent probability — that there has been an increase in coastal high waters.

The report says urban communities will become “highly vulnerable” because of rapid urbanisation and growth of mega-cities, especially in developing countries.

“There is no doubt that the summer will be more prolonged and intense and the possibility of drought will increase in several parts of India, including West Bengal,” said Jayshree Roy, a climate expert from Jadavpur University.

“The report has mentioned the Mumbai floods a few years ago and observed that the frequency of such flooding may increase four times in the next 100 years. I believe ditto can happen for cities like Calcutta,” said Chandra Bhusan, an expert with the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.

Other experts said predictions on a rise in sea levels and stronger tropical cyclones do not augur well for the Sunderbans.

“The report underlines the complexity and diversity of factors that are shaping human vulnerability to extremes,” said IPCC chairperson Rajendra Pachauri. 


The Telegraph, 19 November, 2011, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111119/jsp/nation/story_14772073.jsp


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