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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 16-year trend of poor monsoon in Punjab, Haryana -Amit Bhattacharya

16-year trend of poor monsoon in Punjab, Haryana -Amit Bhattacharya

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published Published on Sep 22, 2014   modified Modified on Sep 22, 2014
-The Times of India


NEW DELHI: India's bread basket states of Punjab and Haryana received just around half the normal rainfall this monsoon season. But more worryingly, this year's rain deficit is not an isolated event. The two key agricultural states have been getting below par rainfall for the past 16 years.

Met department figures reveal Punjab has seen above normal monsoon rainfall in just two years since 1999. The last time that happened was seven monsoons ago, in 2008. The stats are similar for Haryana, where rains have been above normal in just four of the last 16 monsoons.

Experts are divided over why rains have been consistently failing in the region but the trend has dire implications for agriculture, which relies heavily on groundwater. The two states are among the most exploited regions in the world for groundwater.

Deficient rains add another dimension to the crisis. Groundwater mainly depends on rainfall for recharge. So, less rain means less groundwater availability. A failed monsoon also means farmers draw more groundwater to irrigate their crops, particularly paddy, accelerating the fall of the water table.

At TOI's request, Prof Krishna AchutaRao from IIT Delhi's Centre for Atmospheric Sciences plotted the annual and seasonal rainfall in the two states since 1980. The rain stats were obtained from the India Meteorological Department.

The linear graph reveals a trend of decreasing rains. It shows average annual rainfall in Punjab falling during this period from just over 800mm in 1980 to less than 600mm in 2014 - a drop of roughly 200mm. Haryana's annual average shows a similar drop, from around 780mm in 1980 to less than 580mm at present.

For monsoon season rainfall, Punjab has seen a drop of nearly 120mm, from an average of around 600mm in 1980 to roughly 480mm this year. In Haryana, it's down from more than 600mm to around 470mm during the same 35-year period.

"The long term decrease in rainfall is apparent from the graph," says AchutaRao, "although the rain statistics for the 1980s show very high variation."

But what's not so apparent is the cause of the decline. D Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at IMD Pune, believes the drop is part of natural variability which will get reversed in time.

"Indian monsoon is passing through a low rainfall epoch since the 1990s. The drop in rainfall in this region could be part of that phenomenon," says Pai.

The story may not be that straightforward, says AchutaRao, who is coordinating multi-agency research into the Indian monsoon.

"There could be several possibilities. The increase in greenhouse gases is leading to oceans heating up faster. Then there's the presence of aerosols over the region that cut off sunlight and depress heating of the land. How these and other factors are affecting the monsoon in this region is not clear," says he.

One of the limitations faced by researchers, says AchutaRao, is that climate models at the moment only give a gross all-India picture and do not resolve smaller regions very well.

A fall in rains has a direct bearing on groundwater levels. According to the Central Ground Water Board, 68% of groundwater replenishment in India is due to rainfall.

According to a CGWB report, Punjab overexploits its groundwater annually by 170%, the highest in the country. Of the 138 blocks in the state, groundwater is overexploited in 110 (80%). Haryana is not far behind, with 59% of blocks being labelled overexploited.


The Times of India, 22 September, 2014, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/16-year-trend-of-poor-monsoon-in-Punjab-Haryana/articleshow/43115393.cms


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