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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 22% monsoon deficit in August, third driest since 1993 -Amit Bhattacharya & Neha Madaan

22% monsoon deficit in August, third driest since 1993 -Amit Bhattacharya & Neha Madaan

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published Published on Sep 1, 2015   modified Modified on Sep 1, 2015
-The Times of India

NEW DELHI/PUNE: August ended with a higher-than-anticipated rainfall deficit of 22% and with top India Meteorological Department officials saying the monsoon could start withdrawing in the next few days, the chances of a second successive drought year in the country appear high.

IMD said the all India weighted average rainfall in August was 204.2mm against a normal of 261mm, making it the third lowest August rainfall in more than two decades. Since 1993, monsoon in August has been weaker only in 2009 (also an El Nino year) and 2005. IMD had predicted a 10% rain shortfall for the month.

July and August are the wettest months of the season. With both ending with high deficits this year, it is unlikely that overall monsoon rains would be higher than 90% of normal — the cutoff mark for a drought year. Currently, the overall monsoon deficiency stands at 11%.

Adding to the bleak scenario is the prospect of the monsoon's retreat beginning soon. "The start of monsoon withdrawal is on cards," said IMD director-general L S Rathore.

The monsoon's retreat, beginning from northwest India, is declared by IMD based on three criteria observed in the region — absence of rain for at least five straight days, a significant drop in moisture and reversal of monsoonal winds by the formation of an anti-cyclone. "We are seeing signs of the first two conditions. In the next few days it is likely that all three criteria will be met," Rathore said.

Monsoon's withdrawal from the country is a long drawn process that usually takes more than a month to complete. Although the normal date for the process to start is September 1, monsoon's withdrawal at this stage from northwest India would increase the rain deficit in the region where Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh already have a significant shortfall.

IMD has predicted a 25% rain deficit in September, the last month of the monsoon season. But rains during the month are highly unpredictable. That's one factor which, officials say, could produce a couple of good spells of rain to reduce the shortfall. A still-strengthening El Nino, however, increases the odds of such an occurrence.

During August, a senior Met official said, August rains were poor in all parts of the country except east and northeast India. "The shortfall is most acute in south peninsula. Northwest India, which did not have any rainfall deficiency in the beginning of August, now has a shortfall of 10%," the official said.

Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said the main reason for the weak monsoon performance in August was the presence of a full-blown El Nino.

"The Pacific Ocean was very active with typhoons this year, which pulled away moisture from the monsoon systems over the Indian Ocean. This can be largely attributed to the El Nino," he said.


The Times of India, 1 September, 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/22-monsoon-deficit-in-August-third-driest-since-1993/articleshow/48752059.cms


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