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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 302 of 614 districts reeling under drought, highest since 2009 -Subodh Varma

302 of 614 districts reeling under drought, highest since 2009 -Subodh Varma

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published Published on Oct 6, 2015   modified Modified on Oct 6, 2015
-The Times of India

There is more to this year's rainfall deficit than meets the eye. After the monsoon was officially declared over on September 30, 17 of the country's 36 weather subdivisions had received deficient or scanty rainfall. That's about 39% of the country's area, home to over 66 crore people, nearly half the country's population. Deficient is when rains are below the average by 20% or more while scanty is when it's below 50%.

Deficient or scanty rains have affected people in 302 districts out 614 that have sent in their rainfall data to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Details of some 27 districts mainly in the North-East and J&K are yet to come in. Eighteen out of 36 states and union territories are affected. Some of the country's top grain producing states like Punjab, Haryana, UP, MP and Bihar are part of this belt. These are also areas of high population density, and high dependence on agriculture. Considering the gigantic scales involved in this drought, it is surprising that not much alarm or preparation is visible at the policy makers' level.

The last time a drought of this scale was witnessed was in 2009 when 338 districts were affected. Before that, in 2002, 383 districts were drought stricken. In 2014 the number of districts affected by deficient rains was 105.

There are other worrying indicators also. In the 91 big reservoirs in the country, current water storage is 61% of their total live storage capacity, according to the latest data from the Central Water Commission (CWC). This is significantly lower than the 10-year average of 77% storage. In the southern region live storage is just 34% of capacity compared to average 81% for the last decade. In the coming days when this reservoir stored water will need to be used for irrigation, power generation and drinking, this shortage will come into play. It will also mean additional pressure on an already over-drawn ground water reserves.

Food grain stocks were 509 lakh metric tons (LMT) on September 1 this year, lower by 15% over the 602 LMT stock last year. This is not because of the monsoon but probably due to the 4.7% dip in grain production last year and only a nominal increase in the minimum support price offered by the government to the farmers. But low stocks is worrying because this is what is going to be consumed in the coming months till the kharif harvest comes in.

So, what about the kharif crop that was sown in this monsoon? According to the first advance estimates released by the government recently, the hope is that kharif production will be 124 million tons. This is mainly rice, pulses and coarse grains. Last year, kharif production was 126.3 million tons. So that's a shortfall of just short of 2%.

But experts say that these first estimates are based on sowing of crops. How the standing crop fared in its life is what determines how much food grain it provides. It is here that the current drought's peculiarities will matter.

In June this year, rainfall was 16% higher than the long period average. This had led to hopes of a good monsoon among the farmers despite the met department's dire warning that monsoon will be deficient. So, sowing was done vigorously. But then the rainfall plummeted.

In many places the paddy plants that are standing today are hollow and grainless. Inadequate water and pest infestations have led to stunted and misformed seeds or sometimes just hollow pods with no seeds. Hence there is likelihood of a shortfall in kharif crop production and even a spurt in prices.

Already, the distress among cultivators and especially the small farmers is visible. Compared to 2013, which had a normal monsoon, this year demand for work has jumped up by 18 percent in the July-August-September trimester.

The Times of India, 3 October, 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/302-of-614-districts-reeling-under-drought-highest-since-2009/articleshow/49200368.cms


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