Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A cycle of low growth, higher inflation -Anand Srinivasan    </title>
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Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery

In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that..."/>
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Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery

In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that..." />
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-The Hindu</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that it will revive by itself. They call those who disagree with them, doomsday merchants. These economists reason that, like after the Great Depression, the economy rebounded worldwide, and so will it with us. The argument is fallacious on four accounts:</p><p style="text-align:justify">The first factor, demand. In the case of the Great Depression, demand was created by the Second World War effort. Especially in the United States, which was largely spared of the destruction, its industrial capabilities could be used as a supply base for the entire Allied effort. In the current scenario, there is no war to create demand. On top of it, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in demand destruction. This is because many jobs have been lost, and even where jobs were retained, there have been pay cuts. Both of these trends were confirmed in the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and other surveys. The only bright spot in this dismal scenario is that the western world has spent a lot of money stimulating the economy. From the point of view of the Indian exporter, rising freight costs and non-availability of containers is a significant impediment along with structural issues such as a strong rupee relative to major competitors. Only the Indian IT sector is placed well to capitalise on rising demand in the world markets.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Next is inflation. India is suffering from stagnant growth to low growth in the last two quarters. At best, any growth in the current quarter will be illusionary because it comes on top of substantial negative growth in the first quarter of last year, perpetuating a statistical phenomenon known as the &ldquo;low base effect&rdquo;. The base effect states that when measuring YoY, or year-over-year growth, we take the previous year&rsquo;s numbers as the base and measure the growth as a percentage. As in the low initial base set by last year, almost any growth this year is seen as a significant growth percentage. In comparison, the absolute growth figure is negligible. This scenario is eerily similar to the early 1970s in the United Kingdom and the United States, where low growth was combined with rising inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Causes in India</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Inflation in India is being imported through a combination of high commodity prices and high asset price inflation caused by ultra-loose monetary policy followed across the globe. Foreign portfolio investors have directed a portion of the liquidity towards our markets. Compared to a developed capital market such as that of the U.S., India has a relatively low market capitalisation. It, therefore, cannot absorb the enormous capital inflow without asset prices inflating. This might be seen as a welcome move, but it is to be noted that most of India&rsquo;s population do not own equity or bonds, which means that they cannot cash in on asset inflation. The wealthy upper class gets richer due to access to financial assets. The middle and lower-middle-class get destitute due to regressive indirect taxes and high inflation, with their wealth eroding due to said inflation. Especially in the case of the lower middle class, inflation is lethal as they do not have access to any hard assets, including the most fundamental hard asset, gold.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 August, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery

In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that..."/>
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Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">A cycle of low growth, higher inflation -Anand Srinivasan</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-The Hindu</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that it will revive by itself. They call those who disagree with them, doomsday merchants. These economists reason that, like after the Great Depression, the economy rebounded worldwide, and so will it with us. The argument is fallacious on four accounts:</p><p style="text-align:justify">The first factor, demand. In the case of the Great Depression, demand was created by the Second World War effort. Especially in the United States, which was largely spared of the destruction, its industrial capabilities could be used as a supply base for the entire Allied effort. In the current scenario, there is no war to create demand. On top of it, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in demand destruction. This is because many jobs have been lost, and even where jobs were retained, there have been pay cuts. Both of these trends were confirmed in the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and other surveys. The only bright spot in this dismal scenario is that the western world has spent a lot of money stimulating the economy. From the point of view of the Indian exporter, rising freight costs and non-availability of containers is a significant impediment along with structural issues such as a strong rupee relative to major competitors. Only the Indian IT sector is placed well to capitalise on rising demand in the world markets.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Next is inflation. India is suffering from stagnant growth to low growth in the last two quarters. At best, any growth in the current quarter will be illusionary because it comes on top of substantial negative growth in the first quarter of last year, perpetuating a statistical phenomenon known as the &ldquo;low base effect&rdquo;. The base effect states that when measuring YoY, or year-over-year growth, we take the previous year&rsquo;s numbers as the base and measure the growth as a percentage. As in the low initial base set by last year, almost any growth this year is seen as a significant growth percentage. In comparison, the absolute growth figure is negligible. This scenario is eerily similar to the early 1970s in the United Kingdom and the United States, where low growth was combined with rising inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Causes in India</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Inflation in India is being imported through a combination of high commodity prices and high asset price inflation caused by ultra-loose monetary policy followed across the globe. Foreign portfolio investors have directed a portion of the liquidity towards our markets. Compared to a developed capital market such as that of the U.S., India has a relatively low market capitalisation. It, therefore, cannot absorb the enormous capital inflow without asset prices inflating. This might be seen as a welcome move, but it is to be noted that most of India&rsquo;s population do not own equity or bonds, which means that they cannot cash in on asset inflation. The wealthy upper class gets richer due to access to financial assets. The middle and lower-middle-class get destitute due to regressive indirect taxes and high inflation, with their wealth eroding due to said inflation. Especially in the case of the lower middle class, inflation is lethal as they do not have access to any hard assets, including the most fundamental hard asset, gold.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 August, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A cycle of low growth, higher inflation -Anand Srinivasan    </title>
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Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery

In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that..."/>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-The Hindu</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that it will revive by itself. They call those who disagree with them, doomsday merchants. These economists reason that, like after the Great Depression, the economy rebounded worldwide, and so will it with us. The argument is fallacious on four accounts:</p><p style="text-align:justify">The first factor, demand. In the case of the Great Depression, demand was created by the Second World War effort. Especially in the United States, which was largely spared of the destruction, its industrial capabilities could be used as a supply base for the entire Allied effort. In the current scenario, there is no war to create demand. On top of it, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in demand destruction. This is because many jobs have been lost, and even where jobs were retained, there have been pay cuts. Both of these trends were confirmed in the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and other surveys. The only bright spot in this dismal scenario is that the western world has spent a lot of money stimulating the economy. From the point of view of the Indian exporter, rising freight costs and non-availability of containers is a significant impediment along with structural issues such as a strong rupee relative to major competitors. Only the Indian IT sector is placed well to capitalise on rising demand in the world markets.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Next is inflation. India is suffering from stagnant growth to low growth in the last two quarters. At best, any growth in the current quarter will be illusionary because it comes on top of substantial negative growth in the first quarter of last year, perpetuating a statistical phenomenon known as the &ldquo;low base effect&rdquo;. The base effect states that when measuring YoY, or year-over-year growth, we take the previous year&rsquo;s numbers as the base and measure the growth as a percentage. As in the low initial base set by last year, almost any growth this year is seen as a significant growth percentage. In comparison, the absolute growth figure is negligible. This scenario is eerily similar to the early 1970s in the United Kingdom and the United States, where low growth was combined with rising inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Causes in India</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Inflation in India is being imported through a combination of high commodity prices and high asset price inflation caused by ultra-loose monetary policy followed across the globe. Foreign portfolio investors have directed a portion of the liquidity towards our markets. Compared to a developed capital market such as that of the U.S., India has a relatively low market capitalisation. It, therefore, cannot absorb the enormous capital inflow without asset prices inflating. This might be seen as a welcome move, but it is to be noted that most of India&rsquo;s population do not own equity or bonds, which means that they cannot cash in on asset inflation. The wealthy upper class gets richer due to access to financial assets. The middle and lower-middle-class get destitute due to regressive indirect taxes and high inflation, with their wealth eroding due to said inflation. Especially in the case of the lower middle class, inflation is lethal as they do not have access to any hard assets, including the most fundamental hard asset, gold.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" title="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 2 August, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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A cycle of low growth, higher inflation -Anand Srinivasan

Published on Aug 2, 2021   Modified on Aug 2, 2021

-The Hindu Unless policy action ensures higher demand and growth, India will continue on the path of a K-shaped recovery In recent times, right-leaning economists have been arguing that the Government does not need to do anything with the economy and that it will revive by itself. They call those who disagree with them, doomsday merchants. These economists reason that, like after the Great Depression, the economy rebounded worldwide, and so will it with us. The argument is fallacious on four accounts: The first factor, demand. In the case of the Great Depression, demand was created by the Second World War effort. Especially in the United States, which was largely spared of the destruction, its industrial capabilities could be used as a supply base for the entire Allied effort. In the current scenario, there is no war to create demand. On top of it, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in demand destruction. This is because many jobs have been lost, and even where jobs were retained, there have been pay cuts. Both of these trends were confirmed in the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and other surveys. The only bright spot in this dismal scenario is that the western world has spent a lot of money stimulating the economy. From the point of view of the Indian exporter, rising freight costs and non-availability of containers is a significant impediment along with structural issues such as a strong rupee relative to major competitors. Only the Indian IT sector is placed well to capitalise on rising demand in the world markets. Next is inflation. India is suffering from stagnant growth to low growth in the last two quarters. At best, any growth in the current quarter will be illusionary because it comes on top of substantial negative growth in the first quarter of last year, perpetuating a statistical phenomenon known as the “low base effect”. The base effect states that when measuring YoY, or year-over-year growth, we take the previous year’s numbers as the base and measure the growth as a percentage. As in the low initial base set by last year, almost any growth this year is seen as a significant growth percentage. In comparison, the absolute growth figure is negligible. This scenario is eerily similar to the early 1970s in the United Kingdom and the United States, where low growth was combined with rising inflation. Causes in India Inflation in India is being imported through a combination of high commodity prices and high asset price inflation caused by ultra-loose monetary policy followed across the globe. Foreign portfolio investors have directed a portion of the liquidity towards our markets. Compared to a developed capital market such as that of the U.S., India has a relatively low market capitalisation. It, therefore, cannot absorb the enormous capital inflow without asset prices inflating. This might be seen as a welcome move, but it is to be noted that most of India’s population do not own equity or bonds, which means that they cannot cash in on asset inflation. The wealthy upper class gets richer due to access to financial assets. The middle and lower-middle-class get destitute due to regressive indirect taxes and high inflation, with their wealth eroding due to said inflation. Especially in the case of the lower middle class, inflation is lethal as they do not have access to any hard assets, including the most fundamental hard asset, gold. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 2 August, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-cycle-of-low-growth-higher-inflation/article35671035.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: Great Depression Effective Demand Inflation financial assets non-performing assets NPAs K-shaped recovery

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