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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A Pandemic and a Union Budget: A Study in Three Acts -Suyash Rai

A Pandemic and a Union Budget: A Study in Three Acts -Suyash Rai

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published Published on Jan 30, 2022   modified Modified on Jan 31, 2022

-TheWire.in

How did the onset of the pandemic affect already-struggling budget management, how did the second wave affect the measures taken in Budget 2021-22 and what should we look for in the upcoming Budget?

The latest estimates suggest that India’s economic output in 2021-22 is likely to, once again, reach the level it was at in 2019-20. If this happens, the pandemic would have delayed India’s journey to prosperity by two years. These two years have obviously been difficult for much of the economy, more so because the economy had already been slowing down – the growth rate had decelerated from 8.3% in 2016-17 to 4% in 2019-20.

During the pre-pandemic period, a few other emerging markets like Brazil, South Africa and Turkey saw similarly sharp slowdowns, while others like China, Indonesia and Malaysia saw only modest decelerations. Overall, the growth data from this period does not paint a picture of a global crisis, but rather, of varied outcomes. India was one of the countries where the slowdown was considerable.

Beyond the GDP numbers, the decade-long sluggishness in new private investments and exports did not augur well for India’s growth prospects.

The fiscal situation before the pandemic

Fiscal management in the pre-pandemic years needs to be considered against this backdrop. Certain facts about fiscal management during these years are worth keeping in mind while interpreting the numbers provided in budget documents and these numbers need to be adjusted for proper interpretation. But first, a brief overview of the fiscal context just before the pandemic.

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TheWire.in, 30 January, 2022, https://thewire.in/economy/a-pandemic-and-a-union-budget-a-study-in-three-acts


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