Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A statistical boost to growth in Indian economy -Manas Chakravarty    </title>
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>While CSO&rsquo;s GDP growth estimates will be a disappointment, it will very likely be explained away soon as the market tries to find new and innovative reasons to extend the rally<br /></em><br />For a few quarters, take all year-on-year (y-o-y) growth figures about the Indian economy with a pinch of salt. That&rsquo;s because they will now be boosted due to the favourable effect of a low base. Since demonetisation and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) led to a downturn in the economy, y-o-y numbers will now show high growth.<br /><br />For example, the 6.4% y-o-y growth in gross value added (GVA), at constant prices, projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for the second half of FY18 looks good, compared with 5.8% GVA growth in the first half. But is it really a big improvement? The 5.8% GVA growth in the first half of FY18 came on top of a 7.2% growth in the first half of FY17, while the 6.4% growth came on top of a plunge in growth to 6.1% in the second half of FY17. So the recovery projected by CSO in the second half is below expectations, which is why several economists are saying it&rsquo;s likely to be revised upward. What the CSO&rsquo;s estimates indicate is that the economic recovery is going to be a shallow, U-shaped one.<br /><br />What else do the CSO estimates say?<br /><br />Growth in &lsquo;trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting&rsquo; sector is estimated to slow in the second half, compared with the first half, in spite of a favourable base effect. Also, growth in the &lsquo;financial, insurance, real estate and professional services&rsquo; group hasn&rsquo;t gone up by much, compared with the hugely favourable base effect. This suggests private sector services will remain sluggish in the second half of the current fiscal. That fits in with data from the Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index (PMI), which show the recovery in services is far slower than that in manufacturing.<br /><br />Growth in the &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;, or the government part of GVA, is estimated at a massive 11% at constant prices in the second half of the current fiscal year, well above the 9.1% growth in the first half. There&rsquo;s no base effect in this group. That means government expenditure is still propping up growth, perhaps as states implement the Pay Commission recommendations for their employees.<br /><br />Indeed, government expenditure has been supporting growth since 2016-17, helping to cushion the economy from the disruption inflicted on it by demonetization, the GST and the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act. The chart shows growth in non-government GVA (Total GVA less &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;) this fiscal year is estimated by CSO to be barely above the growth in 2012-13 and well below that in 2013-14. For the second half of FY18, non-government GVA growth is projected at 5.8% y-o-y.<br /><br />What are the factors that will affect growth? Higher crude oil prices are an obvious headwind, while the tailwinds are higher consumption as the states implement pay revisions, higher exports as the world economy strengthens and a pick-up in investment demand as business optimism recovers. What do CSO&rsquo;s advance estimates tell us about these factors?<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html" title="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">A statistical boost to growth in Indian economy -Manas Chakravarty</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>While CSO&rsquo;s GDP growth estimates will be a disappointment, it will very likely be explained away soon as the market tries to find new and innovative reasons to extend the rally<br /></em><br />For a few quarters, take all year-on-year (y-o-y) growth figures about the Indian economy with a pinch of salt. That&rsquo;s because they will now be boosted due to the favourable effect of a low base. Since demonetisation and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) led to a downturn in the economy, y-o-y numbers will now show high growth.<br /><br />For example, the 6.4% y-o-y growth in gross value added (GVA), at constant prices, projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for the second half of FY18 looks good, compared with 5.8% GVA growth in the first half. But is it really a big improvement? The 5.8% GVA growth in the first half of FY18 came on top of a 7.2% growth in the first half of FY17, while the 6.4% growth came on top of a plunge in growth to 6.1% in the second half of FY17. So the recovery projected by CSO in the second half is below expectations, which is why several economists are saying it&rsquo;s likely to be revised upward. What the CSO&rsquo;s estimates indicate is that the economic recovery is going to be a shallow, U-shaped one.<br /><br />What else do the CSO estimates say?<br /><br />Growth in &lsquo;trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting&rsquo; sector is estimated to slow in the second half, compared with the first half, in spite of a favourable base effect. Also, growth in the &lsquo;financial, insurance, real estate and professional services&rsquo; group hasn&rsquo;t gone up by much, compared with the hugely favourable base effect. This suggests private sector services will remain sluggish in the second half of the current fiscal. That fits in with data from the Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index (PMI), which show the recovery in services is far slower than that in manufacturing.<br /><br />Growth in the &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;, or the government part of GVA, is estimated at a massive 11% at constant prices in the second half of the current fiscal year, well above the 9.1% growth in the first half. There&rsquo;s no base effect in this group. That means government expenditure is still propping up growth, perhaps as states implement the Pay Commission recommendations for their employees.<br /><br />Indeed, government expenditure has been supporting growth since 2016-17, helping to cushion the economy from the disruption inflicted on it by demonetization, the GST and the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act. The chart shows growth in non-government GVA (Total GVA less &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;) this fiscal year is estimated by CSO to be barely above the growth in 2012-13 and well below that in 2013-14. For the second half of FY18, non-government GVA growth is projected at 5.8% y-o-y.<br /><br />What are the factors that will affect growth? Higher crude oil prices are an obvious headwind, while the tailwinds are higher consumption as the states implement pay revisions, higher exports as the world economy strengthens and a pick-up in investment demand as business optimism recovers. What do CSO&rsquo;s advance estimates tell us about these factors?<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html" title="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html" class="re" target="_blank">Livemint.com, 8 January, 2018, http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A statistical boost to growth in Indian economy -Manas Chakravarty    </title>
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                            <div align="justify">-Livemint.com<br /><br /><em>While CSO&rsquo;s GDP growth estimates will be a disappointment, it will very likely be explained away soon as the market tries to find new and innovative reasons to extend the rally<br /></em><br />For a few quarters, take all year-on-year (y-o-y) growth figures about the Indian economy with a pinch of salt. That&rsquo;s because they will now be boosted due to the favourable effect of a low base. Since demonetisation and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) led to a downturn in the economy, y-o-y numbers will now show high growth.<br /><br />For example, the 6.4% y-o-y growth in gross value added (GVA), at constant prices, projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for the second half of FY18 looks good, compared with 5.8% GVA growth in the first half. But is it really a big improvement? The 5.8% GVA growth in the first half of FY18 came on top of a 7.2% growth in the first half of FY17, while the 6.4% growth came on top of a plunge in growth to 6.1% in the second half of FY17. So the recovery projected by CSO in the second half is below expectations, which is why several economists are saying it&rsquo;s likely to be revised upward. What the CSO&rsquo;s estimates indicate is that the economic recovery is going to be a shallow, U-shaped one.<br /><br />What else do the CSO estimates say?<br /><br />Growth in &lsquo;trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting&rsquo; sector is estimated to slow in the second half, compared with the first half, in spite of a favourable base effect. Also, growth in the &lsquo;financial, insurance, real estate and professional services&rsquo; group hasn&rsquo;t gone up by much, compared with the hugely favourable base effect. This suggests private sector services will remain sluggish in the second half of the current fiscal. That fits in with data from the Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index (PMI), which show the recovery in services is far slower than that in manufacturing.<br /><br />Growth in the &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;, or the government part of GVA, is estimated at a massive 11% at constant prices in the second half of the current fiscal year, well above the 9.1% growth in the first half. There&rsquo;s no base effect in this group. That means government expenditure is still propping up growth, perhaps as states implement the Pay Commission recommendations for their employees.<br /><br />Indeed, government expenditure has been supporting growth since 2016-17, helping to cushion the economy from the disruption inflicted on it by demonetization, the GST and the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act. The chart shows growth in non-government GVA (Total GVA less &lsquo;public administration, defence and other expenses&rsquo;) this fiscal year is estimated by CSO to be barely above the growth in 2012-13 and well below that in 2013-14. For the second half of FY18, non-government GVA growth is projected at 5.8% y-o-y.<br /><br />What are the factors that will affect growth? Higher crude oil prices are an obvious headwind, while the tailwinds are higher consumption as the states implement pay revisions, higher exports as the world economy strengthens and a pick-up in investment demand as business optimism recovers. What do CSO&rsquo;s advance estimates tell us about these factors?<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html" title="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html" class="re" target="_blank">Livemint.com, 8 January, 2018, http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

A statistical boost to growth in Indian economy -Manas Chakravarty

Published on Jan 9, 2018   Modified on Jan 9, 2018

-Livemint.com While CSO’s GDP growth estimates will be a disappointment, it will very likely be explained away soon as the market tries to find new and innovative reasons to extend the rally For a few quarters, take all year-on-year (y-o-y) growth figures about the Indian economy with a pinch of salt. That’s because they will now be boosted due to the favourable effect of a low base. Since demonetisation and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) led to a downturn in the economy, y-o-y numbers will now show high growth. For example, the 6.4% y-o-y growth in gross value added (GVA), at constant prices, projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for the second half of FY18 looks good, compared with 5.8% GVA growth in the first half. But is it really a big improvement? The 5.8% GVA growth in the first half of FY18 came on top of a 7.2% growth in the first half of FY17, while the 6.4% growth came on top of a plunge in growth to 6.1% in the second half of FY17. So the recovery projected by CSO in the second half is below expectations, which is why several economists are saying it’s likely to be revised upward. What the CSO’s estimates indicate is that the economic recovery is going to be a shallow, U-shaped one. What else do the CSO estimates say? Growth in ‘trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ sector is estimated to slow in the second half, compared with the first half, in spite of a favourable base effect. Also, growth in the ‘financial, insurance, real estate and professional services’ group hasn’t gone up by much, compared with the hugely favourable base effect. This suggests private sector services will remain sluggish in the second half of the current fiscal. That fits in with data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which show the recovery in services is far slower than that in manufacturing. Growth in the ‘public administration, defence and other expenses’, or the government part of GVA, is estimated at a massive 11% at constant prices in the second half of the current fiscal year, well above the 9.1% growth in the first half. There’s no base effect in this group. That means government expenditure is still propping up growth, perhaps as states implement the Pay Commission recommendations for their employees. Indeed, government expenditure has been supporting growth since 2016-17, helping to cushion the economy from the disruption inflicted on it by demonetization, the GST and the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act. The chart shows growth in non-government GVA (Total GVA less ‘public administration, defence and other expenses’) this fiscal year is estimated by CSO to be barely above the growth in 2012-13 and well below that in 2013-14. For the second half of FY18, non-government GVA growth is projected at 5.8% y-o-y. What are the factors that will affect growth? Higher crude oil prices are an obvious headwind, while the tailwinds are higher consumption as the states implement pay revisions, higher exports as the world economy strengthens and a pick-up in investment demand as business optimism recovers. What do CSO’s advance estimates tell us about these factors? Please click here to read more.

Livemint.com, 8 January, 2018, http://www.livemint.com/Money/Gcz4HCZovy7aXDJ9Ner9cJ/A-statistical-boost-to-growth-in-Indian-economy.html

Tagged with: Central Statistics Office (CSO) gross value added Economic Growth

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