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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Advance estimates peg this year’s kharif yield at less than that of 2014-15

Advance estimates peg this year’s kharif yield at less than that of 2014-15

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published Published on Sep 17, 2015   modified Modified on Sep 17, 2015
-The Times of India

NEW DELHI: Hit by drought in two consecutive years due to deficit Monsoon, India's food-grain production is likely to decline this year. The government's first 'advance estimates', released on Wednesday, put the total Kharif (summer) foodgrain production for 2015-16 at 124.05 million tonnes (MT) which is 2.26 MT less than the 'actual' Kharif output of 2014-15.

If one takes into account only 'first advance estimates' of Kharif foodgrain production, this year's scenario looks better than last year. But its upward revision in subsequent estimates appears remote as the current Monsoon season shows higher deficit than last year.

The first advance estimates for 2015-16 of total production of Kharif foodgrain at 124.05 MT is higher by 3.78 MT as compared to 120.27 MT in the first advance estimates for 2014-15.

However, the picture may be different after subsequent estimates, based on harvest. As far as actual production is concerned, the Kharif foodgrain output was 126.31 MT in 2014-15 crop year (July-June) when the Monsoon rainfall recorded a deficit of 12%.

Releasing the first advance estimates for 2015-16 kharif crops, the agriculture ministry said, "The cumulative rainfall during the current monsoon season has been deficient by 15%."

As a result, the Kharif production of rice, coarse cereals and pulses, which are part of the foodgrain basket, is likely to decline this year as compared to the fourth advance estimates of Kharif foodgrain output for 2014-15. Fourth estimates is considered as good as final output.

Releasing the first estimates, the ministry made it clear that these are preliminary estimates and would undergo revision based on feedback from the states. It releases four estimates before the final one.

Production of Kharif rice is estimated at 90.61 million tones, higher by 2.59 million tonnes estimated as per the 1st advance estimates for 2014-15 and also higher by 0.98 million tonnes than its 5 years' average production. But, the estimate is quite less than the final output of 104.80 MT.

As per 1st advance estimates for 2015-16, total production of Kharif coarse cereals is estimated at 27.88 million tonnes which is higher by 0.83 million tonnes as compared to production of 27.05 million tonnes of Kharif coarse cereals estimated as per 1st advance estimates for 2014-15. However, the production estimate for maize is marginally lower this year as compared to the 1st advance estimates for 2014-15.

Among pulses, production of tur is estimated to decline to 2.61 MT in the 2015-16 Kharif season from 2.71 MT, but urad production is projected to increase to 1.37 MT from 1.27 MT in the period under review.

Interestingly, oilseeds production is likely to increase to 19.89 MT in 2015-16 Kharif season from 18.32 MT a year ago.

The Times of India, 17 September, 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Advance-estimates-peg-this-years-kharif-yield-at-less-than-that-of-2014-15/articleshow/48994029.cms


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