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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Are we overestimating the fiscal boost to the economy? -Roshan Kishore

Are we overestimating the fiscal boost to the economy? -Roshan Kishore

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published Published on Jan 7, 2022   modified Modified on Jan 8, 2022

-Hindustan Times

Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics are released at both current and constant prices. The latter discounts inflation (more on this later) from the base year of the current GDP series.

Let’s assume it takes a tonne of steel to build half a kilometre of road. Let’s also assume steel costs 1,000 a tonne and there is a tax of 10% on steel. Now, if steel prices doubled in a year, then government spending and taxes from steel will also double, although the length of road remains the same. Prices do not typically double in a year, but this hypothetical example shows that in years of abnormal inflationary movements, fiscal waters can easily get muddied. The 2021-22 financial year could be one such year for the Indian economy. Here are four charts that explain why.

Nominal growth component of the GDP has been increasing

Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics are released at both current and constant prices. The latter discounts inflation (more on this later) from the base year of the current GDP series. While real GDP matters to track the growth of actual output, nominal numbers are important on at least two counts: government finances and terms of trade, or ratio of prices, between sectors. A look at quarterly GDP statistics shows that the nominal growth component, or the difference between current and constant price growth, has increased sharply in the current fiscal year that ends in March 2022. At 11.6 and 9.1 percentage points in the June and September quarters, the nominal growth component was the highest since September 2011.

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Hindustan Times, 7 January, 2022, https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/will-just-a-capex-focus-in-the-budget-work-for-the-economy-101641548160682.html


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