Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Avoid the adventurous path -M Govinda Rao and C Rangarajan    </title>
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-The Hindu

Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems

The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented..."/>
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Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems

The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems<br /></em><br />The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented upon. The policy prescriptions needed to reverse the trend depend on our understanding of the factors responsible for the slowdown. Among other things, one factor that stands out is the steady and sharp decline in the investment rate. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate has touched the level of 27.5% in the first quarter of 2017-18. A year ago, it was 29.2%, and a decade ago, it was 10 percentage points higher. In recent years, public investment has shown a small rise. The decline in the investment rate has been largely due to a decline in the private investment rate, both corporate and household.<br /><br /><em>Fiscal and revenue deficits<br /></em><br />Given this situation, policy initiatives must be directed towards raising private investment. However, some have argued for a strong fiscal stimulus through an increase in public investment by relaxing the fiscal deficit. It is also suggested that what is relevant is revenue deficit and that there is no rationale for having a fiscal deficit target. There are two problems with this argument. First, the focus on fiscal deficit is mainly to ensure that the private sector has sufficient borrowing space. This is clearly set out in the Report of the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) chaired by the first author and which was reiterated by the recent Report of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee chaired by N.K. Singh, former Revenue and Expenditure Secretary and former Member of Parliament. The argument in the TFC was that when the transferable saving of the household sector relative to GDP is 10% and an acceptable level of current account deficit 1.5%, containing the aggregate deficit of the Centre and States at 6% and providing 1.5% to the public sector enterprises would leave 4% borrowing space to the private sector.<br /><br />Similarly, the target of debt-GDP ratio at 60% in 2023 from the present level of 70% (with the Centre and States required to contain their ratios at 40% and 20%, respectively) is supposed to be achieved by limiting the fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP in the first three years and 2.5% in the next two by both the Centre and States.<br /><br />Second, over 60% of the estimated fiscal deficit at the Centre in 2017-18 (1.9% out of 3.2%) is revenue deficit. At the State level, when the impact of loan waivers, additional interest payments on account of Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) and possible impact of pay revision is considered, the revenue deficit may increase by 1% of GDP. Thus, the problem of proliferation in revenue deficit continues. The golden rule which the U.K. wanted to follow set no limit on fiscal deficit. But borrowing was limited to only financing capital expenditures. The implication is revenue deficit will be nil. We are far from this.<br /><br /><em>History of fiscal laxity<br /></em><br />Indian economic history is replete with instances of adverse effects of fiscal expansion on inflation as well as the balance of payments. The huge fiscal expansion in the late 1980s, with the fiscal deficit at more than 10% of GDP leading to the macroeconomic and balance of payments crisis requiring the adoption of structural adjustment programme in 1991, has been very well documented. The recent episode of fiscal expansion after 2008-09 and 2009-10 is fresh in memory. After substantial improvement in the fiscal situation during the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, the implementation of the Pay Commission recommendation, expansion of rural employment guarantee for the whole country and the introduction of the loan waiver led to derailing the process of adjustment in 2008-09, and the fiscal deficit of the Centre increased from 2.5% in 2007-08 to 6.1% in 2008-09. It further ballooned to 6.6% in 2009-10 and the consolidated deficit was 9.4%. This was one of the important reasons for the inflation rate increasing to 10.2% in March 2010, and the average increase in wholesale price index in 2010-11 was 11.1%.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 17 October, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Avoid the adventurous path -M Govinda Rao and C Rangarajan</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems<br /></em><br />The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented upon. The policy prescriptions needed to reverse the trend depend on our understanding of the factors responsible for the slowdown. Among other things, one factor that stands out is the steady and sharp decline in the investment rate. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate has touched the level of 27.5% in the first quarter of 2017-18. A year ago, it was 29.2%, and a decade ago, it was 10 percentage points higher. In recent years, public investment has shown a small rise. The decline in the investment rate has been largely due to a decline in the private investment rate, both corporate and household.<br /><br /><em>Fiscal and revenue deficits<br /></em><br />Given this situation, policy initiatives must be directed towards raising private investment. However, some have argued for a strong fiscal stimulus through an increase in public investment by relaxing the fiscal deficit. It is also suggested that what is relevant is revenue deficit and that there is no rationale for having a fiscal deficit target. There are two problems with this argument. First, the focus on fiscal deficit is mainly to ensure that the private sector has sufficient borrowing space. This is clearly set out in the Report of the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) chaired by the first author and which was reiterated by the recent Report of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee chaired by N.K. Singh, former Revenue and Expenditure Secretary and former Member of Parliament. The argument in the TFC was that when the transferable saving of the household sector relative to GDP is 10% and an acceptable level of current account deficit 1.5%, containing the aggregate deficit of the Centre and States at 6% and providing 1.5% to the public sector enterprises would leave 4% borrowing space to the private sector.<br /><br />Similarly, the target of debt-GDP ratio at 60% in 2023 from the present level of 70% (with the Centre and States required to contain their ratios at 40% and 20%, respectively) is supposed to be achieved by limiting the fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP in the first three years and 2.5% in the next two by both the Centre and States.<br /><br />Second, over 60% of the estimated fiscal deficit at the Centre in 2017-18 (1.9% out of 3.2%) is revenue deficit. At the State level, when the impact of loan waivers, additional interest payments on account of Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) and possible impact of pay revision is considered, the revenue deficit may increase by 1% of GDP. Thus, the problem of proliferation in revenue deficit continues. The golden rule which the U.K. wanted to follow set no limit on fiscal deficit. But borrowing was limited to only financing capital expenditures. The implication is revenue deficit will be nil. We are far from this.<br /><br /><em>History of fiscal laxity<br /></em><br />Indian economic history is replete with instances of adverse effects of fiscal expansion on inflation as well as the balance of payments. The huge fiscal expansion in the late 1980s, with the fiscal deficit at more than 10% of GDP leading to the macroeconomic and balance of payments crisis requiring the adoption of structural adjustment programme in 1991, has been very well documented. The recent episode of fiscal expansion after 2008-09 and 2009-10 is fresh in memory. After substantial improvement in the fiscal situation during the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, the implementation of the Pay Commission recommendation, expansion of rural employment guarantee for the whole country and the introduction of the loan waiver led to derailing the process of adjustment in 2008-09, and the fiscal deficit of the Centre increased from 2.5% in 2007-08 to 6.1% in 2008-09. It further ballooned to 6.6% in 2009-10 and the consolidated deficit was 9.4%. This was one of the important reasons for the inflation rate increasing to 10.2% in March 2010, and the average increase in wholesale price index in 2010-11 was 11.1%.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 17 October, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India&rsquo;s economy in problems<br /></em><br />The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented upon. The policy prescriptions needed to reverse the trend depend on our understanding of the factors responsible for the slowdown. Among other things, one factor that stands out is the steady and sharp decline in the investment rate. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate has touched the level of 27.5% in the first quarter of 2017-18. A year ago, it was 29.2%, and a decade ago, it was 10 percentage points higher. In recent years, public investment has shown a small rise. The decline in the investment rate has been largely due to a decline in the private investment rate, both corporate and household.<br /><br /><em>Fiscal and revenue deficits<br /></em><br />Given this situation, policy initiatives must be directed towards raising private investment. However, some have argued for a strong fiscal stimulus through an increase in public investment by relaxing the fiscal deficit. It is also suggested that what is relevant is revenue deficit and that there is no rationale for having a fiscal deficit target. There are two problems with this argument. First, the focus on fiscal deficit is mainly to ensure that the private sector has sufficient borrowing space. This is clearly set out in the Report of the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) chaired by the first author and which was reiterated by the recent Report of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee chaired by N.K. Singh, former Revenue and Expenditure Secretary and former Member of Parliament. The argument in the TFC was that when the transferable saving of the household sector relative to GDP is 10% and an acceptable level of current account deficit 1.5%, containing the aggregate deficit of the Centre and States at 6% and providing 1.5% to the public sector enterprises would leave 4% borrowing space to the private sector.<br /><br />Similarly, the target of debt-GDP ratio at 60% in 2023 from the present level of 70% (with the Centre and States required to contain their ratios at 40% and 20%, respectively) is supposed to be achieved by limiting the fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP in the first three years and 2.5% in the next two by both the Centre and States.<br /><br />Second, over 60% of the estimated fiscal deficit at the Centre in 2017-18 (1.9% out of 3.2%) is revenue deficit. At the State level, when the impact of loan waivers, additional interest payments on account of Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) and possible impact of pay revision is considered, the revenue deficit may increase by 1% of GDP. Thus, the problem of proliferation in revenue deficit continues. The golden rule which the U.K. wanted to follow set no limit on fiscal deficit. But borrowing was limited to only financing capital expenditures. The implication is revenue deficit will be nil. We are far from this.<br /><br /><em>History of fiscal laxity<br /></em><br />Indian economic history is replete with instances of adverse effects of fiscal expansion on inflation as well as the balance of payments. The huge fiscal expansion in the late 1980s, with the fiscal deficit at more than 10% of GDP leading to the macroeconomic and balance of payments crisis requiring the adoption of structural adjustment programme in 1991, has been very well documented. The recent episode of fiscal expansion after 2008-09 and 2009-10 is fresh in memory. After substantial improvement in the fiscal situation during the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, the implementation of the Pay Commission recommendation, expansion of rural employment guarantee for the whole country and the introduction of the loan waiver led to derailing the process of adjustment in 2008-09, and the fiscal deficit of the Centre increased from 2.5% in 2007-08 to 6.1% in 2008-09. It further ballooned to 6.6% in 2009-10 and the consolidated deficit was 9.4%. This was one of the important reasons for the inflation rate increasing to 10.2% in March 2010, and the average increase in wholesale price index in 2010-11 was 11.1%.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 17 October, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

Avoid the adventurous path -M Govinda Rao and C Rangarajan

Published on Oct 17, 2017   Modified on Oct 17, 2017

-The Hindu Any aggressive attempt to widen the fiscal deficit will land India’s economy in problems The sharp deceleration in the growth of the economy as revealed by the first quarter estimate of GDP released a month ago has been widely commented upon. The policy prescriptions needed to reverse the trend depend on our understanding of the factors responsible for the slowdown. Among other things, one factor that stands out is the steady and sharp decline in the investment rate. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate has touched the level of 27.5% in the first quarter of 2017-18. A year ago, it was 29.2%, and a decade ago, it was 10 percentage points higher. In recent years, public investment has shown a small rise. The decline in the investment rate has been largely due to a decline in the private investment rate, both corporate and household. Fiscal and revenue deficits Given this situation, policy initiatives must be directed towards raising private investment. However, some have argued for a strong fiscal stimulus through an increase in public investment by relaxing the fiscal deficit. It is also suggested that what is relevant is revenue deficit and that there is no rationale for having a fiscal deficit target. There are two problems with this argument. First, the focus on fiscal deficit is mainly to ensure that the private sector has sufficient borrowing space. This is clearly set out in the Report of the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) chaired by the first author and which was reiterated by the recent Report of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee chaired by N.K. Singh, former Revenue and Expenditure Secretary and former Member of Parliament. The argument in the TFC was that when the transferable saving of the household sector relative to GDP is 10% and an acceptable level of current account deficit 1.5%, containing the aggregate deficit of the Centre and States at 6% and providing 1.5% to the public sector enterprises would leave 4% borrowing space to the private sector. Similarly, the target of debt-GDP ratio at 60% in 2023 from the present level of 70% (with the Centre and States required to contain their ratios at 40% and 20%, respectively) is supposed to be achieved by limiting the fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP in the first three years and 2.5% in the next two by both the Centre and States. Second, over 60% of the estimated fiscal deficit at the Centre in 2017-18 (1.9% out of 3.2%) is revenue deficit. At the State level, when the impact of loan waivers, additional interest payments on account of Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) and possible impact of pay revision is considered, the revenue deficit may increase by 1% of GDP. Thus, the problem of proliferation in revenue deficit continues. The golden rule which the U.K. wanted to follow set no limit on fiscal deficit. But borrowing was limited to only financing capital expenditures. The implication is revenue deficit will be nil. We are far from this. History of fiscal laxity Indian economic history is replete with instances of adverse effects of fiscal expansion on inflation as well as the balance of payments. The huge fiscal expansion in the late 1980s, with the fiscal deficit at more than 10% of GDP leading to the macroeconomic and balance of payments crisis requiring the adoption of structural adjustment programme in 1991, has been very well documented. The recent episode of fiscal expansion after 2008-09 and 2009-10 is fresh in memory. After substantial improvement in the fiscal situation during the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, the implementation of the Pay Commission recommendation, expansion of rural employment guarantee for the whole country and the introduction of the loan waiver led to derailing the process of adjustment in 2008-09, and the fiscal deficit of the Centre increased from 2.5% in 2007-08 to 6.1% in 2008-09. It further ballooned to 6.6% in 2009-10 and the consolidated deficit was 9.4%. This was one of the important reasons for the inflation rate increasing to 10.2% in March 2010, and the average increase in wholesale price index in 2010-11 was 11.1%. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 17 October, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/avoid-the-adventurous-path/article19872525.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: Investment Savings fiscal deficit Revenue Deficit Economic Growth Private Sector Investment Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

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