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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Bets on India's normal monsoon seen at risk on El Nino outlook -Pratik Parija

Bets on India's normal monsoon seen at risk on El Nino outlook -Pratik Parija

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published Published on Apr 22, 2017   modified Modified on Apr 22, 2017
-Livemint.com

While initial monsoon forecast bodes well for the season that accounts for over 70% of annual rainfall, IMD also predicts of 50% chance of weak El Nino formation from Sept

New Delhi:
India’s annual monsoon forecast sends social media into overdrive and is splashed across newspapers. This year’s outlook has some analysts warning that weather watchers may be disappointed.

India is set for a normal June to September monsoon, with rainfall of 96% of the long-term average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Tuesday. While the initial forecast bodes well for the season that accounts for more than 70% of annual rain and waters half of total farmland, there are concerns this year’s prediction could disappoint.

The outlook sits at the bottom of the department’s normal range, which it defines as 96% to 104%. Farmers, analysts and traders are assessing the likely impacts from an El Nino that’s expected to develop in coming months and risks bringing drier conditions. Drought may prompt Indian consumers to boost imports of commodities including wheat, cooking oils, pulses and sugar. More than 800 million people live in Indian villages and depend on farming.

“There are risks to monsoon from El Nino and as we progress, unpredictability will increase,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. “If rains fail, imports of agricultural commodities will increase. But one comforting factor is the local currency is strong and that will keep current account deficit under control.”

Last year’s initial monsoon forecast was 106% and actual rainfall was 97%. In 2015, the prediction was for 93% and total rain was 86%. The department’s estimate has a margin of error of 5% and it will give its next forecast in June.

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Livemint.com, 20 April, 2017, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/ysQqYBDW24Sr41qNBvcnNL/Bets-on-Indias-normal-monsoon-seen-at-risk-on-El-Nino-outlo.html


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