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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Break in monsoon likely in next few days-Neha Lalchandani

Break in monsoon likely in next few days-Neha Lalchandani

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published Published on Jul 14, 2012   modified Modified on Jul 14, 2012
-The Times of India

After a good spell of rain over large parts of northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Uttarakhand, a break in the monsoon system is likely over the next few days that can threaten to undo the gains recorded in July so far.

Met officials say a break in rainfall is expected between Saturday and next Thursday. Only very light sporadic showers may occur over the region, with the trends so far in keeping with the prediction that the northwest would get the lowest rainfall.

But the repeated breaks in the monsoon are worrying as unless rainfall in July and August is close to the levels anticipated by the Met, the overall precipitation may fall further. The patchy monsoon has defied prediction models with even broad outcomes not easy to anticipate.

Under the impact of an active monsoon in recent days, heavy rains were reported on Friday over several parts of Delhi in the morning and again in the evening. At the Safdarjung observatory, 24-hour rainfall till 8.30 am was 4.1 mm while another 0.4 mm was recorded till 5.30 pm.

The day remained cloudy and despite a maximum temperature of 36.2 degrees celsius, one degree above normal, and a minimum of 27.4 degrees Celsius, one degree above normal, humidity levels of 92% left the day quite uncomfortable.

Rains may recede in the northwest, but Met officials said the monsoon is expected to strengthen over the southern peninsula after 2-3 days.

"Madden-Julian Oscillation, a combination of atmospheric circulation and tropical convection, which has been lying over the Indian Ocean for almost a week now, is expected to move eastwards shortly. Once this shifts, the southern peninsular region will get better rainfall which will result in a simultaneous reduction in rainfall activity over northwest and north India," said Dr D Sivananda Pai, IMD's chief monsoon forecaster.

"Right now, due to the movement of the monsoon trough towards the Himalayan foothills, north and east India are witnessing widespread light to moderate showers. This trough will also move southwards by the beginning of the next week which will result in a reduction in rainfall over these regions," Pai added.

However, some experts point out that the coming week might not see an overall improvement in rainfall over the country. "With the MJO impact, rainfall over south India may improve but still not be rated as good. No strong systems have formed that will help in rainfall. Northwest India too will see only sporadic showers. A deficiency of 23% existed in rainfall over the country till Friday. I do not see any significant change in it in the coming few days," said a source.

A western disturbance expected around July 19 might bring some relief though. Dr R C Vashisth, director, IMD, said that the interaction between the western disturbance and moist easterly winds should bring another spell of good rain over northwest India towards the end of the coming week.

Met officials have predicted rain and thundershowers over many places in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, northeast states, west coast, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and west Himalayan region for the next two days and at a few places over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west UP, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and west MP.

The Times of India, 14 July, 2012, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Break-in-monsoon-likely-in-next-few-days/articleshow/14874392.cms


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