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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Budget 2019 Sorely Lacks a Coherent Vision for Long-Term Growth -MK Venu

Budget 2019 Sorely Lacks a Coherent Vision for Long-Term Growth -MK Venu

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published Published on Jul 6, 2019   modified Modified on Jul 6, 2019
-TheWire.in

While Nirmala Sitharaman's maiden budget hit all the right political notes, its fiscal math is far fuzzier.


The first budget of the Narendra Modi government 2.0 is very high on political rhetoric around empowering the poorest in ‘New India’, but does not have a clear road map of how a fully-funded welfare state will be sustained without a robust revival in growth, based on the twin engines of investment and consumption firing simultaneously.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has made all the right noises, reflecting Modi’s pet themes of last mile welfare delivery, but there was no cohesive strategy on how growth will revive amidst a softening global economy and India’s own manufacturing and agriculture output trending downward for some time.

The budgeted revenue math is so shaky that for the first time the finance ministry has chosen to factor in receipts of Rs 90,000 crore from the RBI’s balance sheet as “surpluses”. That this is being done even before the Bimal Jalan committee has made public its recommendations shows there is a desperation to raise funds to meet the massive physical and social infrastructure needs which may help boost employment.

Another potentially risky strategy being envisaged by the government for the first time is to raise sovereign debt via dollar denominated bonds to fund the needs of infrastructure. The finance minister’s justification for partially dollar-ising India’s fiscal deficit is that the country’s total external borrowings are below the safe limit of 5% of GDP. Normally, sovereign borrowing by nations is for big amounts, in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion. Governments in the past have considered the idea but eventually dropped it because the dollar debt has to be repaid in hard currency and carries immense exchange risk.

In any case, raising such money has other imponderables as it would create a benchmark for India vis a vis other countries like China in the global markets.

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TheWire.in, 5 July, 2019, https://thewire.in/economy/budget-2019-lacks-a-coherent-vision-for-long-term-growth


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