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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Budget again reveals structural fiscal constraint -Rathin Roy

Budget again reveals structural fiscal constraint -Rathin Roy

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published Published on Feb 6, 2020   modified Modified on Feb 6, 2020
-Business Standard/ NIPFP

Strap: It recognises that the medium-term fiscal arithmetic does not afford space for expansionary fiscal policy
 
In my column on the FY20 Budget (A silent fiscal crisis, July 5, 2019), I had warned that the government faced a structural fiscal constraint that was concealed by using incorrectly optimistic numbers for revenue receipts. This year’s Budget is transparent. But the government continues to be heavily fiscally constrained due to inadequate revenue receipts. A large part of the incremental fiscal deficit is because of this constraint.
 
In FY 20, gross tax revenue receipts are Rs 3 trillion lower than projected in the budget estimates. Half of this is because of a shortfall in corporate taxes, which is more than the number projected when tax rate cuts were announced. The other half is due to a fall in indirect taxes of Rs. 1.32 trillion. Collectively, this means that the shortfall in gross tax revenues in FY20 is 1.46 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). The shortfall in net tax revenue to the Centre is 0.7 per cent of GDP and 0.75 per cent of GDP for the states. This reflects the disproportionate impact of a tax shortfall on states caused by the high share of cesses (which were not, for example, affected by the tax rate cuts). So the fiscal stress is now impacting the states, a fact that the Fifteenth Finance Commission’s interim report seems to have conveniently ignored.

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Business Standard/ NIPFP, 2 February, 2020, https://www.nipfp.org.in/blog/2020/02/02/budget-again-reveals-structural-fiscal-constraint/


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