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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Bumpy road ahead -Renu Kohli

Bumpy road ahead -Renu Kohli

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published Published on Oct 19, 2021   modified Modified on Oct 19, 2021

-The Telegraph

Challenges to economic recovery in India and the world remain

The International Monetary Fund revealed its outlook for the world economy last week. A year and a half after the pandemic, global recovery remained reassuringly strong: the world economy is expected to grow a tad slower (10 basis points) this year at 5.9 per cent and at an unchanged pace — 4.9 per cent — next year. But the exit from the pandemic, cautions the IMF, is not unqualified. There are significant concerns, including strong inflationary pressures, raised unemployment, and more uncertainty than seen before. The recovery is also divergent because the initial differences due to vaccine access and quick, generous policy support have accentuated the divide between the high-income economies and the emerging, developing ones. In the forthcoming years, lasting injuries to the latter group are seen to be severest for Asian economies, barring China. The global picture is, thus, both encouraging and sobering; principally because all risks bear down than upwards as well as significant economic scarring from the pandemic.

For India, the IMF retained its 9.5 per cent real GDP growth forecast for the current year, followed by 8.5 per cent growth in 2022-23. This is similar to that projected by the Reserve Bank of India, which reviewed its monetary policy a week before the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook. The outlook on inflation is directionally similar too. While the central bank sharply lowered its annual inflation forecast to 5.3 per cent from 5.7 per cent in August, the IMF sees it declining to 5.6 per cent followed by 4.9 per cent next year.

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The Telegraph, 19 October, 2021, https://www.telegraphindia.com/opinion/challenges-to-economic-recovery-in-india-and-the-world-remain/cid/1834999


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