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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Centre braces for sub-normal rains -Vishwa Mohan & Rajeev Deshpande

Centre braces for sub-normal rains -Vishwa Mohan & Rajeev Deshpande

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published Published on Jun 10, 2014   modified Modified on Jun 10, 2014
-The Times of India
 

NEW DELHI: The Narendra Modi government officially acknowledged that it is gearing for its first big test with the Met downgrading its monsoon forecast from 95% to a likely 93% of the long period average rainfall.

"The government is alert about the possibility of a subnormal monsoon this year and contingency plans are being prepared," President Pranab Mukherjee said in his address to Parliament on Monday.

The official word came as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said moderate El Nino conditions expected to develop in the tropical Pacific in the summer months would impact the monsoon.

While the agriculture ministry said it was ready to deal with crop, fodder and water shortages, the forecast will make the government's bid to improve growth and contain inflation, particularly in food, more challenging.

The high 70% probability of El Nino occurring during the monsoon (reported by TOI on June 9) and warmer than normal conditions have resulted in IMD revising its April 95% LPA forecast to 93%.

The regional variations are more worrying. The food grain basket of the northwest is likely to receive the least rains at 85% of LPA, while the forecast is 94% and 93% in central and south India.

Only the northeast might escape the backlash of El Nino, with the region expected to receive 99% of the LPA rainfall.

"Quantitatively, the season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of LPA with an error of plus-minus 4," the IMD said in an official release.

There is a 33% probability of less than 90% of LPA rainfall and a 38% probability of 90-96% of LPA while the probability of a normal monsoon is just 26%.

The confirmation has served to strengthen the apprehension that the Modi government may soon be put to test if the monsoon underperforms and crop failures and droughts result.

Adding to the problem would be the possibility of floods in the northeast if the near normal predictions for the region hold true.

Agriculture ministry indicated that it was viewing the situation with due seriousness and said storage positions in major reservoirs was satisfactory and a buffer of 100 lakh tonnes of rice and 170 lakh tonnes of wheat was available

The total stock stood at 206 lakh tonnes of rice and 415 lakh tonnes of wheat while crop contingency plans are in place for 500 of about 540 agricultural districts.

Availability of seeds, delayed sowing, keeping aside 10% of funds under the national agriculture development scheme, construction of water harvesting structures and repairing tube wells is being planned.

The government is also ready to reschedule crop loans and provide interest subvention and allocate additional budget for accelerated fodder development.

 


The Times of India, 10 June, 2014, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Centre-braces-for-sub-normal-rains/articleshow/36316949.cms


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