Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Changing rainfall patterns cause for worry in India -Nidhi Jamwal    </title>
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-India Climate Dialogue

The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.

Since June 13, there has been a hiatus..."/>
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-India Climate Dialogue

The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.

Since June 13, there has been a hiatus..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-India Climate Dialogue<br /><br /><em>The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.<br /></em><br />Since June 13, there has been a hiatus in the advance of southwest monsoon in the country due to the weakening of its circulation pattern. This dry spell is expected to soon change as the monsoon is likely to advance further over Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat by June 25, as stated in the recent weather status and outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But, the dry spell is already a matter of concern.<br /><br />As per the Hydromet Division of the IMD, between June 1 and June 22 this year, several meteorological sub-divisions in the northwest, northeast and east India have reported deficient (minus 59% to minus 20%) and large deficient rainfall (minus 99% to minus 60%).<br /><br />For instance, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan have reported a rainfall departure of minus 63%, minus 43%, minus 52% and minus 54%, respectively. Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, too, have had minus 38%, minus 49% and minus 31% deficient rainfall, respectively.<br /><br />The situation is grim in the meteorological sub-divisions of Saurashtra and Kutch, and Gujarat region, which have reported rainfall departure of minus 97% and minus 91%, respectively.<br /><br />Overall, as of June 22, only 10 states and union territories (UTs) have reported normal rainfall (minus 19% to plus 19%) in the country. Eleven have reported deficient rainfall and three are in the category of large deficient. Meanwhile, eight states and UTs had excess (20% to 59%) and three had large excess rainfall (60% or more), respectively.<br /><br />Whereas the southwest monsoon is expected to pick pace now and eventually cover the entire country with some delays, an IMD study, titled Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India, published in July 2017 issue of MAUSAM, a quarterly research journal of the Met department, has found that the annual rainfall in the country is showing a significant increasing trend in 10% of the districts, whereas 13% of the districts show a significant decreasing trend.<br /><br /><em>Long-term trend analysis<br /></em><br />Three scientists of the IMD &mdash; Surinder Kaur, Sumant Kumar Diwakar and Ashok Kumar Das &mdash; have studied long-term trend of annual and seasonal rainfall over different districts and meteorological sub-divisions of the country between 1901 and 2013. They have also carried out annual rainfall trend analysis between 1961 and 2013. A total of 632 districts and 34 meteorological sub-divisions were included in their study and daily rainfall records from 6,995 rain gauge stations across the country were collected. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep were excluded from the study.<br /><br />Based on the rainfall analysis, the researchers found that between 1961 and 2013, 64 districts (10.1%) show an increasing trend of annual rainfall, whereas 85 districts (13.4%) show a decreasing trend. Uttar Pradesh (UP) has maximum number of districts (32) showing a decreasing annual rainfall trend. These districts include Agra, Aligarh, Etawah, Firozabad, Gorakhpur, Kanpur, Mathura, Unnao, etc.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Odisha has a maximum of 12 districts showing an increasing trend, such as Cuttack, Kalahandi, Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Puri, etc. Area wise, 97,663.9 sq. km area in Uttar Pradesh has a declining trend in annual rainfall, whereas 68,846.9 sq. km area in Odisha has an increasing trend.<br /><br />Based on trend analysis of annual rainfall, &ldquo;&hellip;the sub-divisions of West UP, East UP and Arunachal Pradesh are showing significantly negative trend in rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Odisha, Coastal AP (Andhra Pradesh) and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;, reads the 2017 study.<br /><br />Overall, at national level, 10.3% area in the country (except Leh and Ladakh district, Andaman &amp; Nicobar and Lakshadweep) has reported an increasing trend in annual rainfall between 1961 and 2013; and 8.03% area has reported a decreasing trend in annual rainfall during the same time period.<br /><br />Apart from the annual rainfall trend, the IMD scientists have also studied monsoon rainfall between 1961 and 2013. And, the analysis shows: &ldquo;The sub-divisions of West UP and East UP are showing significantly negative trend in monsoon rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Odisha, S.I. (south interior) Karnataka and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend in monsoon rainfall at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;.<br /><br />Also, no district is showing an increasing trend in rainfall in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Puducherry in both the periods. The IMD study also warns of &ldquo;high variability in rainfall in the recent decades&rdquo;.<br /><br /><em>Concerns and impacts<br /></em><br />The changing rainfall pattern in India is a huge concern as the country&rsquo;s water and food security is at a risk. According to a 2017 document of the Indian government&rsquo;s think tank NITI Aayog, Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India, India is already water stressed. Almost 52% of its cropped area remains without irrigation and some areas are chronically water stressed.<br /><br />The share of canal in net irrigated area has declined from 39.8% to 23.6%, whereas groundwater sources has increased from 28.7% to 62.4% between 1950-51 and 2012-13. Because of lack of irrigation, a large number of farmers depended on monsoon rainfall to practice agriculture. For instance, as per the NITI Aayog document, of the total pulses, oilseeds and cotton produced in the country, 80% pulses, 73% oilseeds and 68% cotton come from rain-fed agriculture.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" title="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/">click here</a> to read more. <br /><br /><br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" class="re" target="_blank">India Climate Dialogue, 25 June, 2018, http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Changing rainfall patterns cause for worry in India -Nidhi Jamwal</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-India Climate Dialogue<br /><br /><em>The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.<br /></em><br />Since June 13, there has been a hiatus in the advance of southwest monsoon in the country due to the weakening of its circulation pattern. This dry spell is expected to soon change as the monsoon is likely to advance further over Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat by June 25, as stated in the recent weather status and outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But, the dry spell is already a matter of concern.<br /><br />As per the Hydromet Division of the IMD, between June 1 and June 22 this year, several meteorological sub-divisions in the northwest, northeast and east India have reported deficient (minus 59% to minus 20%) and large deficient rainfall (minus 99% to minus 60%).<br /><br />For instance, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan have reported a rainfall departure of minus 63%, minus 43%, minus 52% and minus 54%, respectively. Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, too, have had minus 38%, minus 49% and minus 31% deficient rainfall, respectively.<br /><br />The situation is grim in the meteorological sub-divisions of Saurashtra and Kutch, and Gujarat region, which have reported rainfall departure of minus 97% and minus 91%, respectively.<br /><br />Overall, as of June 22, only 10 states and union territories (UTs) have reported normal rainfall (minus 19% to plus 19%) in the country. Eleven have reported deficient rainfall and three are in the category of large deficient. Meanwhile, eight states and UTs had excess (20% to 59%) and three had large excess rainfall (60% or more), respectively.<br /><br />Whereas the southwest monsoon is expected to pick pace now and eventually cover the entire country with some delays, an IMD study, titled Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India, published in July 2017 issue of MAUSAM, a quarterly research journal of the Met department, has found that the annual rainfall in the country is showing a significant increasing trend in 10% of the districts, whereas 13% of the districts show a significant decreasing trend.<br /><br /><em>Long-term trend analysis<br /></em><br />Three scientists of the IMD &mdash; Surinder Kaur, Sumant Kumar Diwakar and Ashok Kumar Das &mdash; have studied long-term trend of annual and seasonal rainfall over different districts and meteorological sub-divisions of the country between 1901 and 2013. They have also carried out annual rainfall trend analysis between 1961 and 2013. A total of 632 districts and 34 meteorological sub-divisions were included in their study and daily rainfall records from 6,995 rain gauge stations across the country were collected. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep were excluded from the study.<br /><br />Based on the rainfall analysis, the researchers found that between 1961 and 2013, 64 districts (10.1%) show an increasing trend of annual rainfall, whereas 85 districts (13.4%) show a decreasing trend. Uttar Pradesh (UP) has maximum number of districts (32) showing a decreasing annual rainfall trend. These districts include Agra, Aligarh, Etawah, Firozabad, Gorakhpur, Kanpur, Mathura, Unnao, etc.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Odisha has a maximum of 12 districts showing an increasing trend, such as Cuttack, Kalahandi, Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Puri, etc. Area wise, 97,663.9 sq. km area in Uttar Pradesh has a declining trend in annual rainfall, whereas 68,846.9 sq. km area in Odisha has an increasing trend.<br /><br />Based on trend analysis of annual rainfall, &ldquo;&hellip;the sub-divisions of West UP, East UP and Arunachal Pradesh are showing significantly negative trend in rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Odisha, Coastal AP (Andhra Pradesh) and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;, reads the 2017 study.<br /><br />Overall, at national level, 10.3% area in the country (except Leh and Ladakh district, Andaman &amp; Nicobar and Lakshadweep) has reported an increasing trend in annual rainfall between 1961 and 2013; and 8.03% area has reported a decreasing trend in annual rainfall during the same time period.<br /><br />Apart from the annual rainfall trend, the IMD scientists have also studied monsoon rainfall between 1961 and 2013. And, the analysis shows: &ldquo;The sub-divisions of West UP and East UP are showing significantly negative trend in monsoon rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Odisha, S.I. (south interior) Karnataka and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend in monsoon rainfall at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;.<br /><br />Also, no district is showing an increasing trend in rainfall in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Puducherry in both the periods. The IMD study also warns of &ldquo;high variability in rainfall in the recent decades&rdquo;.<br /><br /><em>Concerns and impacts<br /></em><br />The changing rainfall pattern in India is a huge concern as the country&rsquo;s water and food security is at a risk. According to a 2017 document of the Indian government&rsquo;s think tank NITI Aayog, Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India, India is already water stressed. Almost 52% of its cropped area remains without irrigation and some areas are chronically water stressed.<br /><br />The share of canal in net irrigated area has declined from 39.8% to 23.6%, whereas groundwater sources has increased from 28.7% to 62.4% between 1950-51 and 2012-13. Because of lack of irrigation, a large number of farmers depended on monsoon rainfall to practice agriculture. For instance, as per the NITI Aayog document, of the total pulses, oilseeds and cotton produced in the country, 80% pulses, 73% oilseeds and 68% cotton come from rain-fed agriculture.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" title="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/">click here</a> to read more. <br /><br /><br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" class="re" target="_blank">India Climate Dialogue, 25 June, 2018, http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Changing rainfall patterns cause for worry in India -Nidhi Jamwal    </title>
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-India Climate Dialogue

The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.

Since June 13, there has been a hiatus..."/>
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-India Climate Dialogue

The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.

Since June 13, there has been a hiatus..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Changing rainfall patterns cause for worry in India -Nidhi Jamwal</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-India Climate Dialogue<br /><br /><em>The meteorological department&rsquo;s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India&rsquo;s food security scenario.<br /></em><br />Since June 13, there has been a hiatus in the advance of southwest monsoon in the country due to the weakening of its circulation pattern. This dry spell is expected to soon change as the monsoon is likely to advance further over Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat by June 25, as stated in the recent weather status and outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But, the dry spell is already a matter of concern.<br /><br />As per the Hydromet Division of the IMD, between June 1 and June 22 this year, several meteorological sub-divisions in the northwest, northeast and east India have reported deficient (minus 59% to minus 20%) and large deficient rainfall (minus 99% to minus 60%).<br /><br />For instance, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan have reported a rainfall departure of minus 63%, minus 43%, minus 52% and minus 54%, respectively. Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, too, have had minus 38%, minus 49% and minus 31% deficient rainfall, respectively.<br /><br />The situation is grim in the meteorological sub-divisions of Saurashtra and Kutch, and Gujarat region, which have reported rainfall departure of minus 97% and minus 91%, respectively.<br /><br />Overall, as of June 22, only 10 states and union territories (UTs) have reported normal rainfall (minus 19% to plus 19%) in the country. Eleven have reported deficient rainfall and three are in the category of large deficient. Meanwhile, eight states and UTs had excess (20% to 59%) and three had large excess rainfall (60% or more), respectively.<br /><br />Whereas the southwest monsoon is expected to pick pace now and eventually cover the entire country with some delays, an IMD study, titled Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India, published in July 2017 issue of MAUSAM, a quarterly research journal of the Met department, has found that the annual rainfall in the country is showing a significant increasing trend in 10% of the districts, whereas 13% of the districts show a significant decreasing trend.<br /><br /><em>Long-term trend analysis<br /></em><br />Three scientists of the IMD &mdash; Surinder Kaur, Sumant Kumar Diwakar and Ashok Kumar Das &mdash; have studied long-term trend of annual and seasonal rainfall over different districts and meteorological sub-divisions of the country between 1901 and 2013. They have also carried out annual rainfall trend analysis between 1961 and 2013. A total of 632 districts and 34 meteorological sub-divisions were included in their study and daily rainfall records from 6,995 rain gauge stations across the country were collected. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep were excluded from the study.<br /><br />Based on the rainfall analysis, the researchers found that between 1961 and 2013, 64 districts (10.1%) show an increasing trend of annual rainfall, whereas 85 districts (13.4%) show a decreasing trend. Uttar Pradesh (UP) has maximum number of districts (32) showing a decreasing annual rainfall trend. These districts include Agra, Aligarh, Etawah, Firozabad, Gorakhpur, Kanpur, Mathura, Unnao, etc.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Odisha has a maximum of 12 districts showing an increasing trend, such as Cuttack, Kalahandi, Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Puri, etc. Area wise, 97,663.9 sq. km area in Uttar Pradesh has a declining trend in annual rainfall, whereas 68,846.9 sq. km area in Odisha has an increasing trend.<br /><br />Based on trend analysis of annual rainfall, &ldquo;&hellip;the sub-divisions of West UP, East UP and Arunachal Pradesh are showing significantly negative trend in rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Odisha, Coastal AP (Andhra Pradesh) and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;, reads the 2017 study.<br /><br />Overall, at national level, 10.3% area in the country (except Leh and Ladakh district, Andaman &amp; Nicobar and Lakshadweep) has reported an increasing trend in annual rainfall between 1961 and 2013; and 8.03% area has reported a decreasing trend in annual rainfall during the same time period.<br /><br />Apart from the annual rainfall trend, the IMD scientists have also studied monsoon rainfall between 1961 and 2013. And, the analysis shows: &ldquo;The sub-divisions of West UP and East UP are showing significantly negative trend in monsoon rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Odisha, S.I. (south interior) Karnataka and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend in monsoon rainfall at 95% (confidence level)&rdquo;.<br /><br />Also, no district is showing an increasing trend in rainfall in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Puducherry in both the periods. The IMD study also warns of &ldquo;high variability in rainfall in the recent decades&rdquo;.<br /><br /><em>Concerns and impacts<br /></em><br />The changing rainfall pattern in India is a huge concern as the country&rsquo;s water and food security is at a risk. According to a 2017 document of the Indian government&rsquo;s think tank NITI Aayog, Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India, India is already water stressed. Almost 52% of its cropped area remains without irrigation and some areas are chronically water stressed.<br /><br />The share of canal in net irrigated area has declined from 39.8% to 23.6%, whereas groundwater sources has increased from 28.7% to 62.4% between 1950-51 and 2012-13. Because of lack of irrigation, a large number of farmers depended on monsoon rainfall to practice agriculture. For instance, as per the NITI Aayog document, of the total pulses, oilseeds and cotton produced in the country, 80% pulses, 73% oilseeds and 68% cotton come from rain-fed agriculture.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" title="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/">click here</a> to read more. <br /><br /><br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/" class="re" target="_blank">India Climate Dialogue, 25 June, 2018, http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

Changing rainfall patterns cause for worry in India -Nidhi Jamwal

Published on Jun 29, 2018   Modified on Jun 29, 2018

-India Climate Dialogue The meteorological department’s analysis of annual rainfall for the past 50 years has found significant increasing or decreasing trends in districts that could put a spanner into India’s food security scenario. Since June 13, there has been a hiatus in the advance of southwest monsoon in the country due to the weakening of its circulation pattern. This dry spell is expected to soon change as the monsoon is likely to advance further over Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat by June 25, as stated in the recent weather status and outlook of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But, the dry spell is already a matter of concern. As per the Hydromet Division of the IMD, between June 1 and June 22 this year, several meteorological sub-divisions in the northwest, northeast and east India have reported deficient (minus 59% to minus 20%) and large deficient rainfall (minus 99% to minus 60%). For instance, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan have reported a rainfall departure of minus 63%, minus 43%, minus 52% and minus 54%, respectively. Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, too, have had minus 38%, minus 49% and minus 31% deficient rainfall, respectively. The situation is grim in the meteorological sub-divisions of Saurashtra and Kutch, and Gujarat region, which have reported rainfall departure of minus 97% and minus 91%, respectively. Overall, as of June 22, only 10 states and union territories (UTs) have reported normal rainfall (minus 19% to plus 19%) in the country. Eleven have reported deficient rainfall and three are in the category of large deficient. Meanwhile, eight states and UTs had excess (20% to 59%) and three had large excess rainfall (60% or more), respectively. Whereas the southwest monsoon is expected to pick pace now and eventually cover the entire country with some delays, an IMD study, titled Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India, published in July 2017 issue of MAUSAM, a quarterly research journal of the Met department, has found that the annual rainfall in the country is showing a significant increasing trend in 10% of the districts, whereas 13% of the districts show a significant decreasing trend. Long-term trend analysis Three scientists of the IMD — Surinder Kaur, Sumant Kumar Diwakar and Ashok Kumar Das — have studied long-term trend of annual and seasonal rainfall over different districts and meteorological sub-divisions of the country between 1901 and 2013. They have also carried out annual rainfall trend analysis between 1961 and 2013. A total of 632 districts and 34 meteorological sub-divisions were included in their study and daily rainfall records from 6,995 rain gauge stations across the country were collected. Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep were excluded from the study. Based on the rainfall analysis, the researchers found that between 1961 and 2013, 64 districts (10.1%) show an increasing trend of annual rainfall, whereas 85 districts (13.4%) show a decreasing trend. Uttar Pradesh (UP) has maximum number of districts (32) showing a decreasing annual rainfall trend. These districts include Agra, Aligarh, Etawah, Firozabad, Gorakhpur, Kanpur, Mathura, Unnao, etc. Meanwhile, Odisha has a maximum of 12 districts showing an increasing trend, such as Cuttack, Kalahandi, Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Puri, etc. Area wise, 97,663.9 sq. km area in Uttar Pradesh has a declining trend in annual rainfall, whereas 68,846.9 sq. km area in Odisha has an increasing trend. Based on trend analysis of annual rainfall, “…the sub-divisions of West UP, East UP and Arunachal Pradesh are showing significantly negative trend in rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Odisha, Coastal AP (Andhra Pradesh) and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend at 95% (confidence level)”, reads the 2017 study. Overall, at national level, 10.3% area in the country (except Leh and Ladakh district, Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep) has reported an increasing trend in annual rainfall between 1961 and 2013; and 8.03% area has reported a decreasing trend in annual rainfall during the same time period. Apart from the annual rainfall trend, the IMD scientists have also studied monsoon rainfall between 1961 and 2013. And, the analysis shows: “The sub-divisions of West UP and East UP are showing significantly negative trend in monsoon rainfall whereas the sub-divisions Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha, S.I. (south interior) Karnataka and Konkan and Goa are showing significantly positive trend in monsoon rainfall at 95% (confidence level)”. Also, no district is showing an increasing trend in rainfall in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and Puducherry in both the periods. The IMD study also warns of “high variability in rainfall in the recent decades”. Concerns and impacts The changing rainfall pattern in India is a huge concern as the country’s water and food security is at a risk. According to a 2017 document of the Indian government’s think tank NITI Aayog, Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India, India is already water stressed. Almost 52% of its cropped area remains without irrigation and some areas are chronically water stressed. The share of canal in net irrigated area has declined from 39.8% to 23.6%, whereas groundwater sources has increased from 28.7% to 62.4% between 1950-51 and 2012-13. Because of lack of irrigation, a large number of farmers depended on monsoon rainfall to practice agriculture. For instance, as per the NITI Aayog document, of the total pulses, oilseeds and cotton produced in the country, 80% pulses, 73% oilseeds and 68% cotton come from rain-fed agriculture. Please click here to read more.

India Climate Dialogue, 25 June, 2018, http://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/25/changing-rainfall-patterns-cause-for-worry-in-india/

Tagged with: south west monsoon India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall farming Food Security

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