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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Chhattisgarh’s excess deaths at least 4.8 times COVID-19 toll -Srinivasan Ramani and Vignesh Radhakrishnan

Chhattisgarh’s excess deaths at least 4.8 times COVID-19 toll -Srinivasan Ramani and Vignesh Radhakrishnan

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published Published on May 30, 2021   modified Modified on Jul 2, 2021

-The Hindu

Second wave figures are from April to May 2021.

The number of “excess deaths” registered by the Civil Registration System (CRS) in Chhattisgarh during the second wave (April to May 2021) was 43,062, which is 4.85 times the official reported figure of 8,878 COVID-19 deaths for the same period.

If the first three months of 2021 are included, the undercount factor decreases to 3.6 times (34,897 excess deaths and 9,677 official fatalities). Excess deaths were calculated based on the month-wise number of fatalities registered in the State’s online CRS (provisional figures), which The Hindu accessed. The 43,062 “excess deaths” during the second wave were calculated as the difference between 71,142 deaths registered online in April and May 2021 and the average number of deaths in the same period in the pre-pandemic years between 2015 and 2019 (28,080).

The month-wise figures between 2015 and 2019 were sourced from the CRS’ annual reports.

If instead of averages, a year-by-year growth rate of deaths is considered, the State’s 71,142 registered deaths in April-May 2021 were 2.2 times higher than the estimated 31,842 deaths. In this approach, the undercount factor slightly comes down from 4.85 to 4.4. However, estimating the undercount using the averages method would suit Chhattisgarh as the growth in deaths over years is not consistent.

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The Hindu, 30 June, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/chhattisgarhs-excess-deaths-at-least-48-times-covid-19-toll/article35067172.ece


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