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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Climate change dialogue at Durban keenly poised by Arvind Gupta

Climate change dialogue at Durban keenly poised by Arvind Gupta

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published Published on Nov 28, 2011   modified Modified on Nov 28, 2011

The 17th Conference of Parties (COP) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) is being held in Durban, South Africa, from November 28 to December 9, 2011.
 
Urgent action is required to arrest the inexorable rise in global CO2 emissions. What are the issues before this important international meeting on Climate Change?
 
The last meeting of the COP was held in Cancun, Mexico, in December 2010. The 17th COP will naturally take stock of the progress in the decisions taken at the Cancun meeting and will come up with the new decisions.
 
The 17th COP will also simultaneously hold the 7th meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP), the key international agreement on Climate Change. Under the Kyoto Protocol (KP), the industrialised developed countries referred to as Annexe-I countries, had taken binding emission reduction commitments. The first commitment period runs out by the end of December 2012.
 
There is as yet no agreement on fresh emission reduction commitments after 2012.
 
Emission reduction commitments are highly contentious. The developed countries have been insisting that major developing countries like India and China should also undertake binding emission reduction targets in the second commitment Period of KP. This has been strongly resisted by these countries. It needs to be seen whether an agreement over next set of commitments is reached at Durban.
 
Climate change discussions of recent years are based on previous agreements notably the Bali Action Plan (2009) and the Copenhagen Accord (2009). The Bali Action Plan rested on four pillars of mitigation, adaptation, financial support and technology transfer. The developing countries were supposed to get sufficient funding, technology and capacity building assistance for adaptation purposes. None of this has happened so far.
 
Copenhagen Accord, which was a last-minute, last-ditch attempt to save climate change negotiations at that time, was a controversial accord. It came about as a result of President Barack Obama’s agreement with the leaders of Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC). The EU resented having been kept out. Many developing countries were also unhappy.
 
The Accord urged the developed countries to mobilise jointly $100 billion a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. The assistance was to be provided through Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. Such a fund has not been operationalised as yet.
 
At Cancun (2010), the parties agreed to create new institutions for ensuring that the global mean temperature does not exceed the crucial 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. New institutions include a Green Technology Fund, a Technology Mechanism for sharing and transfer of green technologies to developing countries, an Adaptation Framework for developing countries and the creation of a registry for voluntary action plans of developing countries. The details of these mechanisms are yet to be worked out. Durban will take stock of the progress made so far.
 
Hardly any developed country has met the binding targets accepted under the Kyoto Protocol. In many cases, the emissions have increased instead of having been reduced. The Kyoto target for the United States of America was a reduction of 7 per cent from the 1990 emission base line whereas it registered a 6.7 per cent increase in emissions according to the IEA 2011 report. Countries in Asia Oceania, namely, Australia, New Zealand and Japan have registered considerable jump in emissions of 51.8 per cent, 34.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively over 1990-2009 period instead of increasing by 8 per cent maintaining a 0 per cent increase and a reduction of 6 per cent, respectively.
 
At the negotiations, the developed countries and developing countries are following different approaches. Even among developing countries there is patent lack of unity.
 
Developing countries also have concern over issues of restricted access to green technologies due to IPR restrictions. An adaptation framework, agreed at Cancun, to help developing countries adapt to climate change has yet to be agreed upon. Developing countries also fear that developed countries may resort to unilateral measures against developing countries on climate change grounds.
 
India’s position
 
India steadfastly holds to adherence by developed countries to principles of “equity” and “historical” but differentiated responsibility enshrined in UNFCC convention. However, there is as yet no common understanding of what those concepts imply.
 
At Durban, India is expected to argue that climate change technologies be declared as public good “in the interest of the global goal of early stabilisation of climate and advancing developing country efforts aimed at social and economic development and poverty eradication.”
 
India is also wary that the goal of early stabilisation of emissions agreed upon at Cancun may compromise the overriding priority of developing countries to achieve sustainable development and eradication of poverty. India will also oppose unilateral trade measures by developed countries to pressurise developing countries to fall in line.
 
India is not alone in its crusade. BASIC countries have been meeting regularly and have developed a common approach to climate change negotiations. BASIC countries, given their emissions clout, will be a major force at Durban.
 
India’s record of voluntary action is laudable. Its National Action Plan on Climate Change consisting of complements such as energy efficiency, solar power, afforestation, R&D and climate change research is impressive. India’s minister for environment declared publicly at Cancun that India will voluntarily reduce its emissions by 20 per cent by 2020. However, India will resist undertaking unilateral targets.
 
What are the chances of success at Durban? Climate Change negotiations are extremely complex. Every country is fighting tooth and nail to protect its national interests. Developed countries’ pressure on developing countries will continue but they will not have an easy way. In this environment, one can only hope for the best without being very optimistic.
 
Dr Arvind Gupta is associated with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

The Asian Age, 29 November, 2011, http://www.asianage.com/ideas/climate-change-dialogue-durban-keenly-poised-048


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