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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Database limited, more complete information by next year: Chief Statistician TCA Anant -Aanchal Magazine & Anil Sasi

Database limited, more complete information by next year: Chief Statistician TCA Anant -Aanchal Magazine & Anil Sasi

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published Published on Mar 3, 2017   modified Modified on Mar 3, 2017
-The Indian Express

On the credibility of quarterly data releases, Anant underlined “it is a careful statistical exercise” and that in many areas, “more complete information would be available in many ways by next year”.

Facing criticism that GDP growth estimates by his office of 7 per cent for the third quarter ending December 2016 sharply overshot most projections — even those in the Economic Survey and by the RBI — India’s Chief Statistician T C A Anant on Thursday said that quarterly data indicators used currently for GDP estimation are “limited” in nature.

And that although they lack the degree of granularity that may ideally be warranted, “it is as good as you can do given the amount of information which is available with the frequency with which it is available”.

More complete information for the third quarter of the current fiscal, the period when the demonetisation exercise was rolled out, should be available by next year, he added.

On the credibility of the quarterly data releases, Anant underlined that “it is a careful statistical exercise” and that in many areas, “more complete information would be available in many ways by next year”.

“For example, on capital formation, I will get more complete information when complete accounts are available. At the moment, we are assessing it from a limited set of indicators which are there… So, certainly as more data becomes available, assessments will improve and that is why we have a system of revision. But I can only improve for which data is available,” he told The Indian Express.

The GDP growth estimates of 7 per cent for the third quarter surprised many given data showing impact of demonetisation on credit growth, automobile sales and real estate activity.

On the current practice of using proxies such as tax for trade, cement and steel for consumption, and whether it sufficiently captured the impact of a disruptive move such as demonetisation, Anant asserted that the logic of indicators such as sales of cement and steel going up is that they must have been used somewhere.

“I am unfortunately constrained to use publicly observable data,” he said.

In terms of getting more representative data, he said there is always scope for that. “At this point I can say that we are using all the data which is with us currently. But we are always open to looking at more data whenever it becomes available,” he said.

The problem with the data, he said, stems from what essentially defines India’s informal sector. “The informal sector is, in national accounts parlance, where regular accounts are not maintained. The reasonable way of defining is that it has close correspondence to other ways of thinking what the informal sector is. For example, small manufacturers, retail trade who do not maintain regular accounts will fall into the informal sector. One consequence of not maintaining regular accounts is that there is no database of accounts to tap in. If regular accounts would have been maintained, a methodology of capturing accounts-based information would be there,” he said.

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The Indian Express, 3 March, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/database-limited-more-complete-information-by-next-year-chief-statistician-tca-anant-4551814/


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