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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Decoding the close Bihar verdict -Shreyas Sardesai, Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar and Suhas Palshikar

Decoding the close Bihar verdict -Shreyas Sardesai, Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar and Suhas Palshikar

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published Published on Nov 12, 2020   modified Modified on Nov 12, 2020

-The Indian Express

Bihar Assembly election results 2020: Held against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Bihar contest was also one of the closest in recent times. In this post-poll survey, Lokniti-CSDS unpacks the many aspects of NDA’s narrow victory over the Mahagathbandhan — caste & community, confidence in Modi, and women voting more for NDA.

As the counting of votes in Bihar continued through the day on Tuesday, the close nature of the battle became increasingly obvious. The fact that the NDA managed a narrow victory became the clear headline. Yet, the verdict of the Bihar voter has multiple small stories that add up to the big picture. In this article, we hope to unpack these multiple strands.

Nitish Kumar was able to overcome the inevitable fatigue of being in power for a decade. This was partly on account of the Mahagatbandhan (MGB) not being seen as a viable option, and partly due to the positive sentiment associated with the performance of the central government. The caste calculus continued to offer important insights while the youth vote got divided on gender lines.

The Lokniti-CSDS Post poll, on which this analysis is based, got the vote shares of the two major alliances reasonably close. We projected a vote share of 39% for the MGB and 36% for the NDA with an error margin of +/-3%. Eventually, the NDA got 37.3% and the MGB 37.2%. All numbers reported here have been weighted by the final outcome.

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The Indian Express, 12 November, 2020, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/decoding-the-close-bihar-election-verdict-7048328/


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