Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Decoding the CSO&#039;s backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats    </title>
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-The Hindu Business Line

&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;

New Delhi: &ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the..."/>
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-The Hindu Business Line

&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;

New Delhi: &ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>&ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,&rdquo; said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India.<br /><br />When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the 2011-12 GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates were lower than what the 2004-05 (previous base year) series had projected (estimated) for 2011-12, according to Anant.<br /><br />&ldquo;If you are bound to get a lower estimate in 2011-12, you are bound to get a lower growth rates for the period (2004 to 2011),&rdquo; Anant told BusinessLine while decoding the CSO&rsquo;s recent 2011-12 series backcasting exercise.<br /><br />Anant attributed the uniform fall in GDP growth rates from 2004 to 2011 partly to the statistical effect and partly to a fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s gross value added (GVA) due to changes in the methodology.<br /><br /><em>Reasons behind GVA fall<br /></em><br />Three broad factors contributed to the fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s GVA: UN&rsquo;s System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA); fall in the GVA of retail trade; and lowering of the GVA of the unorganised trade.<br /><br />While SNA only had a small role &mdash; measurement of financial services (treating the RBI as a non-market institution) &mdash; the most significant change, according to Anant, came in the GVA of retail trade wherein the CSO moved the indicator from the erstwhile Gross Trading Income (GTI) in 2004-05 base year to use of sales tax data for the latest backcasting. Anant felt that the boom in mining sector in mid-2000 may have boosted the GTI, leading to substantially higher gross value added for organised retail trade in those years.<br /><br />&ldquo;The implicit growth in retail trade (in 2011-12) is much lower than what national accounts had been projecting using the erstwhile GTI indicator and NSS benchmark of late nineties for 2004-05 base year. We had to bring down the growth rate of trade. The growth rate of retail trade has now been brought down in the latest backcasting through the changes in the benchmark and the change in the indicator to sales tax from GTI,&rdquo; Anant said.<br /><br />The improvement that is happening because of the changes in governance will improve the quality of the country&rsquo;s measure of national income, he said, adding this can lead to higher or lower growth rate, but the quality of measure would be better.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" title="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 3 December, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Decoding the CSO&#039;s backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>&ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,&rdquo; said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India.<br /><br />When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the 2011-12 GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates were lower than what the 2004-05 (previous base year) series had projected (estimated) for 2011-12, according to Anant.<br /><br />&ldquo;If you are bound to get a lower estimate in 2011-12, you are bound to get a lower growth rates for the period (2004 to 2011),&rdquo; Anant told BusinessLine while decoding the CSO&rsquo;s recent 2011-12 series backcasting exercise.<br /><br />Anant attributed the uniform fall in GDP growth rates from 2004 to 2011 partly to the statistical effect and partly to a fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s gross value added (GVA) due to changes in the methodology.<br /><br /><em>Reasons behind GVA fall<br /></em><br />Three broad factors contributed to the fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s GVA: UN&rsquo;s System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA); fall in the GVA of retail trade; and lowering of the GVA of the unorganised trade.<br /><br />While SNA only had a small role &mdash; measurement of financial services (treating the RBI as a non-market institution) &mdash; the most significant change, according to Anant, came in the GVA of retail trade wherein the CSO moved the indicator from the erstwhile Gross Trading Income (GTI) in 2004-05 base year to use of sales tax data for the latest backcasting. Anant felt that the boom in mining sector in mid-2000 may have boosted the GTI, leading to substantially higher gross value added for organised retail trade in those years.<br /><br />&ldquo;The implicit growth in retail trade (in 2011-12) is much lower than what national accounts had been projecting using the erstwhile GTI indicator and NSS benchmark of late nineties for 2004-05 base year. We had to bring down the growth rate of trade. The growth rate of retail trade has now been brought down in the latest backcasting through the changes in the benchmark and the change in the indicator to sales tax from GTI,&rdquo; Anant said.<br /><br />The improvement that is happening because of the changes in governance will improve the quality of the country&rsquo;s measure of national income, he said, adding this can lead to higher or lower growth rate, but the quality of measure would be better.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" title="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 3 December, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Decoding the CSO&#039;s backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats    </title>
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-The Hindu Business Line

&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;

New Delhi: &ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the..."/>
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-The Hindu Business Line

&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;

New Delhi: &ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Decoding the CSO&#039;s backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>&lsquo;GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down&rsquo;<br /><br />New Delhi: </em>&ldquo;You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India&rsquo;s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,&rdquo; said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India.<br /><br />When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the 2011-12 GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates were lower than what the 2004-05 (previous base year) series had projected (estimated) for 2011-12, according to Anant.<br /><br />&ldquo;If you are bound to get a lower estimate in 2011-12, you are bound to get a lower growth rates for the period (2004 to 2011),&rdquo; Anant told BusinessLine while decoding the CSO&rsquo;s recent 2011-12 series backcasting exercise.<br /><br />Anant attributed the uniform fall in GDP growth rates from 2004 to 2011 partly to the statistical effect and partly to a fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s gross value added (GVA) due to changes in the methodology.<br /><br /><em>Reasons behind GVA fall<br /></em><br />Three broad factors contributed to the fall in the tertiary sector&rsquo;s GVA: UN&rsquo;s System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA); fall in the GVA of retail trade; and lowering of the GVA of the unorganised trade.<br /><br />While SNA only had a small role &mdash; measurement of financial services (treating the RBI as a non-market institution) &mdash; the most significant change, according to Anant, came in the GVA of retail trade wherein the CSO moved the indicator from the erstwhile Gross Trading Income (GTI) in 2004-05 base year to use of sales tax data for the latest backcasting. Anant felt that the boom in mining sector in mid-2000 may have boosted the GTI, leading to substantially higher gross value added for organised retail trade in those years.<br /><br />&ldquo;The implicit growth in retail trade (in 2011-12) is much lower than what national accounts had been projecting using the erstwhile GTI indicator and NSS benchmark of late nineties for 2004-05 base year. We had to bring down the growth rate of trade. The growth rate of retail trade has now been brought down in the latest backcasting through the changes in the benchmark and the change in the indicator to sales tax from GTI,&rdquo; Anant said.<br /><br />The improvement that is happening because of the changes in governance will improve the quality of the country&rsquo;s measure of national income, he said, adding this can lead to higher or lower growth rate, but the quality of measure would be better.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" title="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 3 December, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Decoding the CSO's backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats

Published on Dec 11, 2018   Modified on Dec 11, 2018

-The Hindu Business Line ‘GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down’ New Delhi: “You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India’s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,” said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India. When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the 2011-12 GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates were lower than what the 2004-05 (previous base year) series had projected (estimated) for 2011-12, according to Anant. “If you are bound to get a lower estimate in 2011-12, you are bound to get a lower growth rates for the period (2004 to 2011),” Anant told BusinessLine while decoding the CSO’s recent 2011-12 series backcasting exercise. Anant attributed the uniform fall in GDP growth rates from 2004 to 2011 partly to the statistical effect and partly to a fall in the tertiary sector’s gross value added (GVA) due to changes in the methodology. Reasons behind GVA fall Three broad factors contributed to the fall in the tertiary sector’s GVA: UN’s System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA); fall in the GVA of retail trade; and lowering of the GVA of the unorganised trade. While SNA only had a small role — measurement of financial services (treating the RBI as a non-market institution) — the most significant change, according to Anant, came in the GVA of retail trade wherein the CSO moved the indicator from the erstwhile Gross Trading Income (GTI) in 2004-05 base year to use of sales tax data for the latest backcasting. Anant felt that the boom in mining sector in mid-2000 may have boosted the GTI, leading to substantially higher gross value added for organised retail trade in those years. “The implicit growth in retail trade (in 2011-12) is much lower than what national accounts had been projecting using the erstwhile GTI indicator and NSS benchmark of late nineties for 2004-05 base year. We had to bring down the growth rate of trade. The growth rate of retail trade has now been brought down in the latest backcasting through the changes in the benchmark and the change in the indicator to sales tax from GTI,” Anant said. The improvement that is happening because of the changes in governance will improve the quality of the country’s measure of national income, he said, adding this can lead to higher or lower growth rate, but the quality of measure would be better. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu Business Line, 3 December, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/decoding-the-csos-backcasting-of-national-income-data/article25655928.ece

Tagged with: Central Statistics Office (CSO) GDP Back-series GDP estimates GDP growth

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