Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Delayed impact    </title>
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-The Hindu Business Line

Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban

Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few..."/>
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-The Hindu Business Line

Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban

Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban<br /></em><br />Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few commentators were convinced that it did. Macro-economic data releases such as the first advance GDP estimates (which retained real gross value added, or GVA, growth at 7 per cent for FY17), agricultural output (which showed a sharp increase), quick estimates of the IIP (which showed a turnaround in January) and inflation indices flagged no untoward trends. However, recent data suggest that the celebration may have come a tad too early. Data releases since late May have been suggesting that demonetisation may have had insidious second-order impacts which are yet to be fully understood. Recent data showing a moribund investment leg of the economy and deflationary trends in agri-produce, suggest that key growth engines of the economy took a hard knock in the January-March quarter of 2017.<br /><br />Provisional GDP estimates released on May 31 acknowledged that growth in the GVA fell sharply in Q4 FY17 to 5.6 per cent, after holding up at 6.7 per cent in the note ban quarter. This moderated GVA growth for the full year to 6.6 per cent, a 130 basis point slump from FY16. It was some heavy lifting by the government and a rebound in agricultural output that sustained even the 6.6 per cent growth. But more recent inflation data suggests that the farm sector prosperity indicated by the GDP numbers may be nothing more than a mirage. Both CPI and WPI inflation rates have slipped to multi-month lows in May, driven mainly by an unusual slump in food prices. Vegetable prices are down 13 per cent year-on-year, pulses have declined 19 per cent and fruits/oils are up just 1-2 per cent in a year, reinforcing the collapse in incomes that has had farmers up in arms across States. That prices for a wide range of crops should deflate in tandem during the pre-monsoon months of March to May, a seasonally inflationary period, suggest that factors other than the large harvest could be at play in depressing rural fortunes. One plausible explanation is that demonetisation delivered a body blow to the traditional distribution channels and marketing centres for agri-produce, leading to demand destruction. The uncertainty and de-stocking preceding GST is likely aggravating this problem. Wholesale trade channels for manufactured products faced a similar crisis in the post-demonetisation months, and were bailed out by the manufacturers. The RBI&rsquo;s inexplicable reluctance to restore cash in the economy to pre-note ban levels, seems to be aggravating the cash crunch. <br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 18 June, 2017, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban<br /></em><br />Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few commentators were convinced that it did. Macro-economic data releases such as the first advance GDP estimates (which retained real gross value added, or GVA, growth at 7 per cent for FY17), agricultural output (which showed a sharp increase), quick estimates of the IIP (which showed a turnaround in January) and inflation indices flagged no untoward trends. However, recent data suggest that the celebration may have come a tad too early. Data releases since late May have been suggesting that demonetisation may have had insidious second-order impacts which are yet to be fully understood. Recent data showing a moribund investment leg of the economy and deflationary trends in agri-produce, suggest that key growth engines of the economy took a hard knock in the January-March quarter of 2017.<br /><br />Provisional GDP estimates released on May 31 acknowledged that growth in the GVA fell sharply in Q4 FY17 to 5.6 per cent, after holding up at 6.7 per cent in the note ban quarter. This moderated GVA growth for the full year to 6.6 per cent, a 130 basis point slump from FY16. It was some heavy lifting by the government and a rebound in agricultural output that sustained even the 6.6 per cent growth. But more recent inflation data suggests that the farm sector prosperity indicated by the GDP numbers may be nothing more than a mirage. Both CPI and WPI inflation rates have slipped to multi-month lows in May, driven mainly by an unusual slump in food prices. Vegetable prices are down 13 per cent year-on-year, pulses have declined 19 per cent and fruits/oils are up just 1-2 per cent in a year, reinforcing the collapse in incomes that has had farmers up in arms across States. That prices for a wide range of crops should deflate in tandem during the pre-monsoon months of March to May, a seasonally inflationary period, suggest that factors other than the large harvest could be at play in depressing rural fortunes. One plausible explanation is that demonetisation delivered a body blow to the traditional distribution channels and marketing centres for agri-produce, leading to demand destruction. The uncertainty and de-stocking preceding GST is likely aggravating this problem. Wholesale trade channels for manufactured products faced a similar crisis in the post-demonetisation months, and were bailed out by the manufacturers. The RBI&rsquo;s inexplicable reluctance to restore cash in the economy to pre-note ban levels, seems to be aggravating the cash crunch. <br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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-The Hindu Business Line

Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban

Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu Business Line<br /><br /><em>Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban<br /></em><br />Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few commentators were convinced that it did. Macro-economic data releases such as the first advance GDP estimates (which retained real gross value added, or GVA, growth at 7 per cent for FY17), agricultural output (which showed a sharp increase), quick estimates of the IIP (which showed a turnaround in January) and inflation indices flagged no untoward trends. However, recent data suggest that the celebration may have come a tad too early. Data releases since late May have been suggesting that demonetisation may have had insidious second-order impacts which are yet to be fully understood. Recent data showing a moribund investment leg of the economy and deflationary trends in agri-produce, suggest that key growth engines of the economy took a hard knock in the January-March quarter of 2017.<br /><br />Provisional GDP estimates released on May 31 acknowledged that growth in the GVA fell sharply in Q4 FY17 to 5.6 per cent, after holding up at 6.7 per cent in the note ban quarter. This moderated GVA growth for the full year to 6.6 per cent, a 130 basis point slump from FY16. It was some heavy lifting by the government and a rebound in agricultural output that sustained even the 6.6 per cent growth. But more recent inflation data suggests that the farm sector prosperity indicated by the GDP numbers may be nothing more than a mirage. Both CPI and WPI inflation rates have slipped to multi-month lows in May, driven mainly by an unusual slump in food prices. Vegetable prices are down 13 per cent year-on-year, pulses have declined 19 per cent and fruits/oils are up just 1-2 per cent in a year, reinforcing the collapse in incomes that has had farmers up in arms across States. That prices for a wide range of crops should deflate in tandem during the pre-monsoon months of March to May, a seasonally inflationary period, suggest that factors other than the large harvest could be at play in depressing rural fortunes. One plausible explanation is that demonetisation delivered a body blow to the traditional distribution channels and marketing centres for agri-produce, leading to demand destruction. The uncertainty and de-stocking preceding GST is likely aggravating this problem. Wholesale trade channels for manufactured products faced a similar crisis in the post-demonetisation months, and were bailed out by the manufacturers. The RBI&rsquo;s inexplicable reluctance to restore cash in the economy to pre-note ban levels, seems to be aggravating the cash crunch. <br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu Business Line, 18 June, 2017, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Delayed impact

Published on Jun 19, 2017   Modified on Jun 19, 2017

-The Hindu Business Line Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few commentators were convinced that it did. Macro-economic data releases such as the first advance GDP estimates (which retained real gross value added, or GVA, growth at 7 per cent for FY17), agricultural output (which showed a sharp increase), quick estimates of the IIP (which showed a turnaround in January) and inflation indices flagged no untoward trends. However, recent data suggest that the celebration may have come a tad too early. Data releases since late May have been suggesting that demonetisation may have had insidious second-order impacts which are yet to be fully understood. Recent data showing a moribund investment leg of the economy and deflationary trends in agri-produce, suggest that key growth engines of the economy took a hard knock in the January-March quarter of 2017. Provisional GDP estimates released on May 31 acknowledged that growth in the GVA fell sharply in Q4 FY17 to 5.6 per cent, after holding up at 6.7 per cent in the note ban quarter. This moderated GVA growth for the full year to 6.6 per cent, a 130 basis point slump from FY16. It was some heavy lifting by the government and a rebound in agricultural output that sustained even the 6.6 per cent growth. But more recent inflation data suggests that the farm sector prosperity indicated by the GDP numbers may be nothing more than a mirage. Both CPI and WPI inflation rates have slipped to multi-month lows in May, driven mainly by an unusual slump in food prices. Vegetable prices are down 13 per cent year-on-year, pulses have declined 19 per cent and fruits/oils are up just 1-2 per cent in a year, reinforcing the collapse in incomes that has had farmers up in arms across States. That prices for a wide range of crops should deflate in tandem during the pre-monsoon months of March to May, a seasonally inflationary period, suggest that factors other than the large harvest could be at play in depressing rural fortunes. One plausible explanation is that demonetisation delivered a body blow to the traditional distribution channels and marketing centres for agri-produce, leading to demand destruction. The uncertainty and de-stocking preceding GST is likely aggravating this problem. Wholesale trade channels for manufactured products faced a similar crisis in the post-demonetisation months, and were bailed out by the manufacturers. The RBI’s inexplicable reluctance to restore cash in the economy to pre-note ban levels, seems to be aggravating the cash crunch. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu Business Line, 18 June, 2017, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/macro-data-hint-at-delayed-impacts-from-note-ban/article9729941.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: Demonetisation Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gross value added GDP estimates GDP growth GDP growth rate Economic Growth

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