Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan    </title>
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-The Hindu

The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.

Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering?

This debate..."/>
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-The Hindu

The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.

Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering?

This debate..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.<br /></em><br />Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering?<br /><br />This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy has suffered a debilitating blow from the note ban are not willing to rest their case here. They have flagged a long list of issues with these GDP numbers, apart from hinting that the numbers are fudged.<br /><br />However, this is taking the criticism a little too far. A closer analysis of the CSO&rsquo;s estimates suggests that, contrary to perception, they do factor in the impact of the note ban. And while India&rsquo;s GDP estimation method could certainly do with improvements, the CSO has been both transparent and consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicions of window-dressing.<br /><br /><em>Why so high?<br /></em><br />First, the sceptics ask, how did the GDP growth for FY17 turn out to be so high? The 7.1% number is unchanged from the CSO&rsquo;s initial estimates and is also well above the 6.5%-6.8% growth estimated by most private forecasters. Is the CSO implying that vacuuming up 86% of cash in circulation had no impact on the economy?<br /><br />Well, that is a wrong reading of the numbers. To gauge the actual level of economic activity, Gross Value Added (GVA) is the more pertinent number than GDP. The GVA measures the value of output created by different segments of the economy. Indirect taxes (minus subsidies) are added to it, to arrive at the GDP.<br /><br />The GVA for FY17, as per CSO data, does show a dent from demonetisation. At 6.7%, it has registered a sharp decline of 110 basis points from 7.8% (revised estimate) for FY16.<br /><br />While GVA growth is pretty close to private forecasts, what lifted the GDP is the strong 12.3% surge in indirect taxes that the CSO estimates for this fiscal. This is a plausible number, given that the Centre&rsquo;s indirect tax collections already surged by 25% in April-December 2016, powered by higher excise duty on fuel and service tax.<br /><br />There is no obfuscation here, because assessing the GVA and adding back net taxes is the global prescription for GDP estimation by the output method.<br /><br /><em>Too mild?<br /></em><br />So the CSO does admit that economic activity has been impacted by the note ban. But isn&rsquo;t it estimating too mild an impact, with the Q3 GVA growth at 6.6%, against 7% last year?<br /><br />Commentators cite some key indicators to &lsquo;prove&rsquo; that economic activity shrank in the note ban months. For instance, two-wheeler sales collapsed by 22% year-on-year in December, banks reported anaemic loan growth at 5%, cement despatches fell by 9% and realtors saw a 40% dip in home sales.<br /><br />But given that the economy is made up of literally hundreds of products and sectors, it is well within the realm of possibility that the economy did well even while these indicators slowed. For instance, for the same December month, steel output grew by 15%, power generation surged by 6% and refinery output expanded 6.4%. If bank credit slumped, companies doubled their borrowings from the bond market.<br /><br />Also, CSO estimates do show that some sectors of the economy took it on the chin in the demonetisation quarter. Manufacturing saw its GVA growth slide from 12.8% in Q3 2015 to 8.3% in Q3 2016. Finance, real estate and services saw growth collapse from 10.4% to 3.1%. Construction weakened from 3.2% to 2.7%.<br /><br />But making up for these was the 6% rebound in agriculture (2.2% shrinkage last year), 6.8% increase in electricity, gas and water supply and a bumper 11.9% hike in &lsquo;public administration, defence and other services&rsquo; which lifted the GVA.<br /><br />Agricultural output bounced back due to a good monsoon after consecutive drought years. Electricity generation was up on better coal availability. &lsquo;Public administration&rsquo; reflects higher government payouts on salaries and pensions after the Seventh Pay Commission.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 7 March, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.<br /></em><br />Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering?<br /><br />This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy has suffered a debilitating blow from the note ban are not willing to rest their case here. They have flagged a long list of issues with these GDP numbers, apart from hinting that the numbers are fudged.<br /><br />However, this is taking the criticism a little too far. A closer analysis of the CSO&rsquo;s estimates suggests that, contrary to perception, they do factor in the impact of the note ban. And while India&rsquo;s GDP estimation method could certainly do with improvements, the CSO has been both transparent and consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicions of window-dressing.<br /><br /><em>Why so high?<br /></em><br />First, the sceptics ask, how did the GDP growth for FY17 turn out to be so high? The 7.1% number is unchanged from the CSO&rsquo;s initial estimates and is also well above the 6.5%-6.8% growth estimated by most private forecasters. Is the CSO implying that vacuuming up 86% of cash in circulation had no impact on the economy?<br /><br />Well, that is a wrong reading of the numbers. To gauge the actual level of economic activity, Gross Value Added (GVA) is the more pertinent number than GDP. The GVA measures the value of output created by different segments of the economy. Indirect taxes (minus subsidies) are added to it, to arrive at the GDP.<br /><br />The GVA for FY17, as per CSO data, does show a dent from demonetisation. At 6.7%, it has registered a sharp decline of 110 basis points from 7.8% (revised estimate) for FY16.<br /><br />While GVA growth is pretty close to private forecasts, what lifted the GDP is the strong 12.3% surge in indirect taxes that the CSO estimates for this fiscal. This is a plausible number, given that the Centre&rsquo;s indirect tax collections already surged by 25% in April-December 2016, powered by higher excise duty on fuel and service tax.<br /><br />There is no obfuscation here, because assessing the GVA and adding back net taxes is the global prescription for GDP estimation by the output method.<br /><br /><em>Too mild?<br /></em><br />So the CSO does admit that economic activity has been impacted by the note ban. But isn&rsquo;t it estimating too mild an impact, with the Q3 GVA growth at 6.6%, against 7% last year?<br /><br />Commentators cite some key indicators to &lsquo;prove&rsquo; that economic activity shrank in the note ban months. For instance, two-wheeler sales collapsed by 22% year-on-year in December, banks reported anaemic loan growth at 5%, cement despatches fell by 9% and realtors saw a 40% dip in home sales.<br /><br />But given that the economy is made up of literally hundreds of products and sectors, it is well within the realm of possibility that the economy did well even while these indicators slowed. For instance, for the same December month, steel output grew by 15%, power generation surged by 6% and refinery output expanded 6.4%. If bank credit slumped, companies doubled their borrowings from the bond market.<br /><br />Also, CSO estimates do show that some sectors of the economy took it on the chin in the demonetisation quarter. Manufacturing saw its GVA growth slide from 12.8% in Q3 2015 to 8.3% in Q3 2016. Finance, real estate and services saw growth collapse from 10.4% to 3.1%. Construction weakened from 3.2% to 2.7%.<br /><br />But making up for these was the 6% rebound in agriculture (2.2% shrinkage last year), 6.8% increase in electricity, gas and water supply and a bumper 11.9% hike in &lsquo;public administration, defence and other services&rsquo; which lifted the GVA.<br /><br />Agricultural output bounced back due to a good monsoon after consecutive drought years. Electricity generation was up on better coal availability. &lsquo;Public administration&rsquo; reflects higher government payouts on salaries and pensions after the Seventh Pay Commission.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 7 March, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing.<br /></em><br />Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering?<br /><br />This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy has suffered a debilitating blow from the note ban are not willing to rest their case here. They have flagged a long list of issues with these GDP numbers, apart from hinting that the numbers are fudged.<br /><br />However, this is taking the criticism a little too far. A closer analysis of the CSO&rsquo;s estimates suggests that, contrary to perception, they do factor in the impact of the note ban. And while India&rsquo;s GDP estimation method could certainly do with improvements, the CSO has been both transparent and consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicions of window-dressing.<br /><br /><em>Why so high?<br /></em><br />First, the sceptics ask, how did the GDP growth for FY17 turn out to be so high? The 7.1% number is unchanged from the CSO&rsquo;s initial estimates and is also well above the 6.5%-6.8% growth estimated by most private forecasters. Is the CSO implying that vacuuming up 86% of cash in circulation had no impact on the economy?<br /><br />Well, that is a wrong reading of the numbers. To gauge the actual level of economic activity, Gross Value Added (GVA) is the more pertinent number than GDP. The GVA measures the value of output created by different segments of the economy. Indirect taxes (minus subsidies) are added to it, to arrive at the GDP.<br /><br />The GVA for FY17, as per CSO data, does show a dent from demonetisation. At 6.7%, it has registered a sharp decline of 110 basis points from 7.8% (revised estimate) for FY16.<br /><br />While GVA growth is pretty close to private forecasts, what lifted the GDP is the strong 12.3% surge in indirect taxes that the CSO estimates for this fiscal. This is a plausible number, given that the Centre&rsquo;s indirect tax collections already surged by 25% in April-December 2016, powered by higher excise duty on fuel and service tax.<br /><br />There is no obfuscation here, because assessing the GVA and adding back net taxes is the global prescription for GDP estimation by the output method.<br /><br /><em>Too mild?<br /></em><br />So the CSO does admit that economic activity has been impacted by the note ban. But isn&rsquo;t it estimating too mild an impact, with the Q3 GVA growth at 6.6%, against 7% last year?<br /><br />Commentators cite some key indicators to &lsquo;prove&rsquo; that economic activity shrank in the note ban months. For instance, two-wheeler sales collapsed by 22% year-on-year in December, banks reported anaemic loan growth at 5%, cement despatches fell by 9% and realtors saw a 40% dip in home sales.<br /><br />But given that the economy is made up of literally hundreds of products and sectors, it is well within the realm of possibility that the economy did well even while these indicators slowed. For instance, for the same December month, steel output grew by 15%, power generation surged by 6% and refinery output expanded 6.4%. If bank credit slumped, companies doubled their borrowings from the bond market.<br /><br />Also, CSO estimates do show that some sectors of the economy took it on the chin in the demonetisation quarter. Manufacturing saw its GVA growth slide from 12.8% in Q3 2015 to 8.3% in Q3 2016. Finance, real estate and services saw growth collapse from 10.4% to 3.1%. Construction weakened from 3.2% to 2.7%.<br /><br />But making up for these was the 6% rebound in agriculture (2.2% shrinkage last year), 6.8% increase in electricity, gas and water supply and a bumper 11.9% hike in &lsquo;public administration, defence and other services&rsquo; which lifted the GVA.<br /><br />Agricultural output bounced back due to a good monsoon after consecutive drought years. Electricity generation was up on better coal availability. &lsquo;Public administration&rsquo; reflects higher government payouts on salaries and pensions after the Seventh Pay Commission.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true">click here</a> to read more.</div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 7 March, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan

Published on Mar 7, 2017   Modified on Mar 7, 2017

-The Hindu The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing. Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering? This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy has suffered a debilitating blow from the note ban are not willing to rest their case here. They have flagged a long list of issues with these GDP numbers, apart from hinting that the numbers are fudged. However, this is taking the criticism a little too far. A closer analysis of the CSO’s estimates suggests that, contrary to perception, they do factor in the impact of the note ban. And while India’s GDP estimation method could certainly do with improvements, the CSO has been both transparent and consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicions of window-dressing. Why so high? First, the sceptics ask, how did the GDP growth for FY17 turn out to be so high? The 7.1% number is unchanged from the CSO’s initial estimates and is also well above the 6.5%-6.8% growth estimated by most private forecasters. Is the CSO implying that vacuuming up 86% of cash in circulation had no impact on the economy? Well, that is a wrong reading of the numbers. To gauge the actual level of economic activity, Gross Value Added (GVA) is the more pertinent number than GDP. The GVA measures the value of output created by different segments of the economy. Indirect taxes (minus subsidies) are added to it, to arrive at the GDP. The GVA for FY17, as per CSO data, does show a dent from demonetisation. At 6.7%, it has registered a sharp decline of 110 basis points from 7.8% (revised estimate) for FY16. While GVA growth is pretty close to private forecasts, what lifted the GDP is the strong 12.3% surge in indirect taxes that the CSO estimates for this fiscal. This is a plausible number, given that the Centre’s indirect tax collections already surged by 25% in April-December 2016, powered by higher excise duty on fuel and service tax. There is no obfuscation here, because assessing the GVA and adding back net taxes is the global prescription for GDP estimation by the output method. Too mild? So the CSO does admit that economic activity has been impacted by the note ban. But isn’t it estimating too mild an impact, with the Q3 GVA growth at 6.6%, against 7% last year? Commentators cite some key indicators to ‘prove’ that economic activity shrank in the note ban months. For instance, two-wheeler sales collapsed by 22% year-on-year in December, banks reported anaemic loan growth at 5%, cement despatches fell by 9% and realtors saw a 40% dip in home sales. But given that the economy is made up of literally hundreds of products and sectors, it is well within the realm of possibility that the economy did well even while these indicators slowed. For instance, for the same December month, steel output grew by 15%, power generation surged by 6% and refinery output expanded 6.4%. If bank credit slumped, companies doubled their borrowings from the bond market. Also, CSO estimates do show that some sectors of the economy took it on the chin in the demonetisation quarter. Manufacturing saw its GVA growth slide from 12.8% in Q3 2015 to 8.3% in Q3 2016. Finance, real estate and services saw growth collapse from 10.4% to 3.1%. Construction weakened from 3.2% to 2.7%. But making up for these was the 6% rebound in agriculture (2.2% shrinkage last year), 6.8% increase in electricity, gas and water supply and a bumper 11.9% hike in ‘public administration, defence and other services’ which lifted the GVA. Agricultural output bounced back due to a good monsoon after consecutive drought years. Electricity generation was up on better coal availability. ‘Public administration’ reflects higher government payouts on salaries and pensions after the Seventh Pay Commission. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 7 March, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/cracking-the-gdp-mystery/article17418792.ece?homepage=true

Tagged with: Central Statistics Office (CSO) GDP estimates GDP growth GDP growth rate Economic Growth

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