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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Demonetization: Pain or gain? -BM Singh

Demonetization: Pain or gain? -BM Singh

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published Published on Dec 14, 2016   modified Modified on Dec 14, 2016
-Livemint.com

Mere demonetization would not serve the purpose, it would have to be taken in conjunction with other measures to correct systemic faults and not just destruction of cash

Most of the country and even foreigners are going gaga over the move by the government to demonetize high-denomination notes. A presumption has been made that they mostly reflect black money or unaccounted wealth. A bold move indeed and there are many who have been caught unawares with a bagful of notes. However, the question is: does it fundamentally change the dynamic of corruption or does it have only cosmetic value? Here is a look at it from a slightly different perspective.

Unaccounted wealth in the form of cash stashed away is only the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. The move itself would target at the most 5% of the population, while the pain will be felt by 95%, albeit for a few days. Take the example of the daily wage earner who does not get paid and cannot feed his family, as cash is not available. Or the rehriwalla who goes around without selling his wares which could be perishable. For them, it was more like carpet-bombing on the cash economy rather than a surgical strike on black money! It’s a predominately cash economy without access to plastic money or banks. As someone remarked, “Has the Indian economy gone on holiday” for the past few days, and maybe another week or so? What of the consequences? Consider the number of man-hours lost with people standing in long queues and often coming back disappointed as the branch ran out of currency. But the people say that they don’t mind the pain as long as the ‘black’ money goes extinct.

Really? Is it that simple? This cash is only the tip of the iceberg and most of the parallel economy is embedded in real estate/jewellery/bullion or in tax havens. Money is always being USED and very little is wasted by keeping it idle. This move is akin to giving an aspirin to a sick person to cool the temperature without treating the underlying disease. What if the pain is not just long lines, but a sharp downturn in growth or even contraction? What if the pain is less job growth? What if the pain is to drive the ‘black’ money deeper underground?

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Livemint.com, 15 November, 2016, http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hRDFooAtSLaeqmLjwXAfpN/Demonetization-Pain-or-gain.html


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