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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Did the Indian economy create nearly 13 million jobs in 2017? -Amit Basole and Anand Shrivastava

Did the Indian economy create nearly 13 million jobs in 2017? -Amit Basole and Anand Shrivastava

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published Published on Sep 8, 2018   modified Modified on Sep 8, 2018
-Hindustan Times

While a final conclusion on employment growth should wait for 2017-18 NSSO data, rosy estimates based on selective assumptions do not inspire much confidence .

New Delhi:
In a study prepared as a background report for the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, economists Surjit Bhalla and Tirthatanmoy Das have claimed that the Indian economy created around 12.8 million jobs (by principal status) in 2017. The authors also claim that net job creation between 2013 and 2017 in India was 22.1 million, which is much better than the creation of 11 million jobs between 2004-05 and 2011-12. This suggests the present government has done a better job on the employment front than its predecessor.

These findings are in sharp contrast to statistics from private sources such as the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which shows the increase in employment between 2016 and 2017 to be just 1.4 million. Given the centrality of the job-debate in the run-up to the 2019 general elections, such a divergence in employment estimates is intriguing.

To be sure, neither of these estimates will be considered as the final word in the great Indian employment debate. All credible employment related studies in India rely on employment-unemployment surveys (EUS) conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO). Since the latest available survey was conducted in 2011-12, there is no reliable way to evaluate job-creation under the present government. Bhalla and Das themselves admit that they “now anxiously wait for the confirmation (or rejection) of our estimates from the NSSO survey for 2017-18”. This caveat notwithstanding, we believe that their conclusion is based on the selective use of data and unjustified assumptions.

Employment figures in India are derived by applying two important parameters, labour force participation rate (LFPR) and unemployment rate (UR), on estimates of working-age population (15 to 59 years).

The LFPR is the percentage of working-age people who work or want to work. UR is the percentage of those persons in the labour force who want to work but cannot find a job. Number of jobs in a given period is calculated by applying the work force participation rate (difference between LFPR and UR) on the total working-age population. While LFPR and UR are derived from EUS findings, census figures are used to get working-age population figures. For a given working-age population, a higher LFPR and lower UR will increase the absolute number of jobs in a given period and vice versa.

Since there is not much debate on population estimates thanks to census trends, employment estimates depend more on what the LFPR and UR ratios are at a given point of time.

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Hindustan Times, 5 September, 2018, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/did-the-indian-economy-create-nearly-13-million-jobs-in-2017/story-2UJHNBwwAkC0rpLv65xFZI.html


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