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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Do recent indicators hint at a real economic revival? -Vikas Dhoot

Do recent indicators hint at a real economic revival? -Vikas Dhoot

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published Published on Nov 6, 2020   modified Modified on Nov 6, 2020

-The Hindu

After India’s economy collapsed in the first quarter of 2020-21 following the nationwide lockdown imposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, some economic indicators from September and October, from power consumption to GST collections, suggest that things are improving. But is this a sustainable recovery under way, or just an expression of pent-up demand combined with India’s festive-season spending? In a conversation moderated by Vikas Dhoot, Naushad Forbes and M. Govinda Rao throw light on the subject. Edited excerpts:

* How has the ground situation changed for industry since March when the lockdown was imposed?

Naushad Forbes: Well, obviously, things have improved greatly. Our lockdowns were amongst the most stringent in the world, as we not only stopped most movement of people, but also of all logistics. I think we were probably unique in the world in stopping logistics as well as the movement of goods. And then, we also stopped most manufacturing, with the exception of essential supplies. Both those things were relatively unique, and it actually led to huge disruption in April. Companies across sectors saw a virtual stoppage in activity that continued into May.

Towards the end of May, things started opening up. But because of the way in which we had done the lockdowns... it took a while to get things back to a relative degree of smoothness. It was only in the middle and end of June that companies really started getting back to some degree of normalcy. And that is the reason for the first quarter numbers of -24% in the GDP. Since then, things have been recovering.

If you look at where we are now, a very different picture emerges, depending on which sector you talk of — pharmaceuticals and chemicals, food and beverages, tractors, two-wheelers, consumer durables are all reporting good performance, with many firms reporting growth on last year’s average numbers. At the other end of the scale, you have sectors like travel and tourism, which are still struggling, with capacity utilisation numbers between 10% and 30%. They are a very long way from recovery. Construction and real estate are also struggling, as is retail. In the last month, because of the run-up to Diwali in the festive season, retail has seen some improvement, but that is concentrated in high-street stores, not shopping malls, as people are still afraid to go to shopping malls and wander around.

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The Hindu, 6 November, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/do-recent-indicators-hint-at-a-real-economic-revival/article33034269.ece?homepage=true


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