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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Do We Really Know Why COVID-19 Spikes In Some Places? -Rukmini S

Do We Really Know Why COVID-19 Spikes In Some Places? -Rukmini S

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published Published on Nov 23, 2020   modified Modified on Nov 23, 2020

-IndiaSpend.com

Chennai: About 10 months, nine million cases and over 130,000 deaths later, India does not yet know enough about why the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 affected whom it did, and how it did that.

There is wide variation in the spread of COVID-19 between states. Areas with higher population density are expected to have more cases, but varying testing rates could be affecting case detection. While the elderly and those with comorbidities are more likely to progress to severe disease and fatality, our analysis of national health data shows that there are exceptions among states. Higher testing is expected to lead to more cases, but some states buck this trend, even as evidence suggests some undercounting. Moreover, increasing use of the rapid antigen test, which is known to return false negatives in up to 50% of cases, further complicates case detection and reported numbers.

As would be expected with an outbreak that originated in China, India’s first cases were of imported origin. As a direct result, the early Indian outbreaks could be traced back to well-known international pathways into Indian states and cities. When travel resumed after the lockdown, some outbreaks could be traced to migrant movement patterns; in states such as Karnataka that disclosed the origin of their new cases, the majority were linked to travellers and contacts of positive persons, as IndiaSpend reported in August. By the third week of November, over half of all cases were of unknown origin. Further, most other states do not disclose the source of their cases--while doctors on the ground call community transmission, governments remain loathe to use the phrase.

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IndiaSpend.com, 23 November, 2020, https://www.indiaspend.com/do-we-really-know-why-covid-19-spikes-in-some-places/


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