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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Domestic demand must play a greater role in India’s growth story -Jahangir Aziz

Domestic demand must play a greater role in India’s growth story -Jahangir Aziz

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published Published on Mar 5, 2020   modified Modified on Mar 5, 2020

-The Indian Express

Policymakers need to stop thinking about India as a perennially supply-constrained economy focusing almost all policies and reforms to easing these constraints. Instead, it is time to let domestic demand play a greater role in India’s growth story.

India’s fourth quarter GDP growth (calendar year 2019) printed another sub-5 per cent growth rate. It would have been lower had it not been for the large downward revisions to previous years’ GDP that statistically boosted the last quarter’s growth rate because of favourable base effects. Policymakers and the market heaved a sigh of relief that the relentless decline over the last three years at least seems to have stabilised around 4-5 per cent. But, because year-over growth rates are so strongly affected by what happened a year ago, most economies (including China) instead publish and conduct policy discussions based on sequential quarterly growth. Also, sequential growth rates provide a much better sense of the momentum and turning points in activity, which are critical to decide whether, how much, and when the economy needs policy support. If they had done so, both policymakers and the market would have found that the growth momentum rose, albeit modestly, from 3.8 per cent in the third quarter 2019 to 4.1 per cent. More importantly, non-farm and non-government GDP (the closest approximation to non-farm private sector GDP) bounced much more sharply from 1.6 per cent (and no this is not a misprint) to 4.4 per cent in the fourth quarter.

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The Indian Express, 5 March, 2020, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nso-india-gdp-growth-data-indian-economy-nirmala-sitharaman-6299532/


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