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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Dry days: 17% rain deficit in July -Amit Bhattacharya, Vishwa Mohan & Neha Madaan

Dry days: 17% rain deficit in July -Amit Bhattacharya, Vishwa Mohan & Neha Madaan

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published Published on Aug 2, 2015   modified Modified on Aug 2, 2015
-The Times of India

NEW DELHI: After a wet June, when other systems had countered the adverse effects of El Nino, monsoon took a drier turn in July and the month ended with a countrywide rain deficit of 17%. However, kharif sowing remained robust, boosted by good rain spells in several parts of the country.

With the dip in rains, monsoon's performance in the first half of the season — June 1 to July 31 — was 5% below the long term average. June had a monsoon surplus of 16%.

Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Jharkhand and parts of central India masked the fact that July this year was the driest since 2002 in terms of average rainfall across the country. The month started on a weak note and rains remained below par till July 19, except for a brief four-day period from the 9th.

But there were several redeeming features. "The rainfall, although weak, has been fairly well distributed across most parts of the country," said D Sivananda Pai, head of India Meteorological Department's long range forecasting section.

However, some distress zones of low rainfall have started emerging. Rains were consistently weak through July in south India as well as subdivisions such as Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra. From July 1 till 29, the southern peninsula recorded the highest rainfall deficiency in the country, at 46%.

"We had forecast an 8% rainfall deficit for July, but it has turned out to be more. A typical feature this year has been that most rain-causing disturbances have been coming from the east. Indian Ocean's monsoon circulation has been weak, which means that the monsoon pulses are not progressing from the south, which has caused a significant rainfall deficiency in the southern parts," a Met department official said.

However, rains in the north, most parts of central India and many regions of the east were close to normal. This is reflected in the kharif crop sowing figures. The overall sown area has, so far, been far ahead of the corresponding figures last year, which was a bad monsoon year.

The area under kharif as on Friday (July 31) was still less than what was reported at this time in 2013, when rains were plentiful in the monsoon months. As compared to 819.99 lakh hectares as on August 2, 2013, the kharif sown area this year was 764.28 lakh hectares as on July 31.

The monsoon is predicted to be active through the first week of August, raising hopes that the net sown area would grow in the coming days.

Several agencies, however, have predicted a relatively dry period in the country after the first week of August when the monsoon could go into a break, increasing the overall rain deficit.

In its monsoon update in June, IMD had forecast a 10% rain deficit in August. The department will issue another update for the second half of the season in a day or two. It had in June predicted a drought year, with overall seasonal rains at 12% below normal.

Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet downgraded its prediction for the season from 102% to 98%, still staying within the normal range. The agency's forecast for July was 104%, with an error margin of 9%, which turned out to be more than optimistic. IMD's prediction of 92% rainfall in July turned out to be more accurate, with actual the figure falling within the its error margin of 9%.

The Times of India, 2 August, 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Dry-days-17-rain-deficit-in-July/articleshow/48312924.cms


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