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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Early budget hurdle to survey -Jayanta Roy Chowdhury

Early budget hurdle to survey -Jayanta Roy Chowdhury

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published Published on Jan 30, 2017   modified Modified on Jan 30, 2017
-The Telegraph

New Delhi: The demonetisation-hit economy, which is expected to limp back to normalcy by the middle of this calendar year, may report a GDP growth rate of around 7 per cent for 2016-17, according to North Block economists.

Ofcourse, like all cautious economists, North Block's tribe of coffee swigging GDP forecasters and policy sherpas will add a ceteris paribus (all other things being equal), the Latin term that the followers of John Stuart Mill use to indicate they may be wrong if things do not turnout the way they see it.

The data for making the calculations inthis year's economic survey will be those which the government has managed to get by the first week of January, which means December factory and farm data will have to be included.

However, one-fourth of the year's GDP figures will be guesswork as there are no past precedents or understanding of how demonetisation has played out with productive relations, North Block czars admitted in private conversations.

"Usually, we get an extra month's data as the survey is released on 27th February. Plus, we usually can figure out howthe last two months will pan out given the trends in the previous months. This time it's a blinder walk," the economists said.

An earlier estimate by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) had projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.1 per cent this financial year- far slower than 7.6 per cent in 2015-16. The CSO forecast did not take into account the impact of demonetisation, which sucked out 86 per cent of the cash in circulation through an executive fiat on November 8.

The CSO prediction was based on data for the first seven months, that is, till the end of October.

Indiastill nominally remains the world's fastest growing major economy, ahead of the 6.7 per cent growth in China, which is battling an industrial deceleration.

The big question is whether India can retain that position once the impact of demonetisation is fully factoredin. Other independent economists have suggested the GDP growth between 6per cent and 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal.

In last year's economic survey, North Block had set a GDP growth target of 7-7.75 per cent for the current year.

Agrowth rate near the lower end of the spectrum is seen as below par forthe course. But economic mandarins blame it on inclement global headwinds, including Brexit, and rising protectionism among many nationsin their report.

India is expected to grow up to around 8 per cent in 2017-18. "We plan to give a range for GDP growth, no single-digit targets," said officials.

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The Telegraph, 30 January, 2017, https://www.telegraphindia.com/1170130/jsp/business/story_132965.jsp#.WI6vqjideyA


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