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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Economy all-clear but riders remain -Jayanta Roy Chowdhury and R Suryamurthy

Economy all-clear but riders remain -Jayanta Roy Chowdhury and R Suryamurthy

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published Published on Dec 2, 2017   modified Modified on Dec 2, 2017
-The Telegraph

New Delhi: India's economy rebounded from a three-year low to grow at 6.3 per cent in the three months ended September 30.

"The impact of the demonetisation and the GST is well behind us," finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Thursday after the numbers were announced.

The economy had slowed dramatically in the first quarter to record a dismal 5.7 per cent growth. Opponents had then accused the Modi regime of wrecking what was once touted as the fastest growing economy in the world with his reckless experiments.

The BJP is certain to view the data as a godsend before the Gujarat elections. But while the government and the party were chuffed by the second quarter growth, there was no escaping a few cold facts.

• The growth rate was far lower than the 7.5 per cent growth in the year-ago quarter.

• The number fell short of a Reuters poll forecast of 6.4 per cent.

• India continues to trail China and the Philippines, which have notched up growth rates of 6.8 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively, in the quarter ended September 30.

The strong showing in the second quarter was underpinned by the 7 per cent growth in the manufacturing sector that accounts for almost 18 per cent of the economy. It had grown by a piffling 1.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. However, this was way below the 7.7 per cent manufacturing sector growth in July-September 2016.

The Modi government drew strong comfort from the assessment that the economy had finally reversed the steady slide in the past five quarters.

"Since May 2014 (when the Modi government assumed office), the economy has risen by more than 7 per cent in eight of the 13 quarters; it's only in one quarter - the first quarter of this year - when it fell below 6 per cent," Jaitley said.

"Hopefully, growth in the coming quarter will be on an upward trajectory," he added.

The growth figure gives the Modi government a chance to drum up talk about development ahead of the elections in Gujarat.

"Today's GDP numbers reiterate the #IndiaUnstoppable story under PM Narendra Modi. The strong rebound in growth is a reflection of solid economic management by the Modi government," tweeted BJP president Amit Shah.

Former finance minister P. Chidambaram, however, advised people not to be overjoyed about the turnaround.

"Happy that the July-September quarter has registered a growth rate of 6.3 per cent. This is a PAUSE in the declining trend of the last five quarters. But we cannot say now whether this will mark an upward trend in the growth rate. We should wait for the growth rates over the next 3-4 quarters before we can reach a definite conclusion," he said in a series of tweets.

Chidambaram added: "6.3 per cent is far below the promise of the Modi government and far below the potential of a well-managed Indian economy."

Some economists believe that the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which released the figures, has not adequately captured the impact of demonetisation and GST on the informal sector that accounts for 26 per cent of the economy.

Commenting on the strong growth in the second quarter in manufacturing, M. Govinda Rao, a former member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Committee, said: "There is, however, a problem here. We are calculating manufacturing growth based on corporate results... this does not take into account the small and medium sector which suffered the most after demonetisation and the launch of GST."

A couple of big worries remain. Farm sector growth tumbled to 1.7 per cent from 2.3 per cent in the previous quarter and 4.1 per cent in the same quarter last year.

Construction continued to do badly, growing by 2.6 per cent in July-September 2017 compared with 4.3 per cent in the same period last year.

"We have to remember that this is despite the fact that the government has front-loaded its spending on projects, forcing up our fiscal deficit to a high of 96.1 per cent of the Rs 546,532 crore target set for the full year. This means that private spending on construction has been very, very dismal," said Pronab Sen, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission.

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The Telegraph, 1 December, 2017, https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/economy-all-clear-but-riders-remain-190260


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