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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Erratic monsoon may hit kharif output: FICCI by Gargi Parsai

Erratic monsoon may hit kharif output: FICCI by Gargi Parsai

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published Published on Oct 8, 2009   modified Modified on Oct 8, 2009

Loss in food grains estimated at 16 million tonnes 

Overall Kharif output can fall by 15 per cent

Call for long-term strategy to tackle vagaries of monsoon

Erratic monsoon this kharif could reduce the agricultural crop growth to -2 per cent year-on-year, down from an earlier estimate of 1.4 per cent, according to a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) report released here.

The report, “Drought in the Country: Implications and Strategies,” calls for a long-term strategy that insulates the agriculture sector from the vagaries of monsoon. The strategy should ensure food security by bringing more areas under irrigation, setting up advance weather forecasting systems, investing in farm research and development and taking steps to speed up farm mechanisation, the report said.

Quoting official estimates, it pointed out that on account of drought this year in 44 per cent of the districts, kharif crop was likely to decline by 15-20 per cent. “Overall kharif output can fall by 15 per cent due to monsoon deficiency. We can expect gross domestic product (GDP) at 5.2-5.8 per cent versus 6.4 per cent and agricultural GDP at minus 2 to minus 4 per cent. Moreover, given the shortage of water levels in the reservoirs, we see the rabi output also getting affected by about 0-5 per cent in agricultural volume production terms.”

The loss in food grains is estimated at 16 million tonnes, with the sowing of paddy, groundnut and sugarcane being lower than last year. While the situation was not alarming for the Public Distribution System wheat, as there were enough to last at least two years, the availability of PDS rice might run into trouble, if there were to be a repeat of this year’s situation in 2010-11.”

Noting that the monsoon was 23 per cent deficient this year, compared to 19 per cent in 2002 and 13 per cent in 2004, the report emphasised that bringing more farming area under irrigated conditions was the only long term solution that could result in monsoon-proofing.

Interlinking of the Ganga and Cauvery rivers was likely to take a large amount of money and time. Therefore, it would be prudent to develop small sections on long river-linking systems such as the Ken-Betwa link between Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The report said the India Meteorological Department should be equipped with better and sophisticated early warning systems and the district administration officials prepared to disseminate information to farmers quickly and also propose remedial measures on crop advisory in case of delayed or failed monsoon.

“Agriculture research and development should develop heat-resistant, short-duration varieties that require minimal irrigation. The government should actively engage the private sector in development of drought tolerant varieties of crop.”

Promoting farm mechanisation would be advantageous under conditions of intermittent and unexpected rains. Zero tillage, direct seeding of paddy and other equipment suitable for rain-fed farming conditions should be facilitated for farmers,” it said.

The FICCI is working with the Centre on developing a framework for farm mechanisation in the country.


The Hindu, 8 October, 2009, http://www.hindu.com/2009/10/08/stories/2009100853841200.htm
 

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