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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Excess deaths in Tamil Nadu over four times official COVID-19 tally -Srinivasan Ramani and Ramya Kannan

Excess deaths in Tamil Nadu over four times official COVID-19 tally -Srinivasan Ramani and Ramya Kannan

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published Published on Jun 16, 2021   modified Modified on Jun 17, 2021

-The Hindu

60,773 more fatalities during second wave.

The number of “excess deaths” registered by the Civil Registration System (CRS) in Tamil Nadu ever since the COVID-19 pandemic hit (from April 2020 to May 2021) is 6.2 times the official reported figure of 24,232 deaths. But in data accessed by The Hindu, the CRS recorded the number of deaths due to COVID-19 as 35,807 (14,652 in 2020 and 21,155 till May 2021), possibly adjusted over the months, an increase of nearly 47% in the deaths reported in the State health bulletin.

After omitting deaths due to causal factors unrelated to COVID-19, it is estimated that there were 1,61,581 excess deaths amounting to an undercount factor of 4.5 for the pandemic period — April 2020 to May 2021. In the second wave (April and May 2021) alone, the CRS registered 20,158 COVID-19 deaths, but we found that this was undercounted by a factor of 3, as the estimated excess deaths for this period were 60,773. The undercount factor for 2021 was 3.7.

Excess deaths in Tamil Nadu were calculated based on the month-wise number of deaths registered by the CRS from January 2018 to May 2021, besides utilising year-wise data from 2015.

Data accessed by The Hindu included cause-wise deaths registered in the CRS and medically certified deaths data (close to 45% of deaths were medically certified in the State as of latest data from 2019).

Causes such as heart disease and heart attacks, diabetes mellitus, unclassified, liver disease, bronchitis, pneumonia, cerebro-vascular issues constituted more than 80% of all deaths registered in 2020 and 2021, increasing from 72% and 73% in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that there was a fall in other causes overall compared to COVID-related or similar causality. Deaths due to cancer for example fell from 3% in 2018 and 2019 to 2.6% and 1.9% in 2020 and 2021 so far. The inability to access standard care for chronic conditions over a period of two years, it is suspected, could have led to higher mortality over this period among patients who had co-morbidities.

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The Hindu, 16 June, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/excess-deaths-in-tamil-nadu-over-four-times-official-covid-19-tally/article34834150.ece


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