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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Expected growth of 12.5% for India but “ very severe downside risks” due to COVID wave: IMF -Sriram Lakshman

Expected growth of 12.5% for India but “ very severe downside risks” due to COVID wave: IMF -Sriram Lakshman

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published Published on Apr 6, 2021   modified Modified on Apr 7, 2021

-The Hindu

Averting divergent outcomes would mean “resolving the health crisis everywhere” the report says

After an estimated contraction of 8% in the fiscal year that ended March 31, India is projected to grow at 12.5 % during the current year, settling down to 6.9% growth year (FY22/23), according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO): Managing Divergent Recoveries, released by the IMF as the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings kick off virtually. The growth outlook for India however comes with significant downside risks because of the current pandemic wave the country is experiencing, IMF economists said.

The projections for India were based on evidence to support the normalization of economic activity but these forecasts preceded the current wave of COVID-19 in India, “ which is quite concerning,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said at a press conference on Tuesday.

The current growth projections already take “ a fairly conservative view” IMF economist Malhar Nabar said.

“ But it’s true that with this very worrying uptick in cases…poses very severe downside risks tothe growth outlook for the economy,” he said.

After an estimated contraction of 3.3% in 2020 (calendar year), the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year and 4.4% next year, although there are significant divergences within and between countries. Projections for 2021 are slightly higher than they were in October 2020 due to fiscal support in some large economies and vaccine-supported recovery. The U.S.’s 1.3 percentage point forecast upgrade, especially, contributed to this, resulting in U.S. growth projections of 6.4% and 3.5% this calendar year and next.

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The Hindu, 6 April, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/after-a-contraction-of-8-expected-growth-of-125-for-india-imf/article34254394.ece?homepage=true


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