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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | FAO predicts marginal fall in global cereal production by Gargi Parsai

FAO predicts marginal fall in global cereal production by Gargi Parsai

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published Published on Nov 7, 2010   modified Modified on Nov 7, 2010

Current production and stocks are adequate to cover the demand

The global cereal production for 2010-11 is expected to be 2,239 million tonnes compared to 2, 261 million tonnes recorded in 2009-10, about 1 per cent lower than last year. Reduced output of wheat in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries due to drought, as well as smaller crops in the European Union and North Africa, account for the decline.

Even so, at the current level, the 2010 cereal production, coupled with large carryover stocks, “should be adequate to cover the projected world cereal utilisation in 2010-11,” says the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in its latest projections based on crop estimates towards the end of September. The projected global cereal utilisation for 2010-11 is 2 248 million tonnes.

While global wheat and coarse grain production is expected to be lower than in 2009, rice output is likely to be higher by 3 per cent, which is said to be a record.

In Asia, record cereal crops are anticipated in China and India, the FAO says. However, devastating floods damaged rice crops in Pakistan, while dry weather is adversely affecting prospects in Cambodia, and Lao People's Democratic Republic. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a recovery in production from last year's reduced level is anticipated.

The U.N. agency indicated that international prices of grain surged since the beginning of July in response to drought-reduced crops in the CIS exporting countries and a subsequent decision by the Russian Federation to ban exports. In September, wheat prices were 60 to 80 per cent higher than at the beginning of the season in July. However, prices are still one-third below their peaks in 2008. In the same period, the price of maize increased by about 40 per cent, while that of rice by only 7 per cent.

“In India prices of wheat and rice that had been increasing since mid-2009 strengthened in September in several markets, and in all locations are at high levels. Despite large stocks of wheat following two consecutive bumper harvests in 2009 and 2010, the prices of wheat remain high reflecting general inflation and high procurement prices. Prices of rice have also increased in recent months and are at the highest levels in most markets, particularly in Chennai. The government is releasing significant amounts of grain reserves in an attempt to stabilise prices,” it said.


The Hindu, 7 November, 2010, http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article871789.ece


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