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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | First Quarter GDP Estimates This Year no Cause for Celebration -Prabhat Patnaik

First Quarter GDP Estimates This Year no Cause for Celebration -Prabhat Patnaik

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published Published on Sep 11, 2022   modified Modified on Sep 11, 2022

-Newsclick.in

It is clear that the stagnation that was setting in during 2019-20 has persisted and has even intensified now.

The estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter released by the government on August 31 paint a dismal picture of the Indian economy. Since the GDP in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) shows an increase of 13.5% over the first quarter GDP a year ago, and since 13.5% appears an impressive figure, official spokespersons have been putting a cheerful gloss over it. But a closer look reveals an economy getting further bogged down in a state of stagnation.

The economy, it may be recalled, had contracted sharply in 2020-21 because of the pandemic and the associated lockdown that was particularly draconian in India, and the recovery in 2021-22 had been incomplete from the trough reached a year ago. The 2022-23 first quarter figures, therefore had assumed particular significance as an index of the economy’s underlying resilience, especially since the impact of COVID-19, though not altogether absent, had lessened to such an extent that 2022-23 could be taken as a “normal” post-pandemic year. And the comparison here should be not with 2021-22 or 2020-21, both of which were affected by the pandemic, but with 2019-20 which was the last “normal” pre-pandemic year.

The first quarter GDP in 2019-20 was Rs 35.85 lakh crores, and the first quarter GDP in 2022-23 has been estimated at Rs 36.85 crores, which is only 2.8% higher. The economy in short is stagnating even at a time when the pandemic has largely abated and can no longer be held responsible for it. Some official economists have expressed satisfaction that at least the GDP figure has crossed what it was in the first quarter of 2019-20; but there has been a gap of three years in between, during which the population has increased and the capital stock has expanded. Simply crossing the GDP of three years ago, therefore is no cause for celebration; on the contrary, it reflects a situation of crisis. Put differently, between the pre-pandemic “normal” and the post-pandemic “normal”, the per capita GDP has fallen, even though the per capita capital stock has expanded.

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Newsclick.in, 11 September, 2022, https://www.newsclick.in/First-Quarter-GDP-Estimates-This-Year-no-Cause-Celebration?fbclid=IwAR2saz4JlHUnisXxqLyISJ5OP0P9MWg37wgIvV4ch4IHCjUIUy-CpvWHDK0


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