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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Focus on COVID-19 estimated deaths -Chandrakant Lahariya

Focus on COVID-19 estimated deaths -Chandrakant Lahariya

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published Published on Jun 21, 2021   modified Modified on Jun 21, 2021

-The Hindu

Mortality estimates, not officially reported deaths, have the potential to strengthen the pandemic response

In India, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, around 85% of all deaths were registered and only one-fourth of the registered deaths were medically certified for the causes of death. There have been wide variations among States and within them, in rural and urban areas. Understanding the causes of death is essential for health sector planning and optimal allocation of health resources. In the absence of robust data on the causes of death, governments rely on estimates.

Reporting COVID-19 deaths

The World Health Organization has estimated that world over, COVID-19 deaths could be two-three times the officially reported numbers. Public health experts, disease modellers, and research institutes which specialise in morbidity and mortality data have estimated that COVID-19 deaths in India could be in the range of three to 14 times the officially reported number of deaths.

As per ground reports, there has been under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths during the second wave of infections in India. In April and May 2021, crematorium and burial grounds had long queues, dead bodies were floating in rivers, more cremations were being done following the COVID-19 protocols than the officially reported number of deaths, and everyone had a few people in their social circle who had succumbed to COVID-19. All of these have been captured in media reports from various settings, including major cities and a number of States. Each of these cities and States has reported excess deaths (comparing two similar periods in different years) that are twice to even 30-40 times higher than the officially reported COVID-19 numbers.

Rural India is known to have a weak death registration system; however, there is corroborative evidence of excess deaths. At an existing death rate of seven per 1,000 people, an average village of 1,000 people should report around one death every two months. But most Indian villages have experienced deaths at a far higher rate in the two months of the second COVID-19 wave.

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The Hindu, 21 June, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/focus-on-covid-19-estimated-deaths/article34872300.ece?homepage=true


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