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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Food prices push retail inflation

Food prices push retail inflation

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published Published on Mar 13, 2013   modified Modified on Mar 13, 2013
-The Times of India

Retail inflation soared in February on the back of stubborn food prices sustaining pressure on consumers and complicating the policy choice for the central bank.

Data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Tuesday showed the inflation rate based on all-India general CPI ( consumer price index) for February was 10.91% compared to 10.79% for the previous month. The inflation rates for rural and urban areas for February were 11.01% and 10.84%.

This is the third consecutive month when retail inflation has remained in double digits. The data showed that cereal prices rose an annual 17.04% in February, while pulses and products shot up 12.39% year-on-year. Eggs, meat and fish rose 15.72%, while vegetable prices shot up an annual 21.29%. Prices of fruit and sugar also increased in double digits, while overall food and beverages rose 13.73% in February. Food accounts for a larger share in the CPI basket.

Economists said they expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates when it reviews monetary policy as the central bank would be keen to support growth.

The widely watched WPI (wholesale price index) inflation has moderated in recent months and economists have said that the only way to tackle food inflation is to raise supplies. WPI inflation has moderated to 6.62% in January after remaining sticky for several months.

"While trends in the CPI and CAD (current account deficit) are worrying, given the sharp deceleration in growth, we expect the RBI to cut rates by 25 basis points in its March 19 policy and a further 25 basis points in April/May," said Rohini Malkani, economist at Citigroup India. Growth is estimated to have slowed to a decade low of 5% but the finance ministry says it is expected to be closer to 6% in 2012-13 and gather momentum next year.

Food inflation has remained a policy challenge for the government and RBI but economists say that monetary policy has little impact on taming food inflation. The government has been advocating the need to raise supplies but so far the impact has been limited.

"The IIP (index of industrial production) data released today reflected sluggish industrial activities. On the other hand, the retail inflation data released today shows the demand pressure on the economy and retail price growth remained in double digits. The retail price growth has mainly originated from food products and monetary policy does not have much impact on controlling food price inflation," said Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Ratings.

The Times of India, 13 March, 2013, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Food-prices-push-retail-inflation/articleshow/18942209.cms


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