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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Food sector reform: Tackling the runaway food inflation train

Food sector reform: Tackling the runaway food inflation train

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published Published on Sep 30, 2013   modified Modified on Sep 30, 2013
-The Economic Times


Nothing can be more ironic than to have food inflation at 18% (August 2013 over last August) in a country that takes pride in enacting the National Food Security Act (NFSA) and bestowing "the right to food" to 67% of its population by promising 5 kg cereals per capita per month (pcpm) at highly subsidised rates.

Given that cereals consumption is 10.7 kg pcpm, people will have to face the markets for at least half of their cereal needs, and much of the other foods ranging from fruits and vegetables to protein. But inflation in vegetables is at 78% with onions going through the roof, and in protein foods at 19%. Even cereals are up at 14%, with the basic staple, rice, at 20%.

Much of this is self-inflicted and controllable, provided we are ready to take some bold steps.

While food inflation hovered below 4% during FY 2001 to FY 2008, it jumped to double digits during FY 2009 to FY 2013 and is continuing at that pace. One reason was the big fiscal stimulus of FY 2009, just before the last election, which doubled the fiscal deficit in a single year.

In a country where an average household spends almost half of its expenditure on food, it was but natural that this increased spending will put pressure on food prices.

The supply response in agriculture is positive and gave a high farm GDP growth in response to better price incentives, but not so high as to keep have to control food prices in the medium term, we must wind down the fiscal stimulus in a calibrated way.

That's where the dilemma between growth and food inflation appears. Though the fiscal stimulus helped raise overall growth, it also pumped up lot of expenditure through NREGA-type activities.

These have led to an unprecedented increase in farm wages, which have been growing at almost 18% per annum for the last five years. This is causing cost push food inflation, partly also via MSPs responding to rising costs in farming.

Unless labour and land productivity increases faster, this pressure on food inflation is going to stay. But policymakers can do a lot to bring food inflation from 18% to less than 7%, if not below 4%. The government has huge stocks of cereals, way above what it needs for its commitments under NFSA. At least 20 million tonnes of rice and wheat can be liquidated in the domestic market at pragmatic prices (wheat at Rs 1,400/quintal and rice at Rs 1,900/qtl).

This will immediately bring food inflation to less than 8%, as cereals have the highest weight in food.

Next, import duties on fruits and vegetables can be slashed to zero or 5%, from the current levels of 30% in most cases. In case of onions, government will have to import large quantities and distribute that in domestic markets at below market prices to break cartels of rent seekers, if there are any.

But a more durable solution to perishable commodities lies in exempting them from the APMC Act, and encouraging more efficient value chains that connect farmer groups with processors and organised retailers.

We have been too slow and timid in building these value chains. Processing is critical to stabilise prices of fresh perishable products. Even in case of onions, if the government gives priority to promote dehydrated chopped onions (given that onions have 80-85% water), they can be stored easily in large quantities for much longer, and consumers can easily switch to these when the prices of fresh onions go sky-high.

This processing technology exists in India and some processors are already exporting dehydrated onions to countries like Japan. The government can keep some stocks of these to stabilise prices, whenever the need arises. Several other vegetables and fruits, eggs, meat and fish also need this processing.

Our processing levels are generally less than 5% in most fresh products compared to 20-50% in south-east Asian economies. This is the biggest investment opportunity in transforming the food sector, creating millions of jobs in the rural non-farm sector, and connecting hinterlands with the fast growing middle class, while keeping food inflation below 4%.

(Ashok Gulati is Chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices. Co-authored with Shweta Saini, consultant, ICRIER. Views are personal)


The Economic Times, 30 September, 2013, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/food-sector-reform-tackling-the-runaway-food-inflation-train/articleshow/23275705.cms


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