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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | For monsoon, farmers hopes still Met by age-old wisdom by V Yogasri Poorna

For monsoon, farmers hopes still Met by age-old wisdom by V Yogasri Poorna

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published Published on Jun 30, 2010   modified Modified on Jun 30, 2010


SUKHRAM Gopal, a farmer from Bagli village in Devas district in Madhya Pradesh, relies on gut feel and tradition to be doubly sure that the rains will bless him with a bountiful harvest. On the day of the Gangaur festival, which typically falls in March-April and is a celebration of the monsoon and harvesting, Gopal starts sowing wheat. “Nine days later, if the seeds grow in a uniform manner, we consider it a good omen,” says Gopal. Farmers like Gopal still depend on anything from their own intuition to cyclones and the movement of stars to predict weather patterns, in a country where nearly 60% of the population is engaged in agriculture and depends on monsoon rains for cultivation. The traditions are thriving, despite the Met office cutting the margin of error in weather forecasts and technology improving access to scientific predictions. Farmers, though, believe time-tested tools hold their own wisdom when it comes to understanding the ways of a whimsical monsoon. Gopal and crop-growers in his region, for instance, run a quick assessment of ripening fruit. If the fruit of the silk-cotton tree ripens well, they believe cotton will have a good harvesting year. And if the fruit of shallaki or the Indian frankincense, also known as bot is ripe, corn has good prospects.

Many farmers consider the intensity of heat in the second half of May as a fairly accurate indicator of whether the monsoon will be good. There are also those who believe celestial configurations can help unravel the mystery. “The heat recorded around the period of the Rohini nakshatra (star) is believed to be a key indicator of the monsoon situation in the country. The warmer it is, the better the monsoon,” said Vijay Shankar of Samaj Pragati Sahyog in MP, who works with farmers.

Farmers in Andhra Pradesh usually prepare their land for cotton and maize cultivation during Rohini Karthe in the last week of May, when the heat is expected to be at its peak, and wait for the rain for sowing. Even if the early rainfall is scanty, they don’t lose hope because July and August are typically the best monsoon months in the state. “When there is intense heat for three to four days before the advent of the monsoon, we expect rain clouds to gather soon,” says Gopal Reddy, a young farmer from Medak district in Andhra Pradesh.

Farmers follow celestial stars like Arudra and Mrigasira to predict the monsoon, he says. “My father tells me the date of the monsoon’s arrival is June 7, but in recent years we are used to getting it in the second or third week of June,” he says, adding, farmers also look out for cyclonic developments in the Bay of Bengal. Last year, the rains were delayed by a month, but this year, there were a few good showers and kharif sowing is on, he says.

Another indicator for many farmers across the country is the rainfall pattern over decades. “In the 1960s, we witnessed a bad monsoon, while the 1970s had good rainfall. Going by subsequent trends, this decade will be a good year for the monsoon,” says Shankar.

Some farmers take into account a four-year rainfall cycle pattern to predict the monsoon. “In some places, the belief is that after every three good monsoons there will be a bad one. Since they had below-average rainfall last year, farmers expect a good monsoon this year,” says V Chiranjeevi, head of project, access development, Andhra Pradesh.

Despite having all the traditional tools at their disposal, farmers don’t ignore Met predictions. “Farmers correlate Met analysis with their hunch before sowing,” says Chiranjeevi, adding that with a mix of both, farmers are better off these days.

Reddy says most farmers are increasingly clued in to Met department forecasts in districts like Nizamabad, Guntur and Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh. They are happy that the forecasts take into account previous years’ data, he adds.

“We go by Met updates as well as the previous years’ rainfall patterns before sowing on a large scale. We also get inputs from various TV and radio programmes on farming,” says Medak farmer Venkatram Reddy. He says a timely monsoon and the amount of rainfall will determine what crops farmers can go in for, though he also depends on his borewell to irrigate his farm. “Usually, I cultivate four acres of cotton, four acres of paddy and one acre of maize. If the rainfall is scanty, I have to depend on my well or reduce paddy acreage,” says Reddy.


The Economic Times, 29 June, 2010, http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=ETNEW&BaseHref=ETD/2010/06/29&PageLabel=11&EntityId=Ar01100&ViewMode=HT


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