Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Forget Inflation Targeting -Prem Shankar Jha    </title>
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-The Indian Express


&nbsp;


It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth&nbsp;


&nbsp;


In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now..."/>
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-The Indian Express


&nbsp;


It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth&nbsp;


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In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now..." />
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                            <div style="text-align: justify">-The Indian Express</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth</em>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now another set of policies is completing its economic ruin. The architect of this is the RBI and its instrument of choice, the interest rate.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Indian business has been begging for a lowering of interest rates since July 2011, basically to no avail. In November 2014, when its confident expectation that the Narendra Modi government would bring them down began to evaporate, it swamped the meeting of the World Economic Forum in Delhi with entreaties for an immediate reduction. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has urged the RBI to lower interest rates several times since the BJP came to power &mdash; as have Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha and Arvind Subramanian, the chief economic advisor. All three have tried to avoid a head-on collision with the RBI and preferred to appeal to its good sense. But Governor Raghuram Rajan has fobbed off these pleas with two measly quarter-percentage point cuts, which have done nothing to revive consumption, investment or sentiment. Instead of recognising his error, Rajan has again ignored the government&rsquo;s pleas and speciously blamed &ldquo;a spike in food inflation&rdquo; &mdash; an annual occurrence during lean season &mdash; and commercial banks&rsquo; refusal to pass on his rate cuts to borrowers for his &ldquo;inability&rdquo; to cut rates any further.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The confrontation between the RBI and the finance ministry seems total. The government has tried to find a face-saving way of reasserting its authority by proposing to set up a seven-person committee to determine interest rates, provided that four members are its, and not the RBI&rsquo;s, nominees.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">New Delhi has the right to overrule the RBI, but is intimidated by the fear that the international financial community will see this as a return to autarchy and shy away from investing in India. Rajan has sought to reinforce the RBI&rsquo;s autonomy by championing the doctrine, popular among central bankers, of &ldquo;inflation targeting&rdquo;. This requires central banks to aim for a target &mdash; ideally of low, steady inflation because that creates the best climate for investment &mdash; and raise or lower interest rates accordingly. The rationale is that investors need price stability to make decisions, so stability automatically maximises investment and thus growth. Rajan has claimed that, far from destroying growth, his policies are safeguarding India&rsquo;s capacity for sustained growth &ldquo;in the long run&rdquo;.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The trouble with this doctrine, as Joseph Stiglitz argued in a paper, is that changes in interest rates lead directly to changes in prices and output only when all the conditions postulated for general equilibrium are satisfied. That is, there are many producers competing in the market and no trade unions, wages and prices are completely flexible, and there is full or near-full employment of labour and capital. Since this is a mathematical ideal that has never existed in the real world, except perhaps momentarily at the very beginning of industrialisation, inflation targeting has no theoretical foundation. The case for it rests solely on its observed effects. And here the evidence of a correlation, which was slender even before 2008, has disappeared even in the industrialised countries.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">What Stiglitz pointed out in the context of the global financial crisis holds equally true for India&rsquo;s crisis of growth. For inflation targeting has neither brought down inflation nor promoted economic growth. On the contrary, through the last seven years, inflation has declined and growth has spurted only when interest rates have come down.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The reason, as Stiglitz warned in 2008, is that in India, as in most developing countries, inflation in both 2006-08 and 2009-11 came through international trade because of huge global oil, food and commodity price increases triggered by China&rsquo;s voracious demand. By the same token, inflation measured by every price index except the cost of living, disappeared rapidly in the second half of 2014 because of the severe, and deepening, slump in the Chinese economy. Curbing the growth of demand in India did not make the slightest dent. What it did was to kill the growth of manufacturing and employment.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Jha is a senior journalist and author</em></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 August, 2015, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Forget Inflation Targeting -Prem Shankar Jha    </title>
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-The Indian Express


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It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth&nbsp;


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In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now..."/>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Forget Inflation Targeting -Prem Shankar Jha</h1>
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		 Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Aug 11, 2015</span>
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                            <div style="text-align: justify">-The Indian Express</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth</em>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now another set of policies is completing its economic ruin. The architect of this is the RBI and its instrument of choice, the interest rate.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Indian business has been begging for a lowering of interest rates since July 2011, basically to no avail. In November 2014, when its confident expectation that the Narendra Modi government would bring them down began to evaporate, it swamped the meeting of the World Economic Forum in Delhi with entreaties for an immediate reduction. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has urged the RBI to lower interest rates several times since the BJP came to power &mdash; as have Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha and Arvind Subramanian, the chief economic advisor. All three have tried to avoid a head-on collision with the RBI and preferred to appeal to its good sense. But Governor Raghuram Rajan has fobbed off these pleas with two measly quarter-percentage point cuts, which have done nothing to revive consumption, investment or sentiment. Instead of recognising his error, Rajan has again ignored the government&rsquo;s pleas and speciously blamed &ldquo;a spike in food inflation&rdquo; &mdash; an annual occurrence during lean season &mdash; and commercial banks&rsquo; refusal to pass on his rate cuts to borrowers for his &ldquo;inability&rdquo; to cut rates any further.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The confrontation between the RBI and the finance ministry seems total. The government has tried to find a face-saving way of reasserting its authority by proposing to set up a seven-person committee to determine interest rates, provided that four members are its, and not the RBI&rsquo;s, nominees.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">New Delhi has the right to overrule the RBI, but is intimidated by the fear that the international financial community will see this as a return to autarchy and shy away from investing in India. Rajan has sought to reinforce the RBI&rsquo;s autonomy by championing the doctrine, popular among central bankers, of &ldquo;inflation targeting&rdquo;. This requires central banks to aim for a target &mdash; ideally of low, steady inflation because that creates the best climate for investment &mdash; and raise or lower interest rates accordingly. The rationale is that investors need price stability to make decisions, so stability automatically maximises investment and thus growth. Rajan has claimed that, far from destroying growth, his policies are safeguarding India&rsquo;s capacity for sustained growth &ldquo;in the long run&rdquo;.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The trouble with this doctrine, as Joseph Stiglitz argued in a paper, is that changes in interest rates lead directly to changes in prices and output only when all the conditions postulated for general equilibrium are satisfied. That is, there are many producers competing in the market and no trade unions, wages and prices are completely flexible, and there is full or near-full employment of labour and capital. Since this is a mathematical ideal that has never existed in the real world, except perhaps momentarily at the very beginning of industrialisation, inflation targeting has no theoretical foundation. The case for it rests solely on its observed effects. And here the evidence of a correlation, which was slender even before 2008, has disappeared even in the industrialised countries.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">What Stiglitz pointed out in the context of the global financial crisis holds equally true for India&rsquo;s crisis of growth. For inflation targeting has neither brought down inflation nor promoted economic growth. On the contrary, through the last seven years, inflation has declined and growth has spurted only when interest rates have come down.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The reason, as Stiglitz warned in 2008, is that in India, as in most developing countries, inflation in both 2006-08 and 2009-11 came through international trade because of huge global oil, food and commodity price increases triggered by China&rsquo;s voracious demand. By the same token, inflation measured by every price index except the cost of living, disappeared rapidly in the second half of 2014 because of the severe, and deepening, slump in the Chinese economy. Curbing the growth of demand in India did not make the slightest dent. What it did was to kill the growth of manufacturing and employment.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Jha is a senior journalist and author</em></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 August, 2015, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Forget Inflation Targeting -Prem Shankar Jha    </title>
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-The Indian Express


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It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth&nbsp;


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In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now..."/>
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-The Indian Express


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It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth&nbsp;


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In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now..." />
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                            <div style="text-align: justify">-The Indian Express</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth</em>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now another set of policies is completing its economic ruin. The architect of this is the RBI and its instrument of choice, the interest rate.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Indian business has been begging for a lowering of interest rates since July 2011, basically to no avail. In November 2014, when its confident expectation that the Narendra Modi government would bring them down began to evaporate, it swamped the meeting of the World Economic Forum in Delhi with entreaties for an immediate reduction. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has urged the RBI to lower interest rates several times since the BJP came to power &mdash; as have Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha and Arvind Subramanian, the chief economic advisor. All three have tried to avoid a head-on collision with the RBI and preferred to appeal to its good sense. But Governor Raghuram Rajan has fobbed off these pleas with two measly quarter-percentage point cuts, which have done nothing to revive consumption, investment or sentiment. Instead of recognising his error, Rajan has again ignored the government&rsquo;s pleas and speciously blamed &ldquo;a spike in food inflation&rdquo; &mdash; an annual occurrence during lean season &mdash; and commercial banks&rsquo; refusal to pass on his rate cuts to borrowers for his &ldquo;inability&rdquo; to cut rates any further.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The confrontation between the RBI and the finance ministry seems total. The government has tried to find a face-saving way of reasserting its authority by proposing to set up a seven-person committee to determine interest rates, provided that four members are its, and not the RBI&rsquo;s, nominees.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">New Delhi has the right to overrule the RBI, but is intimidated by the fear that the international financial community will see this as a return to autarchy and shy away from investing in India. Rajan has sought to reinforce the RBI&rsquo;s autonomy by championing the doctrine, popular among central bankers, of &ldquo;inflation targeting&rdquo;. This requires central banks to aim for a target &mdash; ideally of low, steady inflation because that creates the best climate for investment &mdash; and raise or lower interest rates accordingly. The rationale is that investors need price stability to make decisions, so stability automatically maximises investment and thus growth. Rajan has claimed that, far from destroying growth, his policies are safeguarding India&rsquo;s capacity for sustained growth &ldquo;in the long run&rdquo;.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The trouble with this doctrine, as Joseph Stiglitz argued in a paper, is that changes in interest rates lead directly to changes in prices and output only when all the conditions postulated for general equilibrium are satisfied. That is, there are many producers competing in the market and no trade unions, wages and prices are completely flexible, and there is full or near-full employment of labour and capital. Since this is a mathematical ideal that has never existed in the real world, except perhaps momentarily at the very beginning of industrialisation, inflation targeting has no theoretical foundation. The case for it rests solely on its observed effects. And here the evidence of a correlation, which was slender even before 2008, has disappeared even in the industrialised countries.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">What Stiglitz pointed out in the context of the global financial crisis holds equally true for India&rsquo;s crisis of growth. For inflation targeting has neither brought down inflation nor promoted economic growth. On the contrary, through the last seven years, inflation has declined and growth has spurted only when interest rates have come down.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The reason, as Stiglitz warned in 2008, is that in India, as in most developing countries, inflation in both 2006-08 and 2009-11 came through international trade because of huge global oil, food and commodity price increases triggered by China&rsquo;s voracious demand. By the same token, inflation measured by every price index except the cost of living, disappeared rapidly in the second half of 2014 because of the severe, and deepening, slump in the Chinese economy. Curbing the growth of demand in India did not make the slightest dent. What it did was to kill the growth of manufacturing and employment.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Jha is a senior journalist and author</em></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 August, 2015, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

Forget Inflation Targeting -Prem Shankar Jha

Published on Aug 11, 2015   Modified on Aug 11, 2015

-The Indian Express   It has only managed to kill manufacturing and employment growth    In the 1950s, misapplied economic policies gave India one of the lowest growth rates in the world for 30 years, and left it behind East and Southeast Asia. Now another set of policies is completing its economic ruin. The architect of this is the RBI and its instrument of choice, the interest rate. Indian business has been begging for a lowering of interest rates since July 2011, basically to no avail. In November 2014, when its confident expectation that the Narendra Modi government would bring them down began to evaporate, it swamped the meeting of the World Economic Forum in Delhi with entreaties for an immediate reduction. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has urged the RBI to lower interest rates several times since the BJP came to power — as have Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha and Arvind Subramanian, the chief economic advisor. All three have tried to avoid a head-on collision with the RBI and preferred to appeal to its good sense. But Governor Raghuram Rajan has fobbed off these pleas with two measly quarter-percentage point cuts, which have done nothing to revive consumption, investment or sentiment. Instead of recognising his error, Rajan has again ignored the government’s pleas and speciously blamed “a spike in food inflation” — an annual occurrence during lean season — and commercial banks’ refusal to pass on his rate cuts to borrowers for his “inability” to cut rates any further. The confrontation between the RBI and the finance ministry seems total. The government has tried to find a face-saving way of reasserting its authority by proposing to set up a seven-person committee to determine interest rates, provided that four members are its, and not the RBI’s, nominees. New Delhi has the right to overrule the RBI, but is intimidated by the fear that the international financial community will see this as a return to autarchy and shy away from investing in India. Rajan has sought to reinforce the RBI’s autonomy by championing the doctrine, popular among central bankers, of “inflation targeting”. This requires central banks to aim for a target — ideally of low, steady inflation because that creates the best climate for investment — and raise or lower interest rates accordingly. The rationale is that investors need price stability to make decisions, so stability automatically maximises investment and thus growth. Rajan has claimed that, far from destroying growth, his policies are safeguarding India’s capacity for sustained growth “in the long run”. The trouble with this doctrine, as Joseph Stiglitz argued in a paper, is that changes in interest rates lead directly to changes in prices and output only when all the conditions postulated for general equilibrium are satisfied. That is, there are many producers competing in the market and no trade unions, wages and prices are completely flexible, and there is full or near-full employment of labour and capital. Since this is a mathematical ideal that has never existed in the real world, except perhaps momentarily at the very beginning of industrialisation, inflation targeting has no theoretical foundation. The case for it rests solely on its observed effects. And here the evidence of a correlation, which was slender even before 2008, has disappeared even in the industrialised countries. What Stiglitz pointed out in the context of the global financial crisis holds equally true for India’s crisis of growth. For inflation targeting has neither brought down inflation nor promoted economic growth. On the contrary, through the last seven years, inflation has declined and growth has spurted only when interest rates have come down. The reason, as Stiglitz warned in 2008, is that in India, as in most developing countries, inflation in both 2006-08 and 2009-11 came through international trade because of huge global oil, food and commodity price increases triggered by China’s voracious demand. By the same token, inflation measured by every price index except the cost of living, disappeared rapidly in the second half of 2014 because of the severe, and deepening, slump in the Chinese economy. Curbing the growth of demand in India did not make the slightest dent. What it did was to kill the growth of manufacturing and employment. Jha is a senior journalist and author

The Indian Express, 11 August, 2015, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/forget-inflation-targeting/

Tagged with: Inflation industrial growth Economic Growth Interest Rates Employment

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