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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | GDP flop-show: Manmohan Singh has the last laugh in war of words with Narendra Modi over note ban -Dinesh Unnikrishnan

GDP flop-show: Manmohan Singh has the last laugh in war of words with Narendra Modi over note ban -Dinesh Unnikrishnan

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published Published on Jun 4, 2017   modified Modified on Jun 4, 2017
-Firstpost.com

If one purely compare the January-March quarter GDP growth of fiscal year 2017 and fiscal year 2016, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s prediction that demonetisation will shave off 2 percentage points of India’s GDP has come true. In the January-March quarter of FY16, GDP grew by 9 percent, which has come down to 6.1 percent in the corresponding quarter this year— a near 3 percentage point difference. Even the full year GDP growth has come down to 7.1 percent in FY17 from 8 percent in the preceding year.

On 25 November last year, some two weeks after Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched demonetisation of Rs 500, Rs 1000 notes, Singh, also a former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, had said in his Parliament speech that demonetisation will cause the GDP growth to fall by 2 percent. The former PM called the move as a ‘monumental mismanagement’, ‘organized loot’ and ‘legalized plunder’. Singh, who is also a globally reputed economist, tore into Modi’s currency ban alleging that it will cause massive job losses and economic slowdown. His predictions have seemingly come true.

In his UP election rally in March this year, PM Modi had mocked Singh and ‘Harvard economists’ such as Amartya Sen who criticised demonetisation decision saying it takes ‘hard work’ more than ’Harvard’ to build the economy. “Kya kya bole. Parliament me bola, gaon, galliyon me jaakar chillaya, Bharat barbaad ho jayega. GDP 2 percent kam ho jayega, koi kehta kisan barbaad, fasal barbaad, berozgaari aajayegi.Daily ek jhoot” (What all they said: In Parliament they said; they shouted in the villages and streets that India will be ruined, GDP will reduce by 2 percent [points]; they said farmers and crops will be ruined and unemployment will increase. Daily one lie.” – Modi at the Deoria rally (read a News18 report here). In hindsight, Manmohan Singh proves to be right.

In the fourth quarter, GDP fell to 6.1 percent from 8 percent from the year-ago quarter, with notable slowdown in construction, financing/real estate sectors which were directly impacted with the cash crunch. The fall in GVA was even sharper to 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter from 8.7 percent in the Q4 period of previous year. The manufacturing sector has taken a major beating with the growth slowing from 12.7 percent in Q4 of last year to 5.3 percent in the January-March period now.

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Firstpost.com, 2 June, 2017, http://www.firstpost.com/india/gdp-flop-show-manmohan-singh-has-the-last-laugh-in-war-of-words-with-narendra-modi-over-note-ban-3508625.html


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